Measurement of Economic Forecast Accuracy: A Systematic Overview of the Empirical Literature

The primary purpose of the paper is to enable deeper insight into the measurement of economic forecast accuracy. The paper employs the systematic literature review as its research methodology. It is also the first systematic review of the measures of economic forecast accuracy conducted in scientific research. The citation-based analysis confirms the growing interest of researchers in the topic. Research on economic forecast accuracy is continuously developing and improving with the adoption of new methodological approaches. An overview of the limits and advantages of the methods used to assess forecast accuracy not only facilitate the selection and application of appropriate measures in future analytical works but also contribute to a better interpretation of the results. In addition to the presented advantages and disadvantages, the chronological presentation of methodological development (measures, tests, and strategies) provides an insight into the possibilities of further upgrading and improving the methodological framework. The review of empirical findings, in addition to insight into existing results, indicates insufficiently researched topics. All in all, the results presented in this paper can be a good basis and inspiration for creating new scientific contributions in future works.

Global cargo gravitation model: airports matter for forecasts

The reliability of forecast models in the aviation sector is an important factor for industry and policy makers likewise. Expanding airports and fleets usually is a cost and time intensive process, and in order to maintain efficient market behavior, accurate anticipation of future demand and structural changes is attempted. We present a new quantitative approach to air cargo forecasts utilizing global airport-dyadic ICAO CASS data in general linearized airport fixed effects gravity models. While the strong explanatory power of our time invariant constant model has its natural difficulties predicting a variety of smaller indicators from previous models found in literature, we achieve very good results for selected time variant variables as gross domestic product per capita or kerosene prices. This makes our model a perfect tool for forecast simulations: extrapolating general economic forecast data provided by IHS Markit yield similar results to Boeing cargo forecasts (2020), with a slight decrease in the long run. Additionally, we do not need to split or control our sample in regional groups due to airport fixed effects, which makes the model on the other hand suitable for country- and airport level forecasts as well. The utilization of a large unique bilateral freight data set also helps answering classical gravity model questions in aviation: we track the distance effect to a matter of sample selection, finding no significant interaction following state of the art gravity econometrics.

Prediction of Urban and Rural Tourism Economic Forecast Based on Machine Learning

With the rapid development of tourism, tourism revenue, as one of the important indicators to measure the development of the tourism economy, has high research value. The quasi-prediction of tourism revenue can drive the development of a series of related industries and accelerate the development of the domestic economy. When forecasting tourism income, it is necessary to examine the causal relationship between tourism income and local economic development. The traditional cointegration analysis method is to extract the promotion characteristics of tourism income to the local economy and construct a tourism income prediction model, but it cannot accurately describe the causal relationship between tourism income and local economic development and cannot accurately predict tourism income. We propose an optimized forecasting method of tourism revenue based on time series. This method first conducts a cointegration test on the time series data of the relationship between tourism income and local economic development, constructs a two-variable autoregressive model of tourism income and local economy, and uses the swarm intelligence method to test the causal relationship and the relationship between tourism income and local economic development, calculate the proportion of tourism industry, define the calculation result as the direct influence factor of tourism industry on the local economy, calculate the relevant effect of local tourism development and economic income, and construct tourism income optimization forecast model. The simulation results show that the model used can accurately predict tourism revenue.

Gold production in the Russian Federation: The analysis and forecast

Subject. The article discusses possible lines for improving the methodological framework of the long-term economic forecast of gold production in the Russian Federation, relying upon the mathematical apparatus of econometric models. Objectives. We devise an economic-mathematical model for predicting the gold production with respect to the specifics of the economic development in Russia’s gold mining industry. Methods. The study is based in the correlation and regression methods for analyzing publicly available statistical data on the gold market. The least square method is taken as the methodological approach to designing the economic-mathematical model for forecasting. Results. Each gold deposit is found to be distinctive, having its own qualities, which seriously differ from those of other gold deposit. As a result of the analysis, we discovered key factors, which significantly influence the gold production, such as demand and price for gold, the amount and quality of geological reserves of gold, the amount of investment to be made in geological prospecting, national exchange rate and key rate of the Bank of Russia. We substantiated the use of the linear three-factor model, which involves gold production volumes in Russia, demand for gold, national exchange rate and price for gold as regressors. According to our estimates, in the Russian Federation, gold production will have reached 370–380 tons by 2025. Conclusions. Based on the least square method, the structural forecast apparatus does not account for geological and geographic-economic distinctions of gold deposits due to their unique nature. Therefore, determining regressors for the model, we predominantly focuses on open access data.

