scholarly journals Monarch butterfly declines reported in Boyle et al. (2019) are biased by unexamined changes in museum collections over time

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tyson Wepprich
Keyword(s):  
Species Interactions ◽  
Danaus Plexippus ◽  
Population Monitoring ◽  
Monarch Butterfly ◽  
Sampling Effort ◽  
World Population ◽  
Abundance Estimates ◽  
Collection Data ◽  
Over Time

AbstractMuseum records provide an underutilized source of information for documenting long-term changes in phenology, species interactions, and trait evolution. However, non-systematic collection data must be treated carefully if they are to approximate abundance, as trends may be confounded with spatial or temporal changes in sampling effort. Boyle et al. (2019b) argue that the relative abundance of Eastern North American Monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) has been in a long-term decline since the mid-20th century, following a similar decline in milkweed (Asclepias spp.) herbarium records. I demonstrate that this reported abundance trend is biased by the choice to standardize Monarch records as a proportion of all Lepidoptera collected. The sampling of Lepidoptera has changed systematically over time to favor moths, causing the apparent trend in Monarch records. With the data standardized more appropriately, I show that the trend in Monarch records shows no mid-century decline and increases over recent decades. As the trend in Monarch museum specimens contradicts the recent trend in Monarch abundance documented from systematic population monitoring, I argue that these records are unreliable for abundance estimates. The conclusion in Boyle et al. (2019b) that Monarch declines started in the mid-20th century is unwarranted both because the trend is biased by sampling changes in museum records and because the trend in Monarch records, when corrected, does not correspond with real-world population abundance.

scholarly journals Long-term dynamics of the human oral microbiome during clinical disease progression

BMC Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Duran-Pinedo ◽  
Jose Solbiati ◽  
Flavia Teles ◽  
Ricardo Teles ◽  
Yanping Zang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Species ◽  
Disease Progression ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Oral Microbiome ◽  
Close Relative ◽  
Α Diversity ◽  
Community Convergence ◽  
Recruitment Model ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background Oral microbiome dysbiosis is linked to overt inflammation of tooth-supporting tissues, leading to periodontitis, an oral condition that can cause tooth and bone loss. Microbiome dysbiosis has been described as a disruption in the symbiotic microbiota composition’s stability that could adversely affect the host’s health status. However, the precise microbiome dynamics that lead to dysbiosis and the progression of the disease are largely unknown. The objective of our study was to investigate the long-term dynamics of periodontitis progression and its connection to dysbiosis. Results We studied three different teeth groups: sites that showed disease progression, sites that remained stable during the study, and sites that exhibited a cyclic deepening followed by spontaneous recovery. Time-series analysis revealed that communities followed a characteristic succession of bacteria clusters. Stable and fluctuating sites showed high asynchrony in the communities (i.e., different species responding dissimilarly through time) and a reordering of the communities where directional changes dominated (i.e., sample distance increases over time) in the stable sites but not in the fluctuating sites. Progressing sites exhibited low asynchrony and convergence (i.e., samples distance decreases over time). Moreover, new species were more likely to be recruited in stable samples if a close relative was not recruited previously. In contrast, progressing and fluctuating sites followed a neutral recruitment model, indicating that competition between closely related species is a significant component of species-species interactions in stable samples. Finally, periodontal treatment did not select similar communities but stabilized α-diversity, centered the abundance of different clusters to the mean, and increased community rearrangement. Conclusions Here, we show that ecological principles can define dysbiosis and explain the evolution and outcomes of specific microbial communities of the oral microbiome in periodontitis progression. All sites showed an ecological succession in community composition. Stable sites were characterized by high asynchrony, a reordering of the communities where directional changes dominated, and new species were more likely to be recruited if a close relative was not recruited previously. Progressing sites were characterized by low asynchrony, community convergence, and a neutral model of recruitment. Finally, fluctuating sites were characterized by high asynchrony, community convergence, and a neutral recruitment model.

