Estimating the impact of implementation and timing of COVID-19 vaccination program in Brazil: a counterfactual analysis

The vaccines developed in 2020-2021 against the SARS-CoV-2 virus were designed to prevent severity and deaths due to COVID-19. However, how effective this vaccination campaign was at saving lives remains a methodological challenge. In this work, we developed a Bayesian statistical model to estimate the number of deaths and hospitalizations in individuals above 60 years old in Brazil. Using the actual number of hospitalized and deaths from the Brazilian database, and also the coverage of second dose according to the National Immunization Program, we rebuilt the realized scenario as well as the hypothetical scenario without vaccination in Brazil in order to perform a counterfactual analysis. By computing the difference between the hypothetical and realized scenarios, we were able to estimate the direct effect of COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil. We also evaluated two other hypothetical, but not impossible, scenarios considering earlier vaccination roll-outs. We estimated that more than 165 thousand of 60+ years old individuals were not hospitalized due to COVID-19 until August 28, 2021, and other approximately 100 thousand individuals could not have been hospitalized if the immunization started as soon it was approved in Brazil. We also estimate that more than 75 thousand lives were saved in the period analysed for the same age group, and additional 48 thousand lives could have been saved if the Brazilian Government started the immunization 8 weeks earlier.

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Whole genome sequence analysis of Salmonella Typhi isolated in Thailand before and after the introduction of a national immunization program

10.1101/076422 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Zoe A. Dyson ◽

Duy Pham Thanh ◽

Ladaporn Bodhidatta ◽

Carl Jeffries Mason ◽

Apichai Srijan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Typhoid Fever ◽

Low Income ◽

Whole Genome ◽

Immunization Programs ◽

National Immunization Program ◽

Immunization Program ◽

National Immunization ◽

Before And After ◽

Endemic Areas ◽

The Impact

AbstractVaccines against Salmonella Typhi, the causative agent of typhoid fever, are commonly used by travellers, however, there are few examples of national immunization programs in endemic areas. There is therefore a paucity of data on the impact of typhoid immunization programs on localised populations of S. Typhi. Here we have used whole genome sequencing (WGS) to characterise 44 historical bacterial isolates collected before and after a national typhoid immunization program that was implemented in Thailand in 1977 in response to a large outbreak; the program was highly effective in reducing typhoid case numbers. Thai isolates were highly diverse, including 10 distinct phylogenetic lineages or genotypes. Novel prophage and plasmids were also detected, including examples that were previously only reported in Shigella sonnei and Escherichia coli. The majority of S. Typhi genotypes observed prior to the immunization program were not observed following it. Post-vaccine era isolates were more closely related to S. Typhi isolated from neighbouring countries than to earlier Thai isolates, providing no evidence for the local persistence of endemic S. Typhi following the national immunization program. Rather, later cases of typhoid appeared to be caused by the occasional importation of common genotypes from neighbouring Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. These data show the value of WGS in understanding the impacts of vaccination on pathogen populations and provide support for the proposal that large-scale typhoid immunization programs in endemic areas could result in lasting local disease elimination, although larger prospective studies are needed to test this directly.Author SummaryTyphoid fever is a systemic infection caused by the bacterium Salmonella Typhi. Typhoid fever is associated with inadequate hygiene in low-income settings and a lack of sanitation infrastructure. A sustained outbreak of typhoid fever occurred in Thailand in the 1970s, which peaked in 1975-1976. In response to this typhoid fever outbreak the government of Thailand initiated an immunization program, which resulted in a dramatic reduction in the number of typhoid cases in Thailand. To better understand the population of S. Typhi circulating in Thailand at this time, as well as the impact of the immunization program on the pathogen population, we sequenced the genomes of 44 S. Typhi obtained from hospitals in Thailand before and after the immunization program. The genome sequences showed that isolates of S. Typhi bacteria isolated from post-immunization era typhoid cases were likely imported from neighbouring countries, rather than strains that have persisted in Thailand throughout the immunization period. Our work provides the first historical insights into S. Typhi in Thailand during the 1970s, and provides a model for the impact of immunization on S. Typhi populations.

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Vaccination coverage in adolescents in Brazil: The challenge of a giant

Panorama brasileiro de tungstênio (w) entre os anos de 2008 e 2014 ◽

10.32749/nucleodoconhecimento.com.br/health/vaccination-coverage ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 21-35

Author(s):

Catiane Raquel Sousa Fernandes ◽

Gabriela Oliveira Parentes Da Costa ◽

Danielle Priscilla Sousa Oliveira ◽

Michelle Kerin Lopes ◽

Cícera Jaqueline Ferreira de Lima ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Latin American ◽

Vaccination Coverage ◽

Analytical Study ◽

Caribbean Literature ◽

Age Group ◽

National Immunization Program ◽

Immunization Program ◽

Pubmed Central ◽

Effective Strategies ◽

National Immunization

Descriptive analytical study on scientific production on the vaccination coverage of adolescents in Brazil, using the integrative review method through research in the Pubmed Central, LILACS (Latin American and Caribbean Literature in Health Sciences) and ADOLEC databases. The selected sample was 07 articles, which were inferred quali and quantitatively. As a conclusion, it was obtained that there is satisfactory vaccination coverage for adolescents aged 10 to 14 years and reduced percentage for adolescents aged 15 to 19 years. It is concluded that there is a gap in the CV of adolescents due to misinformation or the strategies used by the PNI (National Immunization Program), in this range are not contextualized for this public, and there is a need for deepening effective strategies for the 15 to 19 year old age group.

