Assessment of the Fragility of the Municipal Waste Sector in Serbia Using System Dynamics Modelling

This research develops a novel methodology for municipal waste management in Serbia, based on system dynamics modelling. The methodology shows how a country and relevant institutions should address complexities in the waste management sector. Waste management is a critical issue globally, which heavily impacts the economic development of a country, including the general quality of life within a society. The designed simulation generates different scenarios of the Serbian municipal waste system for reaching the 2035 recycling rate targets. Methodologies such as the theory of constraints, fragility analysis, and systems dynamics were implemented in the model. The scenarios and fragility modelling were conducted with the system dynamics modelling methodology in the Ventity simulation environment. The designed model has elements of discrete event simulations, system dynamics, and agent-based modelling. Importantly, real-world data for the period of five years (from the year 2016 to 2020) was used in the case study. This research undoubtedly reveals that the informal sector is the key source of fragility to the dynamic system considered. During the considered period, the informal sector contributed 62.3% of all separated waste to the system. Consequently, this research concludes that for the waste sector in Serbia to reach the 2035 EU goals, the existing practice in waste management has to be changed significantly and will benefit from the modelling approach used here. The whole system is highly dependent on the informal sector, which, in its current form, is volatile, unregulated, and fragile to aggressive regulative policies.

Visualising Inequality: Modelling disparities in health outcomes

<p>The thesis begins to integrate some contemporary theorising in sociology, frameworks for explaining social disparities in population health, disciplines from System Dynamics modelling, and, D.D. Heckathorn’s model of ‘The Dynamics and Dilemmas of Collective Action’. Wilkinson and Marmot are recognised as leading participants in public discussion of population health disparities. The priorities they advocate are reflected in public statements of intent such as the statutory objective of New Zealand District Health Boards ‘to reduce, with a view to eliminating, health outcome disparities between various population groups . . .’ Sen’s advocacy for impartial governance when allocating freedom-based capabilities is considered as a core strategy for reducing disparities and promoting justice. The main question addressed is whether sociological theory can contribute to understanding the dynamics implied by Sen’s ‘idea of justice’. The conclusion is that the work of Runciman, Coleman, Turner, Lenski, Jasso and Heckathorn can be used to analyse the influence of corporate actors and sectoral strategies, which Wilkinson and Pickett referred to as ‘the elephant in the . . . room’ in discussions about determinants and the social gradient of health.</p>

Visualising Inequality: Modelling disparities in health outcomes

<p>The thesis begins to integrate some contemporary theorising in sociology, frameworks for explaining social disparities in population health, disciplines from System Dynamics modelling, and, D.D. Heckathorn’s model of ‘The Dynamics and Dilemmas of Collective Action’. Wilkinson and Marmot are recognised as leading participants in public discussion of population health disparities. The priorities they advocate are reflected in public statements of intent such as the statutory objective of New Zealand District Health Boards ‘to reduce, with a view to eliminating, health outcome disparities between various population groups . . .’ Sen’s advocacy for impartial governance when allocating freedom-based capabilities is considered as a core strategy for reducing disparities and promoting justice. The main question addressed is whether sociological theory can contribute to understanding the dynamics implied by Sen’s ‘idea of justice’. The conclusion is that the work of Runciman, Coleman, Turner, Lenski, Jasso and Heckathorn can be used to analyse the influence of corporate actors and sectoral strategies, which Wilkinson and Pickett referred to as ‘the elephant in the . . . room’ in discussions about determinants and the social gradient of health.</p>

Stochastic system dynamics modelling for climate change water scarcity assessment of a reservoir in the Italian Alps

Water management in mountain regions is facing multiple pressures due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. This is particularly relevant for mountain areas where water abundance in the past allowed for many anthropogenic activities, exposing them to future water scarcity. Here stochastic system dynamics modelling (SDM) was implemented to explore water scarcity conditions affecting the stored water and turbined outflows in the Santa Giustina (S. Giustina) reservoir (Autonomous Province of Trento, Italy). The analysis relies on a model chain integrating outputs from climate change simulations into a hydrological model, the output of which was used to test and select statistical models in an SDM for replicating turbined water and stored volume within the S. Giustina dam reservoir. The study aims at simulating future conditions of the S. Giustina reservoir in terms of outflow and volume as well as implementing a set of metrics to analyse volume extreme conditions. Average results on 30-year slices of simulations show that even under the short-term RCP4.5 scenario (2021–2050) future reductions for stored volume and turbined outflow are expected to be severe compared to the 14-year baseline (1999–2004 and 2009–2016; −24.9 % of turbined outflow and −19.9 % of stored volume). Similar reductions are expected also for the long-term RCP8.5 scenario (2041–2070; −26.2 % of turbined outflow and −20.8 % of stored volume), mainly driven by the projected precipitations having a similar but lower trend especially in the last part of the 2041–2070 period. At a monthly level, stored volume and turbined outflow are expected to increase for December to March (outflow only), January to April (volume only) depending on scenarios and up to +32.5 % of stored volume in March for RCP8.5 for 2021–2050. Reductions are persistently occurring for the rest of the year from April to November for turbined outflows (down to −56.3 % in August) and from May to December for stored volume (down to −44.1 % in June). Metrics of frequency, duration and severity of future stored volume values suggest a general increase in terms of low volume below the 10th and 20th percentiles and a decrease of high-volume conditions above the 80th and 90th percentiles. These results point at higher percentage increases in frequency and severity for values below the 10th percentile, while volume values below the 20th percentile are expected to last longer. Above the 90th percentile, values are expected to be less frequent than baseline conditions, while showing smaller severity reductions compared to values above the 80th percentile. These results call for the adoption of adaptation strategies focusing on water demand reductions. Months of expected increases in water availability should be considered periods for water accumulation while preparing for potential persistent reductions of stored water and turbined outflows. This study provides results and methodological insights that can be used for future SDM upscaling to integrate different strategic mountain socio-economic sectors (e.g. hydropower, agriculture and tourism) and prepare for potential multi-risk conditions.