scholarly journals Measuring the Dark Figure of Crime in Geographic Areas: Small Area Estimation from the Crime Survey for England and Wales

Author(s):  
David Buil-Gil ◽  
Juanjo Medina ◽  
Natalie Shlomo

Abstract For decades, criminologists have been aware of the severe consequences of the dark figure of police records for crime prevention strategies. Crime surveys are developed to address the limitations of police statistics as crime data sources, and estimates produced from surveys can mitigate biases in police data. This paper produces small area estimates of crimes unknown to the police at local and neighbourhood levels from the Crime Survey for England and Wales to explore the geographical inequality of the dark figure of crime. The dark figure of crime is larger not only in small cities that are deprived but also in wealthy municipalities. The dark figure is also larger in suburban, low-housing neighbourhoods with large concentrations of unqualified citizens, immigrants and non-Asian minorities.

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 395-407 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernard Baffour ◽  
Denise Silva ◽  
Alinne Veiga ◽  
Christine Sexton ◽  
James J. Brown

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
KAUKO AROMAA ◽  
MARTTI LEHTI

Problem. Police statistics are the most comprehensive continuous database on crime in most industrialized countries. They also form an important source for quantitative criminological research. They are produced primarily for administrative use and their definitions are closely connected with national legal systems. Because of this, they comprise only a selected and biased part of crime and their comparability across jurisdictions is usually poor. This also applies to their comparability with other information sources of crime, including victimization surveys.Aim. In this article, we demonstrate that by including a few basic descriptive variables (referring to the main characteristics of each criminal case) in the existing police data collecting systems, we can hugely improve their information value and their comparability.Method. We have used empirical data from Finland as an example. We have coded a randomized data sample of the assault offences reported to the police in 2005 by using two descriptive variables, proposed by the Expert Group on Violence, appointed by the Finnish National Council for Crime Prevention. After that, we have compared the results with those of the 2006 National Victimization Survey that referred to the same period and used similar descriptive variables.Results. Even using just the fe additional variables, the comparison of the two data sources gave amply new information of the measured characteristics, and in the process of both data sources. Some of the results were expected; for example, the comparison showed that violence recorded in police statistics was in terms of the injuries for men and women on average clearly more serious than the violence captured by the victimization survey. Similarly, partner violence by men had clearly been recorded in the police data more completely than partner violence by women. Some were, however, unexpected: according to our findings, for example, partner violence in private locations had the highest recording rate of the types of violence against women.Conclusions. We are proposing that national statistics authorities adopt a simple improvement that increases the usefulness of their police crime data. The only requirements are that the database is electronic and that it records crime as individual events. The improvement is done by adding a small number or descriptive variables to the already existing variables. The descriptive variables should be about the parties involved in the offence, their relationship, and some concrete circumstances of the crime. This proposal does not require a complex reorganization of the existing information systems of police forces. The reform would only mean that a few new standard variables are introduced. Most of the required information is already known to the police, it is just not coded by using standard codes.This reform would greatly improve the usefulness of the police crime data for purposes of crime analysis. It would also allow much better interpretations of crime trends and of regional crime differences. A further advantage of this reform would be that police-recorded crime and victimization survey data become directly comparable if they contain identical variables that describe the crime events. Our approach is not restricted by criminal codes, since we are not suggesting any changes to the recording principles currently applied. We are only suggesting additional variables. We emphasize that our proposal is much simpler and much more easily introduced than the one being currently recommended by the United Nations (International Classification of Crime 2015).


2017 ◽  
Vol 51 ◽  
pp. 61-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Tragaki ◽  
Konstantinos Lenos

This paper analyzes recent suicide trends in Greece. It relies on two separate databases, vital statistics and police records, the latter never having been explored before. Those datasets present a different picture about the suicide rates and trends, confirming the crucial importance of data reliability and consistency in time trend analysis. Frequencies and ratios were calculated and compared using paired sample t-tests. Overtime trend changes were detected applying segment regression analysis on both data collections. Our findings suggest that there are important differences between vital and police statistics on suicides. At national level, over the period 1990–2013, vital statistics reported an average of 7 percent more suicides, annually. Differences were more pronounced among women and younger ages. Both datasets confirm a change in total suicide trends during recent recession, but police data analysis supports that increases are less impressive than vital statistics claim.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minh Cong Nguyen ◽  
Paul Corral ◽  
Joao Pedro Azevedo ◽  
Qinghua Zhao

Author(s):  
Benmei Liu ◽  
Isaac Dompreh ◽  
Anne M Hartman

Abstract Background The workplace and home are sources of exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS), a serious health hazard for nonsmoking adults and children. Smoke-free workplace policies and home rules protect nonsmoking individuals from SHS and help individuals who smoke to quit smoking. However, estimated population coverages of smoke-free workplace policies and home rules are not typically available at small geographic levels such as counties. Model-based small area estimation techniques are needed to produce such estimates. Methods Self-reported smoke-free workplace policies and home rules data came from the 2014-2015 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey. County-level design-based estimates of the two measures were computed and linked to county-level relevant covariates obtained from external sources. Hierarchical Bayesian models were then built and implemented through Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Results Model-based estimates of smoke-free workplace policies and home rules were produced for 3,134 (out of 3,143) U.S. counties. In 2014-2015, nearly 80% of U.S. adult workers were covered by smoke-free workplace policies, and more than 85% of U.S. adults were covered by smoke-free home rules. We found large variations within and between states in the coverage of smoke-free workplace policies and home rules. Conclusions The small-area modeling approach efficiently reduced the variability that was attributable to small sample size in the direct estimates for counties with data and predicted estimates for counties without data by borrowing strength from covariates and other counties with similar profiles. The county-level modeled estimates can serve as a useful resource for tobacco control research and intervention. Implications Detailed county- and state-level estimates of smoke-free workplace policies and home rules can help identify coverage disparities and differential impact of smoke-free legislation and related social norms. Moreover, this estimation framework can be useful for modeling different tobacco control variables and applied elsewhere, e.g., to other behavioral, policy, or health related topics.


1994 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 90-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ghosh ◽  
J. N. K. Rao

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document