Analysis of Manpower Planning Based on Digital Economy in Cianjur Regency

There are three main characteristics of labor problems in Indonesia: First, the high growth rate of the workforce due to the rapid flow of population growth entering the working age. Second, the number of the labor force is large, but the average has low education, and third, the labor force participation rate is high, but the average income of workers is low. This research uses qualitative methods with a descriptive analysis approach. The study was conducted in the Cianjur Regency area. Analysis of current and future employment conditions through quantitative descriptive analysis methods assisted by statistical tools. For this reason, the data used in the framework of this study are Susenas data. This research shows that the low quality of the population is a barrier to economic development. This is mainly due to the low level of education and knowledge of the workforce. The economy of Cianjur Regency in 2020 grew by 7.35%, and employment growth by 4.84%, with an elasticity of 0.6585. So that the number of job opportunities in 2015 was 354,201 people. Meanwhile, the economic forecast for Cianjur Regency in 2020 will grow by 7.72% and employment growth by 4.14%, with an employment elasticity of 0.5363. It is estimated that GRDP at the constant price of Cianjur Regency is Rp. 10,012.91 billion, and job opportunities created as many as 438,490 people.

An individually randomised controlled multi-centre pragmatic trial with embedded economic and process evaluations of early vocational rehabilitation compared with usual care for stroke survivors: study protocol for the RETurn to work After stroKE (RETAKE) trial

Background Return to work (RTW) is achieved by less than 50% of stroke survivors. The rising incidence of stroke among younger people, the UK economic forecast, and clinical drivers highlight the need for stroke survivors to receive support with RTW. However, evidence for this type of support is lacking. This randomised controlled trial (RCT) will investigate whether Early Stroke Specialist Vocational Rehabilitation (ESSVR) plus usual care (UC) (i.e. usual NHS rehabilitation) is more clinically and cost-effective for supporting post-stroke RTW, than UC alone. Methods Seven hundred sixty stroke survivors and their carers will be recruited from approximately 20 NHS stroke services. A 5:4 allocation ratio will be employed to randomise participants to receive ESSVR plus UC, or UC alone. The individually tailored ESSVR intervention will commence within 12 weeks of stroke onset and be delivered for up to 12 months as necessary by trained RETAKE occupational therapists in the community, participants’ homes or workplaces, and outpatient/inpatient therapy settings, via telephone, email, or SMS text message. Outcome data will be collected via self-report questionnaires administered by post or online at 3, 6, and 12 months follow-up. The primary outcome will be self-reported RTW and job retention at 12 months (minimum 2 h/week). Secondary outcomes will include mood, function, participation, health-related quality of life, confidence, intervention compliance, health and social care resource use, and mortality. An embedded economic evaluation will estimate cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses from National Health Service (NHS) and Personal Social Services (PSS) perspectives. An embedded process evaluation will employ a mixed methods approach to explore ESSVR implementation, contextual factors linked to outcome variation, and factors affecting NHS roll-out. Discussion This article describes the protocol for a multi-centre RCT evaluating the clinical- and cost-effectiveness of an early vocational rehabilitation intervention aimed at supporting adults to return to work following a stroke. Evidence favouring the ESSVR intervention would support its roll-out in NHS settings. Trial registration ISRCTN, ISRCTN12464275. Registered on 26 February 2018.

An individually randomised controlled multi-centre pragmatic trial with embedded economic and process evaluations of early vocational rehabilitation compared with usual care for stroke survivors: study protocol for the RETurn to work After stroKE (RETAKE) trial

Background: Return to work (RTW) is achieved by less than 50% of stroke survivors. The rising incidence of stroke among younger people, the UK economic forecast, and clinical drivers highlight the need for stroke survivors to receive support with RTW. However, evidence for this type of support is lacking. This randomised controlled trial (RCT) will investigate whether Early Stroke Specialist Vocational Rehabilitation (ESSVR) plus usual care (UC) (i.e., usual NHS rehabilitation) is more clinically and cost effective for supporting post-stroke RTW, than UC alone.Methods: 760 stroke survivors and their carers will be recruited from approximately 20 NHS stroke services. A 5:4 allocation ratio will be employed to randomise participants to receive ESSVR plus UC, or UC alone. The individually tailored ESSVR intervention will commence within 12 weeks of stroke onset and be delivered for up to 12 months as necessary by trained RETAKE occupational therapists in the community, participants’ homes or workplaces, outpatient/inpatient therapy settings, via telephone, email or SMS text message. Outcome data will be collected via self-report questionnaires administered by post or online at 3, 6, and 12 months follow-up. The primary outcome will be self-reported RTW and job retention at 12 months (minimum 2 hours/week). Secondary outcomes will include: mood; function; participation; health-related quality of life; confidence; intervention compliance; health and social care resource use; and mortality. An embedded economic evaluation will estimate cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses from National Health Service (NHS) and Personal Social Services (PSS) perspectives. An embedded process evaluation will employ a mixed methods approach to explore ESSVR implementation, contextual factors linked to outcome variation, and factors affecting NHS roll-out.Discussion: This article describes the protocol for a multi-centre RCT evaluating the clinical- and cost-effectiveness of an early vocational rehabilitation intervention aimed at supporting adults to return to work following a stroke. Evidence favouring the ESSVR intervention would support its roll-out in NHS settings.Trial registration: ISRCTN, ISRCTN12464275.Registered on 26th February 2018, http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN12464275.