scholarly journals Historic collections as a tool for assessing the global pollinator crisis

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Bartomeus ◽  
J.R. Stavert ◽  
D. Ward ◽  
O. Aguado
Keyword(s):  
Species Interactions ◽  
Pollination Services ◽  
Specimen Collection ◽  
As Species ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
The Status ◽  
Species Abundances ◽  
Collection Data ◽  
Pollinator Declines

AbstractThere is increasing concern about the decline of pollinators worldwide. However, despite reports that pollinator declines are widespread, data are scarce and often geographically and taxonomically biased. These biases limit robust inference about any potential pollinator crisis. Non-structured and opportunistic historical specimen collection data provide the only source of historical information which can serve as a baseline for identifying pollinator declines. Specimens historically collected and preserved in museums not only provide information on where and when species were collected, but also contain other ecological information such as species interactions and morphological traits. Here, we provide a synthesis of how researchers have used historical data to identify long-term changes in biodiversity, species abundances, morphology and pollination services. Despite recent advances, we show that information on the status and trends of most pollinators is absent, but we highlight opportunities and limitations to progress the assessment of pollinator declines globally. Finally, we demonstrate different approaches to analysing museum collection data using two contrasting case studies from distinct geographical regions (New Zealand and Spain) for which long-term pollinator declines have never been assessed. There is immense potential for museum specimens to play a central role in assessing the extent of the global pollination crisis.

scholarly journals Leopard Panthera pardus fusca Density in the Seasonally Dry, Subtropical Forest in the Bhabhar of Terai Arc, Nepal

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kanchan Thapa ◽  
Rinjan Shrestha ◽  
Jhamak Karki ◽  
Gokarna Jung Thapa ◽  
Naresh Subedi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Winter Season ◽  
Population Monitoring ◽  
Panthera Pardus ◽  
Density Estimates ◽  
Seasonally Dry ◽  
Abundance Estimates ◽  
Capture Recapture ◽  
Modelling Techniques ◽  
Wildlife Reserve

We estimated leopard (Panthera pardus fusca) abundance and density in the Bhabhar physiographic region in Parsa Wildlife Reserve, Nepal. The camera trap grid, covering sampling area of 289 km2 with 88 locations, accumulated 1,342 trap nights in 64 days in the winter season of 2008-2009 and photographed 19 individual leopards. Using models incorporating heterogeneity, we estimated 28 (±SE 6.07) and 29.58 (±SE 10.44) leopards in Programs CAPTURE and MARK. Density estimates via 1/2 MMDM methods were 5.61 (±SE 1.30) and 5.93 (±SE 2.15) leopards per 100 km2 using abundance estimates from CAPTURE and MARK, respectively. Spatially explicit capture recapture (SECR) models resulted in lower density estimates, 3.78 (±SE 0.85) and 3.48 (±SE 0.83) leopards per 100 km2, in likelihood based program DENSITY and Bayesian based program SPACECAP, respectively. The 1/2 MMDM methods have been known to provide much higher density estimates than SECR modelling techniques. However, our SECR models resulted in high leopard density comparable to areas considered better habitat in Nepal indicating a potentially dense population compared to other sites. We provide the first density estimates for leopards in the Bhabhar and a baseline for long term population monitoring of leopards in Parsa Wildlife Reserve and across the Terai Arc.

An Ecological Field Lab for Tracking Monarch Butterflies & Their Parasites

2010 ◽  
Vol 72 (6) ◽  
pp. 339-344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carrie N. Wells
Keyword(s):  
Citizen Science ◽  
Scientific Method ◽  
Danaus Plexippus ◽  
Monarch Butterfly ◽  
Biological Research ◽  
Research Projects ◽  
Ecological Data ◽  
Monarch Butterflies

The inclusion of nonscientists in biological research projects has become a useful mechanism for capturing long-term ecological data while exposing students firsthand to science and the scientific method. I have combined several existing citizen-science-based research efforts focused on Danaus plexippus, the monarch butterfly, into a comprehensive yet simple ecological lab activity that is appropriate for all ages and biological backgrounds.

