scholarly journals Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: A Mathematical Modelling Study

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Li ◽  
Yan Li ◽  
Zhuoru Zou ◽  
Yiming Liu ◽  
Xinghui Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccine Effectiveness ◽  
Potential Reduction ◽  
The Us ◽  
Vaccine Booster ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels

Background: Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants are still rampant across the United States (US). We aimed to evaluate the impact of vaccination scale-up and potential reduction in the vaccination effectiveness on the COVID-19 epidemic and social restoration in the US.Methods: We extended a published compartmental model and calibrated the model to the latest US COVID-19 data. We estimated the vaccine effectiveness against the variant and evaluated the impact of a potential reduction in vaccine effectiveness on the epidemics. We explored the epidemic trends under different levels of social restoration.Results: We estimated the overall existing vaccine effectiveness against the variant as 88.5% (95% CI: 87.4–89.5%) with the vaccination coverage of 70% by the end of August, 2021. With this vaccine effectiveness and coverage, there would be 498,972 (109,998–885,947) cumulative infections and 15,443 (3,828–27,057) deaths nationwide over the next 12 months, of which 95.0% infections and 93.3% deaths were caused by the variant. Complete social restoration at 60, 65, 70% vaccination coverage would increase cumulative infections to 1.6 (0.2–2.9) million 0.7 (0.1–1.2) million, and 511,159 (110,578–911,740), respectively. At same time it would increase cumulative deaths to 39,040 (5,509–72,570), 19,562 (3,873–35,250), 15,739 (3,841–27,638), respectively. However, if the vaccine effectiveness were reduced to 75%, 50% or 25% due to new SARS-CoV-2 variants, there would be 667,075 (130,682–1,203,468), 1.7 (0.2–3.2) million, 19.0 (5.3–32.7) million new infections and 19,249 (4,281–34,217), 42,265 (5,081–79,448), 426,860 (117,229–736,490) cumulative deaths to occur over the next 12 months. Further, social restoration at a lower vaccination coverage would lead to even greater secondary outbreaks.Conclusion: Current COVID-19 vaccines remain effective against the SARS-CoV-2 variant, and 70% vaccination coverage would be sufficient to restore social activities to a pre-pandemic level. Further reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants would result in a potential surge of the epidemic. Multiple measures, including public health interventions, vaccination scale-up and development of a new vaccine booster, should be integrated to counter the new challenges of new SARS-CoV-2 variants.

scholarly journals Projecting the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants on the COVID-19 epidemic and social restoration in the United States: a mathematical modelling study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Li ◽  
Yan Li ◽  
Zhuoru Zou ◽  
Yiming Liu ◽  
Xinghui Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccine Effectiveness ◽  
Potential Reduction ◽  
The Us ◽  
Alpha Variant ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant B.1.1.7 became prevalent in the United States (US). We aimed to evaluate the impact of vaccination scale-up and potential reduction in the vaccination effectiveness on the COVID-19 epidemic and social restoration in the US. Methods: We extended a published compartmental model and calibrated the model to the latest US COVID-19 data. We estimated the vaccine effectiveness against B.1.1.7 and evaluated the impact of a potential reduction in vaccine effectiveness on future epidemics. We projected the epidemic trends under different levels of social restoration. Results: We estimated the overall existing vaccine effectiveness against B.1.1.7 to be 88.5% (95%CI: 87.4-89.5%) and vaccination coverage would reach 70% by the end of August, 2021. With this vaccine effectiveness and coverage, we anticipated 498,972 (109,998-885,947) cumulative infections and 15,443 (3,828-27,057) deaths nationwide over the next 12 months, of which 95.0% infections and 93.3% deaths were caused by B.1.1.7. Complete social restoration at 70% vaccination coverage would only slightly increase cumulative infections and deaths to 511,159 (110,578-911,740) and 15,739 (3,841-27,638), respectively. However, if the vaccine effectiveness were reduced to 75%, 50% or 25% due to new SARS-CoV-2 variants, we predicted 667,075 (130,682-1,203,468), 1.7m (0.2-3.2m), 19.0m (5.3-32.7m) new infections and 19,249 (4,281-34,217), 42,265 (5,081-79,448), 426,860 (117,229-736,490) cumulative deaths to occur over the next 12 months. Further, social restoration at a lower vaccination coverage would lead to even greater future outbreaks. Conclusion: Current COVID-19 vaccines remain effective against the B.1.1.7 variant, and 70% vaccination coverage would be sufficient to restore social activities to a pre-pandemic level. Further reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants would result in a potential surge of the epidemic in the future.

