Simulating Succession of Riparian Spruce Forests and White-Tailed Deer Carrying Capacity in Northwestern Montana
Abstract Rates of succession were determined during the period 1945-80 in six floodplain plant communities along the North Fork of the Flathead River, Montana. A succession model was developed to forecast the long-range effects of land-use change on the carrying capacity of white-tailed deer winter range. The areas occupied by mature spruce (Picea englemannii x glauca hybrid) and spruce-black cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa) forests on the floodplain were relatively constant between 1945-1980. Early seral types were more variable due to short-term variations in river flow. Successional modelling demonstrated the effects of two timber harvesting strategies on white-tailed deer populations. Simulated populations declined following two timber harvesting schedules, but recovered after cessation of harvest. An additional application of the model showed the potential effects of increased erosion rates on deer populations and demonstrated the versatility of land succession models for resource monitoring. West. J. Appl. For. 2(3):80-83, July 1987