Asset Valuation

2019 ◽  
pp. 111-120
Author(s):  
Alan N. Rechtschaffen
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Asset Valuation ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Yield Curves ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
The Great Recession

This chapter begins with a discussion of the use of interest rates in asset valuation. During the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve has navigated U.S. interest rates lower by first reducing the target for the federal funds rate to zero, and then engaging in a process of quantitative easing by purchasing longer-term securities. The effect of the Federal Reserve's actions has been to lower interest rates that affect valuation models across all assets and investments. The chapter then discusses interest rate yield curve, covering the types of yield curves, why the yield curve may be flat or inverted, the increase in market demand for long-term securities, and long-term yield affected by Federal Reserve monetary policy.

scholarly journals Deleveraging and Monetary Policy: Japan Since the 1990s and the United States Since 2007

2012 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 177-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazuo Ueda
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
The United States ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
The U.S

As the U.S. economy works through a sluggish recovery several years after the Great Recession technically came to an end in June 2009, it can only look with horror toward Japan's experience of two decades of stagnant growth since the early 1990s. In contrast to Japan, U.S. policy authorities responded to the financial crisis since 2007 more quickly. Surely, they learned from Japan's experience. I will begin by describing how Japan's economic situation unfolded in the early 1990s and offering some comparisons with how the Great Recession unfolded in the U.S. economy. I then turn to the Bank of Japan's policy responses to the crisis and again offer some comparisons to the Federal Reserve. I will discuss the use of both the conventional interest rate tool—the federal funds rate in the United States, and the “call rate” in Japan—and nonconventional measures of monetary policy and consider their effectiveness in the context of the rest of the financial system.

scholarly journals Why The Quantity Of Money Still Matters

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Cosgrove ◽  
Daniel Marsh
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Theory Model ◽  
Conventional Wisdom ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">The operating procedure of Federal Reserve policy focuses almost exclusively on interest rates, in particular short term rates such as the federal funds rate. Conventional wisdom today interprets a low federal funds rate as an indicator of an expansionary monetary policy, and a high federal funds rate as indicative of a contractionary policy.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">&nbsp;</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Our thesis is that this conventional wisdom is flawed. We develop a quantity theory model to illustrate how changes in the real money supply can impact both the price level and real output. We present data showing that when the Fed slows the rate of growth of the monetary base to approximately the growth rate of GDP, that this slowdown also impacts real variables. However, according to comments, the Federal Reserve pays little attention to the quantity of money.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">&nbsp;</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Finally we asked: Since the Federal Reserve pays little attention to the quantity of money, what variables does the FOMC likely consider in deciding to alter the federal funds rate? The answer, perhaps not surprisingly, appears to be variables readily measured and easily related to by the general public &ndash; prices and capacity.</span></span></p>

scholarly journals THE ROLE OF MONEY IN FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irfan A. Qureshi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Interest Rate Rule ◽  
Suitable Framework ◽  
Federal Reserve Policy

This paper shows that money is a relevant macroeconomic indicator for the description of US monetary policy with simple rules. Empirical analysis based on novel real-time data reveals the economically and statistically significant effect of money on the federal funds rate during the Volcker–Greenspan era, highlighting an interest rate rule that better explains historical policy. The findings suggest that the bias against including money in mainstream macroeconomic models may be due to relying on an incorrect measure of money. A gradual deviation from this rule explains loose monetary policy prior to the Great Recession. Including money aggregates in rule-based policy presents a suitable framework to evaluate and guide Federal Reserve policy.

scholarly journals Do Forecasters Agree on a Taylor Rule?

2015 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles T. Carlstrom ◽  
Margaret Jacobson
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate

Forecasters’ projections of interest rates vary a great deal. We use a Taylor rule to investigate two possible reasons why. Namely, do differences arise because forecasters have different projections for output growth or inflation, or do they arise because forecasters follow different guidelines to predict what the Federal Reserve will do with the federal funds rate? We find evidence for both explanations. Forecasters appear to use very different projections for inflation and output growth, but they also seem to use dramatically different Taylor rule coefficients.

