Governing by Rules and Ruling by Numbers in the Eurozone Crisis

Author(s):  
Vivien A. Schmidt

Chapter 4 provides an overview of the Eurozone crisis, to serve as a background for the subsequent four chapters which discuss in turn each of the four EU actors’ particular pathways to legitimacy, including their sources of power and grounds for throughput legitimacy, along with the Janus-faced public perceptions of their Eurozone governance. The chapter begins with a brief review of the history of European Monetary Union (EMU), describing the trials and tribulations in the run-up to the Maastricht Treaty and member states’ very different ideas and discourse related to monetary integration, as illustrated by the differences in German, French, and Italian views. It then considers what happened at the time of the introduction of the single currency. The chapter follows with the initial responses to the Eurozone crisis during its fast-burning phase, characterized by a doubling down on the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact. It elaborates on the trials and tribulations at the inception of the crisis, on EU actors’ initial actions and reactions, and on institutional innovations such as banking union. It also provides further details on legislation and treaty agreements, as well as on the ideas underpinning the policy responses. The chapter ends by considering the benefits and drawbacks of EU actors’ subsequent reinterpretation of the rules by stealth during the Eurozone crisis’ slow-burning phase, arguing that although rules reinterpretation may have improved policy responses (output), not admitting this raised questions of accountability and transparency (throughput), while failing to address problems of political legitimacy (input).

2006 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Renate Ohr ◽  
André Schmidt

AbstractThe Stability and Growth Pact is one of the constituent pillars of the European Monetary Union. Though, meanwhile it is obvious that it will not be able to limit fiscal deficits of the member states. For this reason in this paper Coase′s thinking in institutional alternatives is applied to find a better way to increase the incentives for more fiscal stability. We present and discuss tradable deficit permits comprising market-orientated incentives for fiscal stability. It is shown that tradable deficit permits are superior from a politico-economical view as well as with regard to allocative efficiency.


2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 540-554 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramona Coman

This article examines the debates surrounding the Regulation 1303/2013 on structural funds, arguing that the rules adopted in the midst of the eurozone crisis to strengthen the governance of the euro area had spill-over effects on cohesion policy. It shows how, in the fast-burning phase of the crisis (2010–2013), some actors pushed forward the idea of suspending structural funds in case of non-compliance with the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact, making funding conditional on Member States’ compliance with the rules of the new economic governance, and how, after the entry into force of this Regulation, in the slow-burning phase of the crisis (from 2013 onwards), a greater number of actors has been calling for a more flexible interpretation of the rules. To explain the disruption between t1 and t2, the article examines the change in the power relations between and within institutions and the change in ideas.


Author(s):  
Charlotte Rommerskirchen

Solutions to free riding, whether stability or growth free riding, are thought to be found in the provision of incentives. Yet the empirical findings of this chapter suggest that domestic fiscal rules, such as debt brakes, did not impact on the fiscal policy responses to the Great Recession. Similarly, EU-level agreements (the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and the newly created European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP)) did not impact on fiscal policy choices. First, the majority of domestic fiscal rules were equipped with exceptionality clauses. As a result, they did not impose stern constraints on fiscal policy in hard times. Second, the EERP and SGP were meaningless for fiscal policy outcomes; member states adopted stimulus programs as they saw fit with little concern for EU-level agreements or EU-wide aims for stability and growth.


