scholarly journals P-O06 A scoring system to support surgical decision-making for cardial submucosal tumors

2021 ◽  
Vol 108 (Supplement_9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zi-Han Geng ◽  
Yan Zhu ◽  
Wei-Feng Chen ◽  
Quan-Lin Li ◽  
Ping-Hong Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Endoscopic Resection ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Muscularis Propria ◽  
Internal Validation ◽  
Training Cohort ◽  
Submucosal Tumors

Abstract Background Submucosal tunneling endoscopic resection (STER) and non-tunneling techniques are two alternative options for the treatment of cardial submucosal tumors (SMTs). We aimed to establish a regression model and develop a simple scoring system to help clinicians make surgical decisions for cardial submucosal tumors. Methods A total of 246 patients who suffered cardial SMTs and received endoscopic resection were included in this study. All of them were randomized into the training cohort (n = 147) or internal validation cohort (n = 99). Then, the scoring system was proposed based on multivariate logistic regression analysis in the training cohort and assessed in the validation cohort. Results Of 246 patients, 97 were treated with STER, and the others with non-tunneling endoscopic resection. In the training stage, four factors were weighted with points based on the β coefficient from the regression model, including irregular morphology (-2 points), ulcer (2 points), the direction of the gastroscope (-2 points for reversing direction and 1 point for entering direction), and originating from the muscularis propria (-2 points). The patients were categorized into low-score (< -4), medium-score (-4 - -3) and high-score (> -3) groups, and those with low scores were more likely to be treated with STER. Our score model performed satisfying discriminatory power in internal validation (Areas under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC), 0.829; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.694-0.964) and goodness-of-fit in the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P = .4721). Conclusions This scoring system could provide clinicians the references for making decisions about the treatment of cardial submucosal tumors.

scholarly journals Development and Validation of a Clinical Score for Predicting the Risk of Tympanosclerosis Before Surgery

2020 ◽  
pp. 014556132095167
Author(s):  
Zhihuai Dong ◽  
Mingguang Zhou ◽  
Gaofei Ye ◽  
Jing Ye ◽  
Mang Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Otitis Media ◽  
Calibration Curve ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Clinical Score ◽  
Type I ◽  
Discriminative Ability ◽  
Training Cohort

Objective: To develop and validate a clinical score to predict the risk of tympanosclerosis before surgery. Methods: A sample of 404 patients who underwent middle ear microsurgery for otitis media was enrolled. These patients were randomly divided into 2 cohorts: the training cohort (n = 243, 60%) and the validation cohort (n = 161, 40%). The preoperative predictors of tympanosclerosis were determined by multivariate logistic regression analysis and implemented using a clinical score tool. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the clinical score were determined by the area under the curve (AUC) and the calibration curve. Results: The multivariate analysis in the training cohort (n = 243, 60%) identified independent factors for tympanosclerosis as the female sex (odds ratio [OR]: 3.83; 95% CI: 1.66-9.37), the frequency-specific air-bone gap at 250 Hz ≥ 45 dB HL (OR: 3.68; 95% CI: 1.68-8.57), aditus ad antrum blockage (OR: 3.29; 95% CI: 1.38-8.43), type I eardrum calcification (OR: 25.37; 95% CI: 8.41-88.91) or type II eardrum calcification (OR: 18.86; 95% CI: 6.89-58.77), and a history of otitis media ≥ 10 years (OR: 4.10; 95% CI: 1.58-11.83), which were all included in the clinical score tool. The AUC of the clinical score for predicting tympanosclerosis was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.85-0.93) in the training cohort and 0.89 (95% CI: 0.84-0.95) in the validation cohort. The calibration curve also showed good agreement between the predicted and observed probability. Conclusions: The clinical score achieved an optimal prediction of tympanosclerosis before surgery. The presence of calcification pearls on the promontorium tympani is a strong predictor of tympanosclerosis with stapes fixation.

scholarly journals A Predictive Model of Live Birth Based on Obesity and Metabolic Parameters in Patients With PCOS Undergoing Frozen-Thawed Embryo Transfer

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaohua Jiang ◽  
Ruijun Liu ◽  
Ting Liao ◽  
Ye He ◽  
Caihua Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Embryo Transfer ◽  
Live Birth ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Advanced Age ◽  
Training Cohort ◽  
Frozen Thawed Embryo Transfer ◽  
Thawed Embryo Transfer

AimsTo determine the clinical predictors of live birth in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) undergoing frozen-thawed embryo transfer (F-ET), and to determine whether these parameters can be used to develop a clinical nomogram model capable of predicting live birth outcomes for these women.MethodsIn total, 1158 PCOS patients that were clinically pregnant following F-ET treatment were retrospectively enrolled in this study and randomly divided into the training cohort (n = 928) and the validation cohort (n = 230) at an 8:2 ratio. Relevant risk factors were selected via a logistic regression analysis approach based on the data from patients in the training cohort, and odds ratios (ORs) were calculated. A nomogram was constructed based on relevant risk factors, and its performance was assessed based on its calibration and discriminative ability.ResultsIn total, 20 variables were analyzed in the present study, of which five were found to be independently associated with the odds of live birth in univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, including advanced age, obesity, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), and insulin resistance (IR). Having advanced age (OR:0.499, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.257 – 967), being obese (OR:0.506, 95% CI: 0.306 - 0.837), having higher TC levels (OR: 0.528, 95% CI: 0.423 - 0.660), having higher TG levels (OR: 0.585, 95% CI: 0.465 - 737), and exhibiting IR (OR:0.611, 95% CI: 0.416 - 0.896) were all independently associated with a reduced chance of achieving a live birth. A predictive nomogram incorporating these five variables was found to be well-calibrated and to exhibit good discriminatory capabilities, with an area under the curve (AUC) for the training group of 0.750 (95% CI, 0.709 - 0.788). In the independent validation cohort, this model also exhibited satisfactory goodness-of-fit and discriminative capabilities, with an AUC of 0.708 (95% CI, 0.615 - 0.781).ConclusionsThe nomogram developed in this study may be of value as a tool for predicting the odds of live birth for PCOS patients undergoing F-ET, and has the potential to improve the efficiency of pre-transfer management.

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