Exploring and Communicating Risk: Scenario-Based Workshops

Author(s):  
Simon French ◽  
John Maule
2020 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Mathias Nittmann ◽  
Curtis E. Margo

<b><i>Aim:</i></b> The aim of this study was to discuss and illustrate the role age-conditional probability has in communicating risk of developing ocular and ocular adnexal malignancies. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> Cross-sectional incidence for retinoblastoma, uveal melanoma, conjunctival melanoma, and lacrimal gland carcinomas from 2000 to 2017 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Incidence rates were age-adjusted to the 2000 United States population. Age-adjusted incidence was converted to age-interval and cumulative risks. Outcomes were examined in 20-year intervals and cumulatively for adult cancers and yearly for retinoblastoma. <b><i>Results:</i></b> The risk of each malignancy displayed age-dependent variation. For adult malignancies, men were at higher risk at most age intervals. Uveal melanoma had the greatest cumulative lifetime risk. The probability of developing retinoblastoma declines precipitously after age 3 years. <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> Age-conditional probability of developing cancer is a conceptually friendly means of understanding and communicating risk. It is particularly useful in comparing the risks of uncommon or rare cancers, such as those found in and around the eye. The assessment of risk in terms of age-conditional probability is a versatile and an underutilized pedagogical tool.


2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 533-550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudha Arlikatti ◽  
Hassan A. Taibah ◽  
Simon A. Andrew

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the information channels used by public and nonprofit organizations to communicate disaster risk information to Colonias residents in Hidalgo County, Texas. It seeks to find creative and proactive solutions for organizations to improve risk education to these constituents. Design/methodology/approach – Initially a snowball sampling technique was used to conduct six face-to-face interviews. This was followed by an online survey sent to 64 reputational referrals, of which 23 completed the survey, generating a response rate of 34 percent. A comparative analysis between public and nonprofit organizations and the Fischer's exact test were employed to analyze the data. Findings – Channel preferences for providing risk information varied with public organizations using the television (TV) and the nonprofit organizations using bilingual staff for outreach. The television, radio, public events, and bilingual staff were considered to be the most effective while social media (Facebook, Twitter, and city web sites) was not considered at all by both groups. Lack of funding and staffing problems were identified as the primary challenges. Research limitations/implications – One limitation is that the paper focusses on organizations serving Spanish speakers in the Texas Colonias. Future research needs to investigate how other localities at border sites where culturally and linguistically diverse groups might reside, receive and understand risk information. The role of cross-national organizations in creating internationally coordinated plans for disaster communication should also be explored. Originality/value – It highlights the challenges faced by organizations in communicating risk, especially in border communities where culturally and linguistically diverse groups reside.


Author(s):  
Roja Ezzati Amini ◽  
Eva Michelaraki ◽  
Christos Katrakazas ◽  
Christelle Al Haddad ◽  
Bart De Vos ◽  
...  

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-72
Author(s):  
Catherine Rimmer ◽  
Caroline Harvey
Keyword(s):  

2020 ◽  
Vol 102 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-54
Author(s):  
Robert Wheeler

Each month we take a close look at a recent legal case with implications for the surgical profession.


2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 1081-1118 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Gehl ◽  
C. Quinet ◽  
G. Le Cozannet ◽  
E. Kouokam ◽  
P. Thierry

Abstract. This paper presents an integrated approach to conduct a scenario-based volcanic risk assessment on a variety of exposed assets, such as residential buildings, cultivated areas, network infrastructures or individual strategic buildings. The focus is put on the simulation of scenarios, based on deterministic adverse events input, which are applied to the case-study of an effusive eruption on the Mount Cameroon volcano, resulting in the damage estimation of the assets located in the area. The work is based on the recent advances in the field of seismic risk. A software for systemic risk scenario analysis developed within the FP7 project SYNER-G has been adapted to address the issue of volcanic risk. Most significant improvements include the addition of vulnerability models adapted to each kind of exposed element and the possibility to quantify the successive potential damages inflicted by a sequence of adverse events (e.g. lava flows, tephra fall, etc.). The use of an object-oriented architecture gives the opportunity to model and compute the physical damage of very disparate types of infrastructures under the same framework. Finally, while the risk scenario approach is limited to the assessment of the physical impact of adverse events, a specific focus on strategic infrastructures and a dialogue with stakeholders helps in evaluating the potential wider indirect consequences of an eruption.


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