Author(s):  
Jens Körner

The emergence of the so-called PIIGS crisis which in 2009 became acute due to strongly diverging risk premiums, marked the beginning of a new phase for the European Monetary Union. Whilst the run-up to EMU had been characterized by an encouraging convergence of macroeconomic fundamentals of its member countries, it is now facing a serious threat in particular due to excessive levels of public debt. In 1997, the Stability and Growth Pact introduced a mechanism designed to prevent excessive public debt of the type currently observed; the fact of the matter, however, seems to be that levels of public debt has continuously grown from one economic cycle to the next. But the SGP apparently not only failed to fulfil its aim to keep the deficit and the debt level within its limits but also suffered from a severe loss of credibility; unless some profound action is taken it may further diminish, severely hampering the loose structure of the European Monetary Union. In order to regain some credibility, mitigate financial market’s concerns and, hence, lower borrowing cost, a consolidation path is needed to returns to acceptable levels of debt in the foreseeable future. This process has already started and measures have been taken by several eurozone countries to speed up fiscal consolidation. The aim of the paper is to analyze whether or not the group of the PIIGS countries are likely to return to debt levels in accordance with the SGP criteria or if it might be necessary to undergo a process of debt restructuring or default. By analysing different scenarios where nominal interest rates on debt (r) and nominal growth rates (n) as well as gaps thereof (r-n), herein called the automatic debt dynamics, are varied, this paper comes to the conclusion, that debt restructuring or default is a likely outcome for some of the PIIGS; arithmetics is in particular playing against Greece. As disillusioning and disappointing this outcome might be for some observers, it could be the starting point for a more credible set of rules for the SGP, which the author deems to remain a crucial component in any institutional set-up within the eurozone.


2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Afflatet

It has become common to criticize Germany and France for having broken the Stability and Growth Pact in 2003, supposedly giving way for higher deficits thereafter. However, this question has not yet been answered by the economic literature. It is closely related to the issue whether the Stability and Growth Pact had any disciplining effect on European Monetary Union member countries or not. This article examines the question whether joining the European Monetary Union or the breach of the Stability and Growth Pact in 2003 had an impact on deficits of member states. The empirical analysis shows no evidence for higher deficits after having joined the Eurozone or after having breached the Pact in 2003. These results are robust to different testing methods and when using different data samples. They can be explained with the fact that the Pact was undermined from its beginning and only had a limited disciplining effect henceforth. Otherwise the breakout of the ongoing debt crisis would hardly have been possible.


2005 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 355-383
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Nyahoho

The precised calendar of Maastricht treaty for setting up the european System of central banks (ESCB) and the european central bank (ECB) with a single currency can merely be explained by the concern of the member countries of having such a monetary integration before the end of the century. There's every chance that ESCB be formed with limited number of countries, namely: France, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands. If the objectives of price controls and non monetisation of debt assigned to ESCB are unequivocal, the responsability of fixing the parity of écu vis-à-vis third currencies which belongs to the Council and the Parliament might deprive the ESCB of full scope in conducting monetary policy. In regard to fiscal policies, the coexistence of budgets of various natures and the conjonctural stabilizations programs in prospect render difficult any computation on future coordination policy or federal budget. Finally, ecu once in place as a single currency could extend beyond the communities, but its acceptance on financial and commercial markets beside the dollar and the yen is scarcely predictable. This tendancy toward currencies zone, thus repeating history of the years thirties, does not constitute any guaranty for the stability of international monetary System which would require a kind of multilateral surveillance.


Author(s):  
Ihor Soroka

The question of whether or not to adopt the euro is a very important one, not only for the 13 European Union members that do not share the same currency, but also for future EU candidates. Current literature on the effect of the euro on trade is scarce since the European Monetary Union (EMU) was officially created in 1999, and up until recently there has not been enough data to analyze this issue. This paper aims to estimate the effect of the euro on trade between member countries using the standard gravity model of trade. Using data from current 25 EU members over the period from 1997 to 2004, I show that higher trade volumes between EMU members cannot be attributed to the adoption of the euro. I find evidence that the euro adoption has had a short-run effect on bilateral trade and that this effect is eliminated over a short period of time. My findings suggest that members of the EMU trade on average from 8.8% to 47% more compared to non-members depending on the type of regression used, while members of the Free Trade Agreement trade 61.3% more. The effect of the euro on trade is eliminated as soon as I control for country-pair specific effects that include the FTA effect as well as history of trade relations between two countries. I conclude that the adoption of the euro should be seen as a final step in the European economic and monetary integration for countries that already benefit from relatively high volumes of bilateral trade. Full text availale at: https://doi.org/10.22215/rera.v2i1.166


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document