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Is there evidence that BCG vaccination has non-specific protective effects for COVID 19 infections or is it an illusion created by lack of testing?

10.1101/2020.04.18.20071142 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Shivendu Shivendu ◽

Saurav Chakraborty ◽

Agnieszka Onuchowska ◽

Ankit Patidar ◽

Arpit Srivastava

Keyword(s):

Statistical Evidence ◽

Protective Effects ◽

National Immunization Program ◽

Immunization Program ◽

Bcg Vaccination ◽

National Immunization ◽

Disease Pattern ◽

The Impact ◽

The Relationship ◽

Analyze Data

AbstractThe goal of this paper is to showcase that the COVID-19 disease pattern is evolving and to study the relationship between mandatory BCG policy and caseload/million or death/per million. We analyze seven recent publications on the impact of BCG vaccinations on the development of COVID19 illness and extend presented findings using the latest data from April 10, 2020. We analyze data from 98 countries and we extend existing models by adding the dimension of COVID-19-related testing conducted by the analyzed countries. Similarly to prior studies, we find that COVID-19 attributable case and death incidences across countries share a relationship with a country’s BCG vaccination inclusion in the national immunization program when testing is not taken into consideration. However, this relationship vanishes when we add the dimension of testing. We observe that case and death incidences conditional on testing do not get affected by the countries’ BCG vaccination inclusion in the national immunization program. Therefore, we show that there is no statistical evidence to support the assertion that inclusion of BCG vaccination in national immunization program (NIP) has any impact of COVID 19 infections (cases) or mortality.

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SURVILLANCE OF INVASIVE PNEUMOCOCCAL DISEASE IN CHILEAN PEDIATRIC HOSPITAL BEFORE AND AFTER 10 VALENT PNEUMOCOCCCAL CONJUGATE VACCINE (PCV-10) INTRODUCTION IN NATIONAL IMMUNIZATION PROGRAM

10.26226/morressier.5731f0d3d462b8029237fea1 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Mirta Acuña

Keyword(s):

Conjugate Vaccine ◽

Invasive Pneumococcal Disease ◽

Pneumococcal Disease ◽

Pediatric Hospital ◽

National Immunization Program ◽

Immunization Program ◽

National Immunization ◽

Before And After

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introduction of PVC13 in the National Immunization Program PNEUMOCOCCAL MUCOSAL DISEASE RESISTANCE PATTERN IN CENTRAL ROMANIA AFTER INTRODUCTION OF PCV13 IN THE NATIONAL IMMUNIZATION PROGRAM

10.26226/morressier.5ad774dfd462b80296ca6ac1 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Raluca Lixandru

Keyword(s):

Disease Resistance ◽

Resistance Pattern ◽

National Immunization Program ◽

Immunization Program ◽

Mucosal Disease ◽

National Immunization

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Predictors of Immunization Coverage among under Two-Year-Old Children in the National Immunization Program of Raipur District of Chhattisgarh, 2019

TEXILA INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH ◽

10.21522/tijph.2013.se.19.02.art018 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 130-136

Author(s):

Manish kumar Gawande

Keyword(s):

Immunization Coverage ◽

National Immunization Program ◽

Immunization Program ◽

National Immunization

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Hepatitis A virus knowledge and immunization attitudes and practices in the United Arab Emirates community

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-020-80089-4 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Kamel A. Samara ◽

Hiba J. Barqawi ◽

Basant H. Aboelsoud ◽

Moza A. AlZaabi ◽

Fay T. Alraddawi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United Arab Emirates ◽

Hepatitis A ◽

Hepatitis A Virus ◽

Immunization Schedule ◽

National Immunization Program ◽

Immunization Program ◽

Attitudes And Practices ◽

Awareness Campaigns ◽

Positive Attitudes ◽

National Immunization

AbstractAnnually, 1.5 million cases of hepatitis A infection occur worldwide. The United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) has seen a decrease in infection rates and seroprevalence coupled with an increase in the average age of infection. This study aimed to assess the U.A.E. society’s hepatitis A knowledge, and attitudes and vaccination practices, with the applicability of its introduction into the local immunization schedule. A self-administered, 50-item questionnaire was used to collect data from the four most populous cities in the U.A.E., between January and March 2020. A total of 458 responses were collected and analysed using IBM-SPSS-26, R-4.0.0 and Matplotlib-v3.2.1. Females had better attitudes (P = 0.036), practices (P < 0.0005), immunization schedule knowledge (AOR = 3.019; CI 1.482–6.678), and appreciation of the immunization schedule (AOR = 2.141; CI 1.310–3.499). A higher level of perceived knowledge was associated with an actual better knowledge (P < 0.0005), better practices (P = 0.011), and increased willingness to get vaccinated (AOR = 1.988; CI 1.032–3.828). Respondents were more likely to vaccinate their children against HAV if the vaccine were introduced into the National Immunization Program (P < 0.0005). Overall, disease knowledge was lacking but with positive attitudes and poor practices. There is high trust in the National Immunization Program and a potential for improving poor practices through local awareness campaigns.

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