Comparative efficacy of two pyrethroid-piperonyl butoxide nets (Olyset Plus and PermaNet 3.0) against pyrethroid resistant malaria vectors: a non-inferiority assessment

Background Pyrethroid-PBO nets were conditionally recommended for control of malaria transmitted by mosquitoes with oxidase-based pyrethroid-resistance based on epidemiological evidence of additional protective effect with Olyset Plus compared to a pyrethroid-only net (Olyset Net). Entomological studies can be used to assess the comparative performance of other brands of pyrethroid-PBO ITNs to Olyset Plus. Methods An experimental hut trial was performed in Cové, Benin to compare PermaNet 3.0 (deltamethrin plus PBO on roof panel only) to Olyset Plus (permethrin plus PBO on all panels) against wild pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) following World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Both nets were tested unwashed and after 20 standardized washes compared to Olyset Net. Laboratory bioassays were also performed to help explain findings in the experimental huts. Results With unwashed nets, mosquito mortality was higher in huts with PermaNet 3.0 compared to Olyset Plus (41% vs. 28%, P < 0.001). After 20 washes, mortality declined significantly with PermaNet 3.0 (41% unwashed vs. 17% after washing P < 0.001), but not with Olyset Plus (28% unwashed vs. 24% after washing P = 0.433); Olyset Plus induced significantly higher mortality than PermaNet 3.0 and Olyset Net after 20 washes. PermaNet 3.0 showed a higher wash retention of PBO compared to Olyset Plus. A non-inferiority analysis performed with data from unwashed and washed nets together using a margin recommended by the WHO, showed that PermaNet 3.0 was non-inferior to Olyset Plus in terms of mosquito mortality (25% with Olyset Plus vs. 27% with PermaNet 3.0, OR = 1.528, 95%CI = 1.02–2.29) but not in reducing mosquito feeding (25% with Olyset Plus vs. 30% with PermaNet 3.0, OR = 1.192, 95%CI = 0.77–1.84). Both pyrethroid-PBO nets were superior to Olyset Net. Conclusion Olyset Plus outperformed PermaNet 3.0 in terms of its ability to cause greater margins of improved mosquito mortality compared to a standard pyrethroid net, after multiple standardized washes. However, using a margin of non-inferiority defined by the WHO, PermaNet 3.0 was non-inferior to Olyset Plus in inducing mosquito mortality. Considering the low levels of mortality observed and increasing pyrethroid-resistance in West Africa, it is unclear whether either of these nets would demonstrate the same epidemiological impact observed in community trials in East Africa.

The epidemiological impact of the Canadian COVID Alert App

We analyzed the effectiveness of the Canadian COVID Alert app on reducing COVID-19 infections and deaths due to the COVID-19 virus using two separate, but complementary approaches, were taken. First, we undertook a comparative study to assess how the adoption and usage of the COVID Alert app compared to those of similar apps deployed in other regions. Next, we used data from the COVID Alert server and a range of plausible parameter values to estimate the numbers of infections and deaths averted in Canada using a model that combines information on number of notifications, secondary attack rate, expected fraction of transmissions that could be prevented, quarantine effectiveness, and expected size of the full transmission chain in the absence of exposure notification. The comparative analysis revealed that the COVID Alert app had among the lowest adoption levels among apps that reported usage. Our model indicates that use of the COVID Alert app averted between 6,284 and 10,894 infections across the six Canadian provinces where app usage was highest during the March - July 2021 period. This range is equivalent to 1.6%-2.9% of the total recorded infections across Canada in that time. Using province-specific case fatality rates, 57-101 deaths were averted during the same period. The number of cases and deaths averted was greatest in Ontario, whereas the proportion of cases and death averted was greatest in Newfoundland and Labrador. App impact measures were reported so rarely and so inconsistently by other countries that the relative assessment of impact is inconclusive. While the nationwide rates are low, provinces with widespread adoption of the app showed high ratios of averted cases and deaths (upper bound was greater than 60% of averted cases). Our findings suggest that the COVID Alert app, when adopted at sufficient levels, can be an effective public health tool for combatting a pandemic such as COVID-19.

Toward the Knowledge of the Epidemiological Impact of Acute Rheumatic Fever in Italy

Background: To estimate the incidence of Acute Rheumatic Fever (ARF) in Tuscany, a region of Central Italy, evaluating the epidemiological impact of the new diagnostic guidelines, and to analyse our outcomes in the context of the Italian overview.Methods: A multicenter and retrospective study was conducted involving children &lt;18 years old living in Tuscany and diagnosed in the period between 2010 and 2019. Two groups were established based on the new diagnostic criteria: High-Risk (HR) group patients, n = 29 and Low-Risk group patients, n = 96.Results: ARF annual incidence ranged from 0.91 to 7.33 out of 100,000 children in the analyzed period, with peak of incidence registered in 2019. The application of HR criteria led to an increase of ARF diagnosis of 30%. Among the overall cohort joint involvement was the most represented criteria (68%), followed by carditis (58%). High prevalence of subclinical carditis was observed (59%).Conclusions: Tuscany should be considered an HR geographic area and HR criteria should be used for ARF diagnosis in this region.

