Pertussis immunity and the epidemiological impact of adult transmission

Pertussis ◽  
2018 ◽  
pp. 225-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron A. King ◽  
Matthieu Domenech de Cellès ◽  
Felicia M.G. Magpantay ◽  
Pejman Rohani
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Individual Variability ◽  
Vaccine Effectiveness ◽  
Host Immunity ◽  
Vaccine Failure ◽  
Whole Cell ◽  
Primary Mechanism ◽  
Epidemiological Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pertussis Epidemiology

An understanding of the consequences of infection and vaccination on host immunity sets the stage for interpreting pertussis epidemiology. Yet, with no known serological marker of protection, such an understanding is currently not possible. This chapter interrogates longitudinal age-stratified pertussis incidence reports from Sweden and Massachusetts, United States, with the aim of quantifying the impact of infection and immunization on protective immunity. The analysis of data from Sweden during the vaccination hiatus period (1986–1996) indicates that adults contribute little to transmission. This may either be because infection-derived immunity is very long-lasting, or that individuals whose immunity has waned are subsequently less susceptible. The analysis of data from Massachusetts (1990–2005) identifies the primary mechanism of vaccine failure—for both whole-cell and acellular pertussis vaccines—to be waning. However, the average duration of immunity is identified as many decades, though the model predicts substantial individual variability in this trait. Finally, the chapter demonstrates the estimates to be consistent with those obtained from popular measures of vaccine effectiveness, though the interpretation of these findings is quite different.

scholarly journals COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy model: The impact of vaccine education on controlling the outbreak in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bismark Oduro ◽  
Attou Miloua ◽  
Ofosuhene O. Apenteng ◽  
Prince P. Osei
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Vaccine Effectiveness ◽  
Significant Challenge ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vaccination Hesitancy ◽  
Mixed Reaction

The coronavirus outbreak continues to pose a significant challenge to human lives globally. Many efforts have been made to develop vaccines to combat this virus. However, with the arrival of the COVID-19 vaccine, there is hesitancy and a mixed reaction toward getting the vaccine. We develop a mathematical model to analyze and investigate the impacts of education on individuals hesitant to get vaccinated. The findings indicate that vaccine education can substantially minimize the daily cumulative cases and deaths of COVID-19 in the United States. The results also show that vaccine education significantly increases the number of willing susceptible individuals, and with a high vaccination rate and vaccine effectiveness, the outbreak can be controlled in the US.

scholarly journals Projecting the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants on the COVID-19 epidemic and social restoration in the United States: a mathematical modelling study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Li ◽  
Yan Li ◽  
Zhuoru Zou ◽  
Yiming Liu ◽  
Xinghui Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccine Effectiveness ◽  
Potential Reduction ◽  
The Us ◽  
Alpha Variant ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant B.1.1.7 became prevalent in the United States (US). We aimed to evaluate the impact of vaccination scale-up and potential reduction in the vaccination effectiveness on the COVID-19 epidemic and social restoration in the US. Methods: We extended a published compartmental model and calibrated the model to the latest US COVID-19 data. We estimated the vaccine effectiveness against B.1.1.7 and evaluated the impact of a potential reduction in vaccine effectiveness on future epidemics. We projected the epidemic trends under different levels of social restoration. Results: We estimated the overall existing vaccine effectiveness against B.1.1.7 to be 88.5% (95%CI: 87.4-89.5%) and vaccination coverage would reach 70% by the end of August, 2021. With this vaccine effectiveness and coverage, we anticipated 498,972 (109,998-885,947) cumulative infections and 15,443 (3,828-27,057) deaths nationwide over the next 12 months, of which 95.0% infections and 93.3% deaths were caused by B.1.1.7. Complete social restoration at 70% vaccination coverage would only slightly increase cumulative infections and deaths to 511,159 (110,578-911,740) and 15,739 (3,841-27,638), respectively. However, if the vaccine effectiveness were reduced to 75%, 50% or 25% due to new SARS-CoV-2 variants, we predicted 667,075 (130,682-1,203,468), 1.7m (0.2-3.2m), 19.0m (5.3-32.7m) new infections and 19,249 (4,281-34,217), 42,265 (5,081-79,448), 426,860 (117,229-736,490) cumulative deaths to occur over the next 12 months. Further, social restoration at a lower vaccination coverage would lead to even greater future outbreaks. Conclusion: Current COVID-19 vaccines remain effective against the B.1.1.7 variant, and 70% vaccination coverage would be sufficient to restore social activities to a pre-pandemic level. Further reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants would result in a potential surge of the epidemic in the future.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: A Mathematical Modelling Study

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Li ◽  
Yan Li ◽  
Zhuoru Zou ◽  
Yiming Liu ◽  
Xinghui Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccine Effectiveness ◽  
Potential Reduction ◽  
The Us ◽  
Vaccine Booster ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels

