The Natural Real Exchange Rate of the United States Dollar, and Determinants of Capital Flows

Author(s):  
Jerome L. Stein
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 379-390
Author(s):  
Candra Mustika ◽  
Erni Achmad

The purpose of this study was to determine and analyze the development of exchange rates, labor, and economic growth, and exports of Indonesia and Malaysia to China from 1993 to 2015 and to analyze the effect of exchange rates, labor, and economic growth on Indonesian and Malaysian exports to China from 1993 to 2015 Based on the results of research The development of Indonesian exports to China fluctuated or fluctuated during the period 1993 to 2015 with an average of 13.95%, while the rupiah exchange rate against the United States dollar and economic growth also fluctuated the average growth the rupiah exchange rate against the United States dollar was 14.52%, and the average economic growth of 4.69% labor also fluctuated with an average growth of 1.72%. Based on the results of the panel data regression shows the exchange rate variable has a significant negative effect on exports to China, the labor variable has a positive and significant effect on exports to China, while the economic growth variable has no significant effect on exports to China.  


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Özlem Taşseven ◽  
Naci Yılmaz

The main objective of this study is to investigate the short and the long run relationships between bilateral export performance of China to United States using variables such as the real exchange rate of dollar to yuan, the growth of per capita US GDP, the growth of per capita Chinese GDP. The annual data covers the period between 2001 and 2018. The Johansen testing approach to cointegration is performed in the estimation process. The causalities among the variables in the model are determined based on the estimated models. The empirical results reveal that the variables of interest are cointegrated. Real exchange rate has no significant effect on Chinese exports to the US, whereas the growth of per capita US GDP and the growth of per capita GDP of China have positive and significant effects. Our findings suggest that United States should concentrate on the growth of both two countries rather than focusing on the low level of Chinese domestic currency.


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. 1607
Author(s):  
Evi Aninatin Ni'matul Choiriyah ◽  
Ilmiawan Auwalin

This study aims to determine the effect of world commodity prices on agriculture, energy, fertilizer, metals and minerals, precious metals, inflation, exchange rate of the United States Dollar (USD), Foreign Direct Investment, human resources on economics of Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) which is proxied in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the 2009-2018 period. In this study, there are two models regarding the human resources variable, namely total population and labor force. Random Effect Model (REM) is used in this study to examine the relationship of independent variables to the dependent variable, both partially and simultaneously. The findings of this study, both the first and second models show that commodity prices in the agriculture, fertilizer, metal and mineral sectors, Foreign Direct Investment, and inflation have a negative and significant effect on the GDP of the OIC countries. Meanwhile, commodity prices in the energy sector, precious metals, and the exchange rate of the United States Dollar (USD) have a positive and significant effect on the GDP of the OIC countries. As well as the human resources variable, both the population and the labor force also have a positive and significant effect on the GDP of the OIC countries. This paper can be considered for the government or related institutions and agencies in formulating policies or regulations to improve and maintain economic stability in each OIC member country.Keywords: Macroeconomics, World commodities prices, OIC, and GDP


Author(s):  
Junwook Chi

by Junwook ChiThis paper aims to improve understanding of the long-run impacts of the gross domestic product (GDP), real exchange rate, and the producer price index (PPI) on U.S.-Canada bilateral freight flows in a dynamic framework. Special attention is given to cross-border exports and imports by truck, rail, pipeline, and air. Using the fully modified ordinary least squares (FM-OLS) approach, the paper finds that the GDP of the importing country is a pronounced factor influencing U.S.-Canada cross-border trade, suggesting that economic growth of the country is a powerful driver in the relative intensity of bilateral freight flows. The real exchange rate tends to be positively associated with U.S. imports, but negatively associated with U.S. exports, indicating that the U.S. dollar depreciation against the Canadian dollar increases demand for U.S. commodities in Canada, but weakens demand for Canadian commodities in the United States. The long-run effects of the selected economic variables on cross-border exports and imports are found to vary by mode of transportation. The Canadian GDP has a positive and significant effect on U.S. freight exports by all transportation modes, but U.S. exports by pipeline are more sensitive to a change in Canadian GDP than U.S. exports by truck and rail. The findings in this paper provide important policy and managerial implications for cross-border transportation planning in the United States and Canada.


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