scholarly journals COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy model: The impact of vaccine education on controlling the outbreak in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bismark Oduro ◽  
Attou Miloua ◽  
Ofosuhene O. Apenteng ◽  
Prince P. Osei
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Vaccine Effectiveness ◽  
Significant Challenge ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vaccination Hesitancy ◽  
Mixed Reaction

The coronavirus outbreak continues to pose a significant challenge to human lives globally. Many efforts have been made to develop vaccines to combat this virus. However, with the arrival of the COVID-19 vaccine, there is hesitancy and a mixed reaction toward getting the vaccine. We develop a mathematical model to analyze and investigate the impacts of education on individuals hesitant to get vaccinated. The findings indicate that vaccine education can substantially minimize the daily cumulative cases and deaths of COVID-19 in the United States. The results also show that vaccine education significantly increases the number of willing susceptible individuals, and with a high vaccination rate and vaccine effectiveness, the outbreak can be controlled in the US.

scholarly journals Epidemiological Differences in the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in the United States and China

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monia Makhoul ◽  
Hiam Chemaitelly ◽  
Houssein H. Ayoub ◽  
Shaheen Seedat ◽  
Laith J. Abu-Raddad
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Us ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
Vaccine Impact ◽  
Infection Disease ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Actual Vaccine

This study forecasts Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination impact in two countries at different epidemic phases, the United States (US) and China. We assessed the impact of both a vaccine that prevents infection (VES of 95%) and a vaccine that prevents only disease (VEP of 95%) through mathematical modeling. For VES of 95% and gradual easing of restrictions, vaccination in the US reduced the peak incidence of infection, disease, and death by >55% and cumulative incidence by >32% and in China by >77% and >65%, respectively. Nearly three vaccinations were needed to avert one infection in the US, but only one was needed in China. For VEP of 95%, vaccination benefits were half those for VES of 95%. In both countries, impact of vaccination was substantially enhanced with rapid scale-up, vaccine coverage >50%, and slower or no easing of restrictions, particularly in the US. COVID-19 vaccination can flatten, delay, and/or prevent future epidemic waves. However, vaccine impact is destined to be heterogeneous across countries because of an underlying “epidemiologic inequity” that reduces benefits for countries already at high incidence, such as the US. Despite 95% efficacy, actual vaccine impact could be meager in such countries if vaccine scale-up is slow, acceptance is poor, or restrictions are eased prematurely.

scholarly journals Epidemiological differences in the impact of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States and China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monia Makhoul ◽  
Hiam Chemaitelly ◽  
Houssein H. Ayoub ◽  
Shaheen Seedat ◽  
Laith J Abu-Raddad
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Us ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
Vaccine Impact ◽  
Infection Disease ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Actual Vaccine

Background: The objective of this study was to forecast the impact of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States (US) and China, two countries at different epidemic phases. Methods: A mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression was used to investigate vaccine impact. Impact was assessed both for a vaccine that prevents infection (VEs = 95%) and a vaccine that prevents only disease (VEp = 95%). Results: For VEs = 95% and gradual easing of restrictions, vaccination in the US reduced the peak incidence of infection, disease, and death by >55% and cumulative incidence by >32%, and in China by >77% and >65%, respectively. Nearly three vaccinations were needed to avert one infection in the US, but only one was needed in China. For VEp = 95%, benefits of vaccination were half those for VEs = 95%. In both countries, the impact of vaccination was substantially enhanced with rapid scale-up, vaccine coverage >50%, and slower or no easing of restrictions, particularly in the US. Conclusions: COVID-19 vaccination can flatten, delay, and/or prevent future epidemic waves. However, vaccine impact is destined to be heterogeneous across countries because of an underlying epidemiologic inequity that reduces benefits for countries already at high incidence, such as the US. Despite 95% efficacy, actual vaccine impact could be meager in such countries, if vaccine scale-up is slow, acceptance of the vaccine is poor, or restrictions are eased prematurely.

