Using system dynamics modelling to understand behaviour in UK commercial property markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Trevillion
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Systems Theory ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Research Tool ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Property ◽  
System Dynamics Modelling ◽  
Dynamics Modelling ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Property Markets

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to outline the benefits of using system dynamics modelling as a research tool to understand the dynamics of commercial property markets in the UK and their long-term behaviour. It highlights areas for future work.Design/methodology/approachThis is a concept paper that outlines a simple systems model of rental change in UK commercial property markets as a way of illustrating how a systems approach can be used to describe and model the market. The model concentrates on the user market and offers a view of market operation, according to which development activity is initiated by demand (linked to economic growth) and to which supply responds by producing development.FindingsThe model demonstrates how a systems approach can be used to model the impact of a wide range of market variables on rental growth. The approach allows non-linear modelling of the complex relationships and behavioural factors that are difficult to include in existing econometric models of the market. It highlights where existing knowledge is deficient, especially with regard to price elasticity of demand, the relationship between economic activity and take up, the potential impact of redevelopment on the supply of new property and rental growth and response times of various parts of the market development process to market signals. It outlines where further research is needed to incorporate real market data.Originality/valueDespite the wide application of the systems theory to business and other related areas, its use in commercial property research has been limited and has not gained much traction as a research tool. The work represents one of a very few studies applying the systems theory to the UK commercial property market.

System dynamics models for the simulation of sustainable urban development

Kybernetes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 460-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirjana Pejic Bach ◽  
Emil Tustanovski ◽  
Andrew W.H. Ip ◽  
Kai-Leung Yung ◽  
Vasja Roblek
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Environmental Problems ◽  
Sustainable Urban Development ◽  
System Modelling ◽  
Content Type ◽  
System Dynamics Modelling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future ◽  
Dynamics Modelling

Purpose System dynamics is a whole-system modelling and learning approach, useful for tackling non-linear problems, such as sustainable urban development. The purpose of this paper is to review system dynamics applications in the simulation of sustainable urban development over a period from 2005 to 2017. Design/methodology/approach The analysis reveals that the number of applications of system dynamics modelling in the area of urban sustainable development increased in the analysed period. Research has changed its focus from the modelling of environmental problems to more complex models, portraying the multidimensional socio-economic processes that have an impact on the sustainability of urban development. Analysed case studies most often use the behaviour reproduction test for model validation, but without a unified approach. In most cases, modelling has been done in China, Germany and the USA, while urban development in the Eastern European countries, Africa and Latin America has not often been investigated. This paper indicates the knowledge gaps and suggests future research directions. Findings Papers that report the use of system dynamics modelling reveal a wide range of applications in urban sustainability. The analysis shows significant emphasis on environmental problems, while the interest for modelling social problems has been increasing during the last several years. Most of the modelled problems examine the sustainability of resources (land, water) and waste management, which are used for insights into the reasons for the system behaviour, forecasting future behaviour and policy testing. Originality/value The presented models were developed in most cases for the purpose of understanding the phenomena examined, as well as the future use of the models in policy planning. This brings us back to the need for greater stakeholder involvement, not only in the initial phase, but also during the whole modelling process, which could increase understanding, use and ownership of the models in the future, and thus increase their practical application.

scholarly journals AN EVALUATION METHOD FOR BUSINESS MODELS IN PRODUCT-SERVICE SYSTEMS DESIGN

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 427-436
Author(s):  
Sanghyun Oh ◽  
Yoo S. Hong ◽  
Jihwan Lee ◽  
Yong Se Kim
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Business Model ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Systems Design ◽  
Economic Sustainability ◽  
Management Service ◽  
System Dynamics Modelling ◽  
Dynamics Modelling ◽  
Modelling Task

AbstractTo pursue business innovation with PSS, many different PSS concepts are designed and evaluated. Various business models of a PSS design concept are devised and evaluated as well. Evaluation of the economic sustainability of PSS business models is critical. This paper presents a systematic method to evaluate the economic sustainability of PSS business models using a system dynamics modelling template. System dynamics modelling task is challenging for practitioners due to the variety of variables comprising business model strategies and their complex interrelationships. To enable the modelling task, a system dynamics modelling template composed of six modules of customer acquisition, channel acquisition, profit creation, resource acquisition, PSS provision, and partnership pattern has been devised. The PSS business model evaluation method has been illustrated using a smart study experience management service system design case to demonstrate the proposed system dynamics modelling template can reflect the case-specific business model which consists of the particular business model strategies.

Using system dynamics to evaluate renewable electricity development in Malaysia

Kybernetes ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salman Ahmad ◽  
Razman bin Mat Tahar
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Capacity Expansion ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Flow Diagram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Policy Targets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment of Malaysia's renewable capacity target. Malaysia relies heavily on fossil fuels for electricity generation. To diversify the fuel-mix, a technology-specific target has been set by the government in 2010. Considering the complexity in generation expansion, there is a dire need for an assessment model that can evaluate policy in a feedback fashion. The study also aims to expand policy evaluation literature in electricity domain by taking a dynamic systems approach. Design/methodology/approach – System dynamics modelling and simulation approach is used in this study. The model variables, selected from literature, are constituted into casual loop diagram. Later, a stock and flow diagram is developed by integrating planning, construction, operation, and decision making sub-models. The dynamic interactions between the sub-sectors are analysed based on the short-, medium- and long-term policy targets. Findings – Annual capacity constructions fail to achieve short-, medium- and long-term targets. However, the difference in operational capacity and medium- and long-term target are small. In terms of technology, solar photovoltaic (PV) attains the highest level of capacity followed by biomass. Research limitations/implications – While financial calculations are crucial for capacity expansion decisions, currently they are not being modelled; this study primarily focuses on system delays and exogenous components only. Practical implications – A useful model that offers regulators and investors insights on system characteristics and policy targets simultaneously. Originality/value – This paper provides a model for evaluating policy for renewable capacity expansion development in a dynamic context, for Malaysia.

Cognitive risk culture and advanced roles of actors in risk governance: a case study

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 327-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruchi Agarwal ◽  
Sanjay Kallapur
Keyword(s):  
Systems Thinking ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Risk Governance ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cognitive Risk ◽  
Risk Culture ◽  
The Uk

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to explore the best practices for improving risk culture and defining the role of actors in risk governance.Design/methodology/approachThis paper presents an exemplar case of a British insurance company by using a qualitative case research approach.FindingsThe case study shows how the company was successful in changing from a compliance-based and defensive risk culture to a cognitive risk culture by using a systems thinking approach. Cognitive risk culture ensures that everybody understands risks and their own roles in risk governance. The change was accomplished by adding an operational layer between the first and second lines of defense and developing tools to better communicate risks throughout the organization.Practical implicationsPractitioners can potentially improve risk governance by using the company’s approach. The UK regulator’s initiative to improve risk culture can potentially be followed by other regulators.Originality/valueThis is among the few studies that describe actual examples of how a company can improve risk culture using the systems approach and how systems thinking simultaneously resolves several other issues such as poor risk reporting and lack of clarity in roles and responsibilities.

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