In the ground-based arrival time control operation, the measurement of the arrival time error and the speed advisory to cancel it are performed at specific waypoint(s). It is generally recognized that the arrival time accuracy depends on the accuracy of trajectory prediction and control and the availability of information about the aircraft intent. Additionally, the position of the waypoint also determines the arrival time accuracy. Therefore, in this study, the feasibility of waypoint position optimization to improve the arrival time accuracy of aircraft controlled by ground-based speed advisory and its effectiveness are discussed. The models of flight time uncertainty and the arrival time control window were developed using the actual track and numerical weather forecast data. An optimization problem was formulated that defined the arrival time uncertainty at the terminal point as the objective function and numerically solved using sequential quadratic programming. Through numerical investigations, the feasibility of the waypoint position optimization and its effectiveness were clearly demonstrated in comparison with uniform arrangement cases. It was also clarified that the advantage of the multiple waypoint application was enhanced when larger arrival time control windows were available.
Exact energy–time uncertainty relation for arrival time by absorption
