scholarly journals Misdiagnosis prevents accurate monitoring of transmission and burden for sub-critical pathogens: a case study of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
John H Huber
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Plasmodium Knowlesi ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Pathogen Transmission ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Transmission Chain ◽  
Complete Observation

Maintaining surveillance of emerging infectious diseases presents challenges for monitoring their transmission and burden. Incomplete observation of infections and imperfect diagnosis reduce the observed sizes of transmission chains relative to their true sizes. Previous studies have examined the effect of incomplete observation on estimates of pathogen transmission and burden. However, each study assumed that, if observed, each infection was correctly diagnosed. Here, I leveraged principles from branching process theory to examine how misdiagnosis could contribute to bias in estimates of transmission and burden for emerging infectious diseases. Using the zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi malaria as a case study, I found that, even when assuming complete observation of infections, the number of misdiagnosed cases within a transmission chain for every correctly diagnosed case could range from 0 (0 - 4) when R0 was 0.1 to 86 (0 - 837) when R0 was 0.9. Data on transmission chain sizes obtained using an imperfect diagnostic could consistently lead to underestimates of R0, the basic reproduction number, and simulations revealed that such data on up to 1,000 observed transmission chains was not powered to detect changes in transmission. My results demonstrate that misdiagnosis may hinder effective monitoring of emerging infectious diseases and that sensitivity of diagnostics should be considered in evaluations of surveillance systems.

Awareness of symptomatic differences Covid-19, SARS, Swine Flu, Common cold among dental students

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 1026-1033
Author(s):  
Nivedha Valliammai Mahalingam ◽  
Abilasha R ◽  
Kavitha S
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Undergraduate Students ◽  
Common Cold ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Dental Students ◽  
Swine Flu ◽  
Viral Diseases ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Impact

Enormous successes have been obtained against the control of major epidemic diseases, such as SARS, MERS, Ebola, Swine Flu in the past. Dynamic interplay of biological, socio-cultural and ecological factors, together with novel aspects of human-animal interphase, pose additional challenges with respect to the emergence of infectious diseases. The important challenges faced in the control and prevention of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases range from understanding the impact of factors that are necessary for the emergence, to development of strengthened surveillance systems that can mitigate human suffering and death. The aim of the current study is to assess the awareness of symptomatic differences between viral diseases like COVID-19, SARS, Swine flu and common cold among dental students that support the prevention of emergence or re-emergence. Cross-sectional type of study conducted among the undergraduate students comprising 100 Subjects. A questionnaire comprising 15 questions in total were framed, and responses were collected in Google forms in SPSS Software statistical analysis. The study has concluded that dental students have an awareness of the symptomatic differences between infectious viral disease. The study concluded that the awareness of symptomatic differences between viral diseases like COVID-19, SARS, Swine flu, Common cold is good among the dental students who would pave the way for early diagnosis and avoid spreading of such diseases. A further awareness can be created by regular webinars, seminars and brainstorming sessions among these healthcare professionals.

Enhancing Student Learning on Emerging Infectious Diseases: An Ebola Exemplar

2018 ◽  
Vol 80 (7) ◽  
pp. 493-500
Author(s):  
Derek Dube ◽  
Tracie M. Addy ◽  
Maria R. Teixeira ◽  
Linda M. Iadarola
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Undergraduate Students ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Health Science ◽  
Science Courses ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Mode Of Instruction

Throughout global history, various infectious diseases have emerged as particularly relevant within an era. Some examples include the Bubonic plague of the fourteenth century, the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918, the HIV epidemic of the 1980s, and the Zika virus outbreak in 2015–16. These instances of emerging infectious disease represent ideal opportunities for timely, relevant instruction in natural and health science courses through case studies. Such instructional approaches can promote student engagement in the material and encourage application and higher-order thinking. We describe here how the case study approach was utilized to teach students about emerging infectious diseases using the 2014–16 Ebola virus outbreak as the subject of instruction. Results suggest that students completing the case study not only had positive perceptions of the mode of instruction, but also realized learning gains and misconception resolution. These outcomes support the efficacy of case pedagogy as a useful teaching tool in emerging infectious diseases, and augment the paucity of literature examining Ebola virus knowledge and misconceptions among undergraduate students within United States institutions.

scholarly journals Emerging viral infectious disease threat: Why Tanzania is not in a safe zone

2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chacha D. Mangu ◽  
Christina K. Manyama ◽  
Henry Msila ◽  
Lwitiho Sudi ◽  
Godlove Chaula ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Early Response ◽  
Emerging Diseases ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Viral Infectious Disease ◽  
The Government

Emerging diseases are global threat towards human existence. Every country is exposed to potentially emergence of infectious diseases. Several factor such as changes in ecology, climate and human demographics play different roles in a complex mechanism contributing to the occurrence of infectious diseases. Important aspects towards control in case of outbreaks are surveillance, preparedness and early response. Tanzania should therefore take opportunity of the calm situation currently present, to prepare. Except for HIV/AIDS, Tanzania has not experienced a major public health threat. However, the question is, is the country safe from emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases? In this article we try to explore the danger of emerging infectious disease (EID) epidemics in Tanzania and the risks attached if an outbreak is to occur. The aim is to formulate recommendations to the government, responsible authorities and general population of what can be done to improve the level of EID preparedness in the country. In conclusion, it is important to strengthen the capacity of community and healthcare staffs on how to respond to potential infectious disease outbreaks. Community-based surveillance systems should be incorporated into the national systems for early detection of public health events. It is also critical to enhance one health approach to increase cross-sectoral information sharing, surveillance and interventional strategies as regards to preparedness and response to disease outbreaks.

scholarly journals Internet-based surveillance systems for monitoring emerging infectious diseases

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 160-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel J Milinovich ◽  
Gail M Williams ◽  
Archie C A Clements ◽  
Wenbiao Hu
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Surveillance Systems

scholarly journals Fundamental limits on inferring epidemic resurgence in real time

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kris V Parag ◽  
Christl A. Donnelly
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Syndromic Surveillance ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Pathogen Transmission ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Fundamental Limits

We find that epidemic resurgence, defined as an upswing in the effective reproduction number (R) of the contagion from subcritical to supercritical values, is fundamentally difficult to detect in real time. Intrinsic latencies in pathogen transmission, coupled with often smaller incidence across periods of subcritical spread mean that resurgence cannot be reliably detected without significant delays, even if case reporting is perfect. This belies epidemic suppression (where R falls from supercritical to subcritical values), which can be ascertained 5-10 times more rapidly. These innate limits on detecting resurgence only worsen when spatial or demographic heterogeneities are incorporated. Consequently, we argue that resurgence is more effectively handled proactively, at the expense of false alarms. Responses to recrudescent infections or emerging variants of concern will more likely be timely if informed by improved syndromic surveillance systems than by optimised mathematical models of epidemic spread.

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