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Stock Market in the United States (U.S); Evidence from Linear ARDL Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-132
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States

From Start-Up to Scale-Up

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilles Duruflé ◽  
Thomas Hellmann ◽  
Karen Wilson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Public Policies ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
The United States ◽  
Smart Money ◽  
Start Up ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Creation

This chapter examines the challenge for entrepreneurial companies of going beyond the start-up phase and growing into large successful companies. We examine the long-term financing of these so-called scale-up companies, focusing on the United States, Europe, and Canada. The chapter first provides a conceptual framework for understanding the challenges of financing scale-ups. It emphasizes the need for investors with deep pockets, for smart money, for investor networks, and for patient money. It then shows some data about the various aspects of financing scale-ups in the United States, Europe, and Canada, showing how Europe and Canada are lagging behind the US relatively more at the scale-up than the start-up stage. Finally, the chapter raises the question of long-term public policies for supporting the creation of a better scale-up environment.

scholarly journals The Convergence of Military Conduct and Policing in Israeli-Controlled Territories

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Nir Gazit ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Police Officer ◽  
The United States ◽  
Police Brutality ◽  
Media Attention ◽  
Military Forces ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Impact

The murder of George Floyd by a police officer in the United States in May 2020 and the subsequent turmoil, as well as the violence against migrants on the US-Mexican border, have drawn major public and media attention to the phenomenon of police brutality (see, e.g., Levin 2020; Misra 2018; Taub 2020), which is often labeled as ‘militarization of police’. At the same time, in recent years military forces have been increasingly involved in policing missions in civilian environments, both domestically (see, e.g., Kanno-Youngs 2020; Schrader 2020; Shinkman 2020) and abroad. The convergence of military conduct and policing raises intriguing questions regarding the impact of these tendencies on the military and the police, as well as on their legitimacy.

scholarly journals Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaun Truelove ◽  
Claire P. Smith ◽  
Michelle Qin ◽  
Luke C. Mullany ◽  
Rebecca K. Borchering ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Public Health Practice ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Vaccination Uptake ◽  
The Us ◽  
Novel Variant ◽  
Report Data

What is already known about this topic? The highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has begun to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. With slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant is expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in July-December 2021. What is added by this report? Data from nine mechanistic models project substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant. These resurgences, which have now been observed in most states, were projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. Reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduces the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially. The expected impact of the outbreak is largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. What are the implications for public health practice? Renewed efforts to increase vaccination uptake are critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower current vaccination coverage. Reaching higher vaccination goals in the coming months can potentially avert 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths and improve the ability to safely resume social contacts, and educational and business activities. Continued or renewed non-pharmaceutical interventions, including masking, can also help limit transmission, particularly as schools and businesses reopen.

scholarly journals Quebec’s Economic and Commercial Linkages with the United States, 1994–2017

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Earl H. Fry
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
The North ◽  
Nation States ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Big Picture ◽  
The Impact

This article examines the ebb and flow of the Quebec government’s economic and commercial relations with the United States in the period 1994–2017. The topic demonstrates the impact of three major forces on Quebec’s economic and commercial ties with the US: (1) the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which became operational in 1994 and was fully implemented over a 15-year period; (2) the onerous security policies put in place by the US government in the decade following the horrific events of 11 September 2001; and (3) changing economic circumstances in the United States ranging from robust growth to the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The article also indicates that the Quebec government continues to sponsor a wide range of activities in the United States, often more elaborate and extensive than comparable activities pursued by many nation-states with representation in the US. 1 1 Stéphane Paquin, ‘Quebec-U.S. Relations: The Big Picture’, American Review of Canadian Studies 46, no. 2 (2016): 149–61.

scholarly journals Warlords, the United States, and the state of anarchy in Afghanistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Shah Azami
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
State Building ◽  
The State ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Illegal Mining ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

As part of its “War on Terror”, the United States (US) provided immense sums of money and advanced equipment to Afghan warlords in order to defeat and dismantle the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Nearly two decades after the 2001 US-led intervention in Afghanistan that toppled the Taliban regime, the US continues supporting the warlords in various ways. As the intervention was also aimed at establishing a functioning state and reconstruction of the war-torn country, the US needed the support of local warlords to achieve its goals. However, over time, warlords and warlordism became a major challenge to the postTaliban state-building project and in many ways undermined the overall security and the state monopoly on violence. These warlords, who had been mostly expelled and defeated by the Taliban regime, returned under the aegis of the B52 bombers, recaptured parts of the country and reestablished their fiefdoms with US support and resources. They not only resist giving up the power and prestige they have accumulated over the past few years, but also hamper the effort to improve governance and enact necessary reforms in the country. In addition, many of them run their private militias and have been accused of serious human rights abuses as well as drug trafficking, arms smuggling, illegal mining and extortion in the areas under their control or influence. In many ways, they challenge the government authority and have become a major hurdle to the country’s emerging from lawlessness and anarchy. This paper explores the emergence and reemergence of warlords in Afghanistan as well as the evolution of chaos and anarchy in the country, especially after the US-led intervention of late 2001. It also analyzes the impact of the post-9/11 US support to Afghan warlords and its negative consequences for the overall stability and the US-led state-building process in Afghanistan.

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