The Response of Domestic Prices to Expected Exchange Rates

1992 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert M. Feinberg ◽  
Seth Kaplan
Author(s):  
Jeffry A. Frieden

This chapter summarizes key findings. This book makes a simple theoretical argument about the distributional implications of exchange rate policy. It suggests that economic actors with important cross-border interests, exposed to currency volatility, will tend to prefer more stable and predictable exchange rates. It also claims that tradables producers will, all else being equal, tend to prefer a depreciated real exchange rate. These concerns will be tempered by the extent of exchange rate pass-through—that is, the degree to which currency movements affect domestic prices. The analysis in this book shows that countries whose economic agents are more involved in cross-border trade are more likely to fix their exchange rates in order to reduce currency volatility. Countries with large groups susceptible to import or export competition—import-competing manufacturers and export farmers—are more likely to choose flexible exchange rates that allow currency depreciations. Governments facing an election encourage or allow currency appreciation that increases the purchasing power of consumers.


VUZF Review ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-25
Author(s):  
Оlena Chukurna

The article considers the transformation of the money function as a consequence of the impact of dollarization on the economic development of countries in the global context. The economic substantiation of the process of dollarization of the economy, which is connected with the function of money, is proved. The influence of dollarization on the macro – and macro levels of the economy is substantiated. Approaches to methods of estimating dollarization on the economic development of the country in the context of globalization are proposed. The article defines the degree of dependence of the machine-building industry of Ukraine on the processes of dollarization of the world economy through the use of the effect of transferring the dynamics of changes in exchange rates to the price dynamics in the machine-building industry. Using the ARIMA model, the effect of transferring the exchange rate to prices for mechanical engineering products is proved. The expediency of using the ARIMA forecasting model to predict the further spread of the effect of the change in exchange rates on prices. An approach is proposed to determine the sensitivity of domestic prices for the products of engineering enterprises to changes in the exchange rate through modified elasticity coefficients. It was determined factors affecting the size of the effect of transfer of the exchange rate on domestic prices for the products of machine-building enterprises.


1998 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 957 ◽  
Author(s):  
David C. Parsley ◽  
Helen A. Popper

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 260-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ranajoy Bhattacharyya ◽  
Bipradas Rit

This article attempts to determine the effect of nominal exchange rates on Indian exports between 1996 and 2014. We begin by assuming that the nominal exchange rate can affect export directly as well as indirectly via its pass through on domestic prices. The analysis is conducted with quarterly data after controlling for the effect of exchange rate volatility on exports. The main results that we get are the following: There is no direct evidence that the nominal exchange rate or its volatility influences exports. However, there is a significant relationship between the relative price ratio (domestic to foreign) and export. Further, we find strong evidence of pass through of the nominal exchange rate on prices (about 54%) in the long run. We interpret this result as an evidence of the nominal exchange rate affecting exports indirectly through domestic prices. The results suggest that the debate on the influence of exchange rates on Indian export is still an open one. JEL Classification: F14, E31, G15


2004 ◽  
pp. 112-122
Author(s):  
O. Osipova

After the financial crisis at the end of the 1990 s many countries rejected fixed exchange rate policy. However actually they failed to proceed to announced "independent float" exchange rate arrangement. This might be due to the "fear of floating" or an irreversible result of inflation targeting central bank policy. In the article advantages and drawbacks of fixed and floating exchange rate arrangements are systematized. Features of new returning to exchange rates stabilization and possible risks of such policy for Russia are considered. Special attention is paid to the issue of choice of a "target" currency composite which can minimize external inflation pass-through.


2014 ◽  
pp. 107-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Andryushin

The paper analyzes monetary policy of the Bank of Russia from 2008 to 2014. It presents the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators testifying to inability of the Bank of Russia to transit to inflation targeting regime. It is shown that the presence of short-term interest rates in the top borders of the percentage corridor does not allow to consider the key rate as a basic tool of monetary policy. The article justifies that stability of domestic prices is impossible with-out exchange rate stability. It is proved that to decrease excessive volatility on national consumer and financial markets it is reasonable to apply a policy of managing financial account, actively using for this purpose direct and indirect control tools for the cross-border flows of the private and public capital.


2014 ◽  
pp. 74-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vinh Vo Xuan

This paper investigates factors affecting Vietnam’s stock prices including US stock prices, foreign exchange rates, gold prices and crude oil prices. Using the daily data from 2005 to 2012, the results indicate that Vietnam’s stock prices are influenced by crude oil prices. In addition, Vietnam’s stock prices are also affected significantly by US stock prices, and foreign exchange rates over the period before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. There is evidence that Vietnam’s stock prices are highly correlated with US stock prices, foreign exchange rates and gold prices for the same period. Furthermore, Vietnam’s stock prices were cointegrated with US stock prices both before and after the crisis, and with foreign exchange rates, gold prices and crude oil prices only during and after the crisis.


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