The stimulus schemes will stress the financial system

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Corporate Debt ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Negative Interest Rates

Significance While the Federal Reserve (Fed) rejects negative interest rates, and instead considers yield-curve control, even the prospect of negative US rates is accentuating distortions in asset prices and fuelling concerns about global financial stability after the pandemic. Impacts The Fed’s decision to start buying corporate debt has led to a surge in bond issuance; many firms may struggle as the stimulus is unwound. Beyond Japan, the euro-area is nearest deflation; the ECB chief economist warns that demand will be low for some time. The VIX Index, a measure of upcoming US equities volatility, remains above its long-term average, but will be prone to spikes.

scholarly journals Outside the Box: Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Great Recession and Beyond

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 121-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth N. Kuttner
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Mortgage Backed Securities ◽  
Policy Statements ◽  
Government Sponsored Enterprises

In November 2008, the Federal Reserve faced a deteriorating economy and a financial crisis. The federal funds rate had already been reduced to virtually zero. Thus, the Federal Reserve turned to unconventional monetary policies. Through “quantitative easing,” the Fed announced plans to buy mortgage-backed securities and debt issued by government-sponsored enterprises. Subsequent purchases would eventually lead to a five-fold expansion in the Fed’s balance sheet, from $900 billion to $4.5 trillion, and leave the Fed holding over 20 percent of all mortgage-backed securities and marketable Treasury debt. In addition, Fed policy statements in December 2008 began to include explicit references to the likely path of the federal funds interest rate, a policy that came to be known as “forward guidance.” The Fed ceased its direct asset purchases in late 2014. Starting in October 2017, it has allowed the balance sheet to shrink gradually as existing assets mature. From December 2015 through June 2018, the Fed has raised the federal funds interest rate seven times. Thus, the time is ripe to step back and ask whether the Fed’s unconventional policies had the intended expansionary effects—and by extension, whether the Fed should use them in the future.

scholarly journals Quantitative Easing and the U.S. Stock Market: A Decision Tree Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-156
Author(s):  
Ramaprasad Bhar ◽  
A.G. Malliaris ◽  
Mary Malliaris
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
The U.S

The Financial Crisis of 2007-09 caused the U.S. economy to experience a relatively long recession from December 2007 to June 2009. Both the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve undertook expansive fiscal and monetary policies to minimize both the severity and length of the recession.  Most notably, the Federal Reserve initiated three rounds of unconventional monetary policies known as Quantitative Easing.  These policies were intended to reduce long-term interest rates when the short term federal funds rates had reached the zero lower bound and could not become negative. It was argued that the lowering of longer-term interest rates would help the stock market and thus the wealth of consumers.  This paper investigates this hypothesis and concludes that quantitative easing has contributed to the observed increases in the stock market’s significant recovery since its crash due to the financial crisis

scholarly journals The impacts of interest rate changes on US Midwest farmland values

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Albulena Basha ◽  
Wendong Zhang ◽  
Chad Hart
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
State Level ◽  
Land Values ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Farmland Values

PurposeThis paper quantifies the effects of recent Federal Reserve interest rate changes, specifically recent hikes and cuts in the federal funds rate since 2015, on Midwest farmland values.Design/methodology/approachThe authors apply three autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models to a panel data of state-level farmland values from 1963 to 2018 to estimate the dynamic effects of interest rate changes on the US farmland market. We focus on the I-states, Lakes states and Great Plains states. The models in the study capture both short-term and long-term impacts of policy changes on land values.FindingsThe authors find that changes in the federal funds rate have long-lasting impacts on farmland values, as it takes at least a decade for the full effects of an interest rate change to be capitalized in farmland values. The results show that the three recent federal funds rate cuts in 2019 were not sufficient to offset the downward pressures from the 2015–2018 interest rate hikes, but the 2020 cut is. The combined effect of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate moves on farmland values will be positive for some time starting in 2022.Originality/valueThis paper provides the first empirical quantification of the immediate and long-run impacts of recent Federal Reserve interest rate moves on farmland values. The authors demonstrate the long-lasting repercussions of Federal Reserve's policy choices in the farmland market.

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