The impact of US macroeconomic news announcements on Chinese commodity futures

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 1927-1966
Author(s):  
Haidong Cai ◽  
Shamim Ahmed ◽  
Ying Jiang ◽  
Xiaoquan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Futures ◽  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
News Announcements ◽  
The Impact

Are hedge fund returns affected by media coverage of macroeconomic news?

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 427-439
Author(s):  
Sandip Dutta ◽  
James Thorson
Keyword(s):  
Hedge Funds ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Hedge Fund ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
News Announcements ◽  
Hedge Fund Returns ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Extant literature suggests that the difficulty associated with the interpretation of macroeconomic news announcements by the market in general in different economic environments, might be the reason why most studies do not find any significant relationship between real-sector macroeconomic variables and financial asset returns. This paper aims to use a different approach to measure macroeconomic news. The objective is to examine if a different measure of a macroeconomic news variable, constructed from media coverage of the same, significantly affects hedge fund returns. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a news index for unemployment, which is a real-sector variable, constructed from newspaper coverage of unemployment announcements and examine its impact on hedge fund returns. Findings Contrary to the other studies that examine the impact of macroeconomic news on hedge fund returns, the authors find that media coverage of unemployment news announcements significantly affects hedge fund returns. Practical implications Overall, this paper demonstrates that the manner in which the market interprets macroeconomic news announcements in different economic environments is probably a more relevant factor for hedge funds and is more likely to impact hedge fund returns. In conjunction with variables – constructed from media coverage of unemployment news announcements – that factor in the manner of interpretation, it is found that surprises also matter for hedge fund returns. This is an important consideration for hedge fund managers as well. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that examines the impact of media coverage of macroeconomic news announcements on hedge fund returns and finds significantly different results with real-sector macro variables.

A note on the impact of scheduled macroeconomic news announcements on implied volatility

2009 ◽  
Vol 16 (18) ◽  
pp. 1783-1789 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sami Vähämaa
Keyword(s):  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
News Announcements ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Macroeconomic News and Price Discovery in Indonesian Government Bond Market

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 98-107
Author(s):  
Dahlia Ervina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Forecast ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Price ◽  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
Indonesian Government ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
News Announcements ◽  
Bond Returns ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact

The study of macroeconomic news impact on government bond gets little attention, especially in emerging markets. Andritzky et al. (2007) and Nowak et al. (2011) study this impact for some emerging countries, but little attention given to Asian countries. The question about whether macroeconomic news have impacts on government bond is important, considering the large amount of government bonds outstanding in Indonesia and the importance of regulation to maintain the stabilization of bond price. This research use daily returns of Indonesian government bond benchmark series over five-year period to investigate the impact of domestic and global macroeconomic news announcements. We study the relationship using event study approach. Following common literature we use surprise component of macroeconomic news announcements, which will be defined as the difference between market expectation and the actual release of the macroeconomic news. We use economic forecast survey conducted by Bloomberg as the proxy of market expectations needed to calculate domestic (Indonesia) and global (US) macroeconomic news announcements surprises. We find that, for bond returns, surprises of global macroeconomic news announcements is more important than domestic ones, especially for recent years, while both surprises of global and domestic macroeconomic news announcements affect bond returns volatility.

scholarly journals Three Essays on the U.S. Treasury Market

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Rui Qiao
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
Treasury Securities ◽  
News Announcements ◽  
Belief Heterogeneity ◽  
Treasury Market ◽  
Order Books ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

<p>My thesis consists of three essays on market microstructure. Focusing on the U.S. Treasury market, I investigate several interesting research questions by using twelve years of BrokerTec order books of 2-, 5-, and 10-year on-the-run U.S. Treasury notes from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2015, and five years of BrokerTec order books of 3-, 7- and 30-year on-the-run U.S. Treasury securities from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2015. In the U.S. Treasury market, BrokerTec is one of the two dominant electronic communication networks (ECNs). According to my calculations by using BrokerTec order books from 2011 to 2015, the average daily trading volume of BrokerTec on-the-run U.S. Treasury securities is about 134.9 billion U.S. dollars, which accounts for about 26% of that of the total U.S. Treasury primary dealer activity. To help a wider audience better understand the importance of the research questions in the following three chapters, Chapter 1 gives a brief introduction to the U.S. Treasury market.  In Chapter 2, I investigate the impact of scheduled macroeconomic news announcements on the U.S. Treasury market efficiency. To control the microstructure noise, I employ a robust method to construct market inefficiency measures. I find that the U.S. Treasury market becomes less efficient starting from five minutes before news arrivals. The finding is robust for different sample periods, macroeconomic news announcements, and market inefficiency measures. Investor heterogeneity could explain the decreased market efficiency before scheduled news announcements.  In Chapter 3, I investigate the impact of workup trading protocols on the U.S. Treasury market quality. Each transaction on the lit pool opens a workup window, during which the BrokerTec trading platform continues to receive order submissions and modifications, but only matches workup orders that have the same prices. Each workup transaction starts a new counting down of the workup clock. A workup window naturally closes either after the workup times out or when a limit order is submitted at a better price. I find that the workup trading activities decrease the market quality, in aspects of market efficiency and market liquidity.  In Chapter 4, I empirically examine the role of heterogeneity in traders’ beliefs and public information shocks on traders’ order submission decisions around news announcements in the U.S. Treasury market. I find that during both the pre-announcement period and the post-announcement period, the traders tend to submit more market orders and aggressive limit orders when the market uncertainty is high. I also find that the belief heterogeneity influences investors’ trading behavior and order submission strategies around news announcements. The role of the belief heterogeneity on order aggressiveness depends on the type of news, and the magnitude of the information shocks. The impact of market uncertainty and belief heterogeneity influences traders’ submission of both of the market orders and aggressive limit orders.  In Chapter 5, I provide a summary on the research findings in Chapter 2, Chapter 3 and Chapter 4. I also discuss the contributions of this thesis to the literature.</p>

scholarly journals Three Essays on the U.S. Treasury Market

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Rui Qiao
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
Treasury Securities ◽  
News Announcements ◽  
Belief Heterogeneity ◽  
Treasury Market ◽  
Order Books ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