Background: Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants are still rampant across the United States (US). We aimed to evaluate the impact of vaccination scale-up and potential reduction in the vaccination effectiveness on the COVID-19 epidemic and social restoration in the US.Methods: We extended a published compartmental model and calibrated the model to the latest US COVID-19 data. We estimated the vaccine effectiveness against the variant and evaluated the impact of a potential reduction in vaccine effectiveness on the epidemics. We explored the epidemic trends under different levels of social restoration.Results: We estimated the overall existing vaccine effectiveness against the variant as 88.5% (95% CI: 87.4–89.5%) with the vaccination coverage of 70% by the end of August, 2021. With this vaccine effectiveness and coverage, there would be 498,972 (109,998–885,947) cumulative infections and 15,443 (3,828–27,057) deaths nationwide over the next 12 months, of which 95.0% infections and 93.3% deaths were caused by the variant. Complete social restoration at 60, 65, 70% vaccination coverage would increase cumulative infections to 1.6 (0.2–2.9) million 0.7 (0.1–1.2) million, and 511,159 (110,578–911,740), respectively. At same time it would increase cumulative deaths to 39,040 (5,509–72,570), 19,562 (3,873–35,250), 15,739 (3,841–27,638), respectively. However, if the vaccine effectiveness were reduced to 75%, 50% or 25% due to new SARS-CoV-2 variants, there would be 667,075 (130,682–1,203,468), 1.7 (0.2–3.2) million, 19.0 (5.3–32.7) million new infections and 19,249 (4,281–34,217), 42,265 (5,081–79,448), 426,860 (117,229–736,490) cumulative deaths to occur over the next 12 months. Further, social restoration at a lower vaccination coverage would lead to even greater secondary outbreaks.Conclusion: Current COVID-19 vaccines remain effective against the SARS-CoV-2 variant, and 70% vaccination coverage would be sufficient to restore social activities to a pre-pandemic level. Further reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants would result in a potential surge of the epidemic. Multiple measures, including public health interventions, vaccination scale-up and development of a new vaccine booster, should be integrated to counter the new challenges of new SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Wrestling with 9/11: Immigrant Perceptions and Perceptions of Immigrants

2006 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 107-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline Brettell
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Immigration Policy ◽  
Asian Indians ◽  
World Trade Center ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fort Worth ◽  
Foreign Born ◽  
Immigrant Populations ◽  
Trade Center ◽  
The Impact

Soon after 9/11 a research project to study new immigration into the Dallas Fort Worth metropolitan area got under way. In the questionnaire that was administered to 600 immigrants across five different immigrant populations (Asian Indians, Vietnamese, Mexicans, Salvadorans, and Nigerians) between 2003 and 2005 we decided to include a question about the impact of 9/11 on their lives. We asked: “How has the attack on the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001 affected your position as an immigrant in the United States?” This article analyzes the responses to this question, looking at similarities and differences across different immigrant populations. It also addresses the broader issue of how 9/11 has affected both immigration policy and attitudes toward the foreign-born in the United States. 

Anne O. Krueger, Constantine Michalopoulos and Vernon W. Ruttan. Aid and Development. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press. 1989. xiv + 386 pp.Price: U.S. $ 52.00

1991 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-217
Author(s):  
Mir Annice Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
International Development ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Development Assistance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Infrastructure ◽  
Low Literacy ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Impact

Foreign aid has been the subject of much examination and research ever since it entered the economic armamentarium approximately 45 years ago. This was the time when the Second World War had successfully ended for the Allies in the defeat of Germany and Japan. However, a new enemy, the Soviet Union, had materialized at the end of the conflict. To counter the threat from the East, the United States undertook the implementation of the Marshal Plan, which was extremely successful in rebuilding and revitalizing a shattered Western Europe. Aid had made its impact. The book under review is by three well-known economists and is the outcome of a study sponsored by the Department of State and the United States Agency for International Development. The major objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of assistance, i.e., aid, on economic development. This evaluation however, was to be based on the existing literature on the subject. The book has five major parts: Part One deals with development thought and development assistance; Part Two looks at the relationship between donors and recipients; Part Three evaluates the use of aid by sector; Part Four presents country case-studies; and Part Five synthesizes the lessons from development assistance. Part One of the book is very informative in that it summarises very concisely the theoretical underpinnings of the aid process. In the beginning, aid was thought to be the answer to underdevelopment which could be achieved by a transfer of capital from the rich to the poor. This approach, however, did not succeed as it was simplistic. Capital transfers were not sufficient in themselves to bring about development, as research in this area came to reveal. The development process is a complicated one, with inputs from all sectors of the economy. Thus, it came to be recognized that factors such as low literacy rates, poor health facilities, and lack of social infrastructure are also responsible for economic backwardness. Part One of the book, therefore, sums up appropriately the various trends in development thought. This is important because the book deals primarily with the issue of the effectiveness of aid as a catalyst to further economic development.

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