Low neutralizing antibody titers against the Mu variant of SARS-CoV-2 in BNT162b2 vaccinated individuals

Background Global surveillance programs for the virus that causes COVID-19 are showing the emergence of variants with mutations in the Spike protein, including the Mu variant, recently declared as a Variant of Interest (VOI) by the World Health Organization. Because these types of variants can be more infectious or less susceptible to antiviral treatments and vaccine-induced antibodies. Objectives To evaluate the sensitivity of the Mu variant (B.1.621) to neutralizing antibodies induced by the BNT162b2 vaccine. Study design Three of the most predominant SARS-CoV-2 variants in Colombia during the epidemiological peaks of 2021 were isolated. Microneutralization assays were performed by incubating 120 TCDI50 of each SARS-CoV-2 isolate with five 2-fold serial dilutions of sera from 14 BNT162b2 vaccinated volunteers. The MN50 titer was calculated by the Reed-Muench formula Results The three isolated variants were Mu, a Variant of Interest (VOI), Gamma, a variant of concern (VOC), and B.1.111 that lacks genetic markers associated with greater virulence. At the end of August, the Mu and Gamma variants were widely distributed in Colombia. Mu was predominant (49%), followed by Gamma (25%). In contrast, B.1.111 became almost undetectable. The evaluation of neutralizing antibodies suggests that patients vaccinated with BNT162-2 generate neutralizing antibody titers against the Mu variant at significantly lower concentrations relative to B.1.111 and Gamma. Conclusions This study shows the importance of continuing with surveillance programs of emerging variants as well as the need to evaluate the neutralizing antibody response induced by other vaccines circulating in the country against Mu and other variants with high epidemiological impact.

The effect of notification window length on the epidemiological impact of COVID-19 contact tracing mobile applications

The reduction in SARS-CoV-2 transmission from contact tracing applications (apps) depends both on the number of contacts notified and on the probability that those contacts quarantine after notification.Referring to the number of days preceding a positive test that contacts are notified as an app's notification window, we use an epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission that captures the profile of infection to consider the trade-off between notification window length and active app-usage. We focus on 5-day and 2-day windows, the lengths used by the NHS COVID-19 app in England and Wales before and after 2nd August 2021, respectively. Short windows can be more effective at reducing transmission if they are associated with higher levels of active app usage and adherence to isolation upon notification, demonstrating the importance of understanding adherence to control measures when setting notification windows for COVID-19 apps.

Achieving a “step change” in the tuberculosis epidemic through comprehensive community-wide intervention: a model-based analysis

Background Global progress towards reducing tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality has consistently lagged behind the World Health Organization targets leading to a perception that large reductions in TB burden cannot be achieved. However, several recent and historical trials suggest that intervention efforts that are comprehensive and intensive can have a substantial epidemiological impact. We aimed to quantify the potential epidemiological impact of an intensive but realistic, community-wide campaign utilizing existing tools and designed to achieve a “step change” in the TB burden. Methods We developed a compartmental model that resembled TB transmission and epidemiology of a mid-sized city in India, the country with the greatest absolute TB burden worldwide. We modeled the impact of a one-time, community-wide screening campaign, with treatment for TB disease and preventive therapy for latent TB infection (LTBI). This one-time intervention was followed by the strengthening of the tuberculosis-related health system, potentially facilitated by leveraging the one-time campaign. We estimated the tuberculosis cases and deaths that could be averted over 10 years using this comprehensive approach and assessed the contributions of individual components of the intervention. Results A campaign that successfully screened 70% of the adult population for active and latent tuberculosis and subsequently reduced diagnostic and treatment delays and unsuccessful treatment outcomes by 50% was projected to avert 7800 (95% range 5450–10,200) cases and 1710 (1290–2180) tuberculosis-related deaths per 1 million population over 10 years. Of the total averted deaths, 33.5% (28.2–38.3) were attributable to the inclusion of preventive therapy and 52.9% (48.4–56.9) to health system strengthening. Conclusions A one-time, community-wide mass campaign, comprehensively designed to detect, treat, and prevent tuberculosis with currently existing tools can have a meaningful and long-lasting epidemiological impact. Successful treatment of LTBI is critical to achieving this result. Health system strengthening is essential to any effort to transform the TB response.