<p>My thesis consists of three essays on market microstructure. Focusing on the U.S. Treasury market, I investigate several interesting research questions by using twelve years of BrokerTec order books of 2-, 5-, and 10-year on-the-run U.S. Treasury notes from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2015, and five years of BrokerTec order books of 3-, 7- and 30-year on-the-run U.S. Treasury securities from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2015. In the U.S. Treasury market, BrokerTec is one of the two dominant electronic communication networks (ECNs). According to my calculations by using BrokerTec order books from 2011 to 2015, the average daily trading volume of BrokerTec on-the-run U.S. Treasury securities is about 134.9 billion U.S. dollars, which accounts for about 26% of that of the total U.S. Treasury primary dealer activity. To help a wider audience better understand the importance of the research questions in the following three chapters, Chapter 1 gives a brief introduction to the U.S. Treasury market.  In Chapter 2, I investigate the impact of scheduled macroeconomic news announcements on the U.S. Treasury market efficiency. To control the microstructure noise, I employ a robust method to construct market inefficiency measures. I find that the U.S. Treasury market becomes less efficient starting from five minutes before news arrivals. The finding is robust for different sample periods, macroeconomic news announcements, and market inefficiency measures. Investor heterogeneity could explain the decreased market efficiency before scheduled news announcements.  In Chapter 3, I investigate the impact of workup trading protocols on the U.S. Treasury market quality. Each transaction on the lit pool opens a workup window, during which the BrokerTec trading platform continues to receive order submissions and modifications, but only matches workup orders that have the same prices. Each workup transaction starts a new counting down of the workup clock. A workup window naturally closes either after the workup times out or when a limit order is submitted at a better price. I find that the workup trading activities decrease the market quality, in aspects of market efficiency and market liquidity.  In Chapter 4, I empirically examine the role of heterogeneity in traders’ beliefs and public information shocks on traders’ order submission decisions around news announcements in the U.S. Treasury market. I find that during both the pre-announcement period and the post-announcement period, the traders tend to submit more market orders and aggressive limit orders when the market uncertainty is high. I also find that the belief heterogeneity influences investors’ trading behavior and order submission strategies around news announcements. The role of the belief heterogeneity on order aggressiveness depends on the type of news, and the magnitude of the information shocks. The impact of market uncertainty and belief heterogeneity influences traders’ submission of both of the market orders and aggressive limit orders.  In Chapter 5, I provide a summary on the research findings in Chapter 2, Chapter 3 and Chapter 4. I also discuss the contributions of this thesis to the literature.</p>

The Impact of Speculation on Commodity Futures A Review of the Findings of 100 Empirical Studies

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Haase ◽  
Yvonne Seiler ◽  
Heinz Zimmermann
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Commodity Futures ◽  
The Impact

The Response of Individual Fx Dealers' Quoting Activity to Macroeconomic News Announcements'

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Walid Ben Omrane ◽  
Andréas Heinen
Keyword(s):  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
News Announcements

Market reaction to scheduled and unscheduled news announcements under varying economic conditions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Parveshsingh Seeballack
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Equity Risk Premium ◽  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
Equity Risk ◽  
News Announcements

The unifying theme of this dissertation is the study of the role of macroeconomic news announcements in the context of the equity market. We focus on two important areas of the asset pricing theory, namely price discovery and equity risk premium forecasting. Chapter 2 investigates the time-varying sensitivity of stock returns to scheduled macroeconomic news announcements (MNAs) using high-frequency data. We present new insights into how efficiently stock returns incorporate the informational content of MNAs. We further provide evidence that the stock market response to MNAs is cyclical, and finally we conclude Chapter 2 with an investigation into the factors driving the time-varying sensitivity of stock return to MNAs. Chapter 3 investigates the time-varying sensitivity of stock returns in the context of unscheduled macroeconomic news announcements using high-frequency data. We investigate the speed and persistence in stock returns’ response to unscheduled macro-news announcements, and whether the reactions are dependent on the state of the economy, or general investor sentiment level. Combined, Chapters 2 and 3 provide interesting insights into how equity market participants react to the arrival of scheduled and unscheduled macro-announcements, under varying economic conditions. Chapter 4 focuses on equity risk premium forecasting. We investigate the predictive ability of option-implied volatility variables at monthly horizon, under varying economic conditions. We innovate by constructing monthly announcement and non-announcement option-implied volatility predictors and assess whether the monthly announcement option-implied volatility predictors contain additional information for better out-of-sample predictions of the monthly equity risk premium. Each of the three empirical chapters explores a unique aspect of the asset pricing theory in the context of the U.S. equity market.

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