Size matters: diatom establishment and extirpation timing in the Laurentian Great Lakes has been influenced by cell size

The Laurentian Great Lakes are among the planet’s fastest-warming lakes. Recent paleolimnological studies have shown changes in the diatom community of the system, including shifts towards taxa characteristic of strongly stratified systems and ongoing cell-size diminution. Relationships between species’ cell size and establishment in—or extirpation from—the system have not been addressed. Examining patterns of establishment and extirpation provides insight into the effects of multiple stressors at the ecosystem scale. We evaluate the timing of the establishment or extirpation of diatom taxa from fossil records post-European settlement within the Great Lakes as a function of cell size. Relationships between establishment or extirpation date and cell size were not random, and were best expressed as cubic curves. Generally, large taxa became established early in the record, while establishments of smaller taxa continued apace until the late 20th century. Extirpations of taxa of all sizes accelerated in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, and large-celled taxa were disproportionately extirpated over the last two decades. We discuss the implications of these relationships on the overall cell-size characteristics of the community, and consider the influences of propagule pressure, nutrient status, species invasions, and climate change upon diatom establishment and extirpation.