scholarly journals Historical collections as a tool for assessing the global pollination crisis

2018 ◽  
Vol 374 (1763) ◽  
pp. 20170389 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Bartomeus ◽  
J. R. Stavert ◽  
D. Ward ◽  
O. Aguado
Keyword(s):  
Species Interactions ◽  
Pollination Services ◽  
Historical Collections ◽  
Specimen Collection ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
The Status ◽  
Species Abundances ◽  
Collection Data ◽  
Pollinator Declines

There is increasing concern about the decline of pollinators worldwide. However, despite reports that pollinator declines are widespread, data are scarce and often geographically and taxonomically biased. These biases limit robust inference about any potential pollinator crisis. Non-structured and opportunistic historical specimen collection data provide the only source of historical information which can serve as a baseline for identifying pollinator declines. Specimens historically collected and preserved in museums not only provide information on where and when species were collected, but also contain other ecological information such as species interactions and morphological traits. Here, we provide a synthesis of how researchers have used historical data to identify long-term changes in biodiversity, species abundances, morphology and pollination services. Despite recent advances, we show that information on the status and trends of most pollinators is absent. We highlight opportunities and limitations to progress the assessment of pollinator declines globally. Finally, we demonstrate different approaches to analysing museum collection data using two contrasting case studies from distinct geographical regions (New Zealand and Spain) for which long-term pollinator declines have never been assessed. There is immense potential for museum specimens to play a central role in assessing the extent of the global pollination crisis. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene’.

Population monitoring of a threatened gliding mammal in subtropical Australia

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (6) ◽  
pp. 413 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ross L. Goldingay ◽  
Darren McHugh ◽  
Jonathan L. Parkyn
Keyword(s):  
Site Occupancy ◽  
Population Monitoring ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Imperfect Detection ◽  
North East ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Abundance Estimates ◽  
Petaurus Australis ◽  
Subtropical Australia

Population monitoring is fundamental to the conservation of threatened species. This study aimed to develop an effective approach for long-term monitoring of the yellow-bellied glider (Petaurus australis) in north-east New South Wales. We conducted repeat surveys to account for imperfect detection and used counts in abundance modelling to produce indices of abundance. We used simulations to explore refinements to our study design. Surveys over three consecutive years produced 195 detections with >95% of detections by call. The probability of detection varied across years and survey occasions, ranging from 0.22 to 0.71. Abundance estimates were remarkably constant across years, ranging from 2.3 ± 0.5 to 2.4 ± 0.6 individuals per site. Occupancy estimates were also constant across years (0.90–0.91). Simulations were run to investigate the influence of the number of surveys (2 or 3) and the number of survey sites (20, 40 or 50) on the probability of occupancy. The design that reduced bias and provided an adequate improvement to precision was that of three visits to 40 survey sites. This design should be adequate to detect a decline in population abundance. Further studies of this kind are needed to better understand the population dynamics of this species.

Demographic gaps between Syrian and the European populations: What do they suggest?

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 207-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Murat Yucesahin ◽  
Ibrahim Sirkeci
Keyword(s):  
Transition Theory ◽  
World Population ◽  
Demographic Analysis ◽  
Demographic Differences ◽  
Syrian Crisis ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Syrian Population ◽  
Displaced People ◽  
Near Future

Syrian crisis resulted in at least 6.1 million externally displaced people 983,876 of whom are in Europe while the rest are in neighbouring countries in the region. Turkey, due to its geographical proximity and substantial land borders with the country, has been the most popular destination for those fleeing Syria since April 2011. Especially after 2012, a sharp increase in the number of Syrian refugees arriving in Turkey was witnessed. This has triggered an exponential growth in academic and public interest in Syrian population. Numerous reports mostly based on non-representative sample surveys have been disseminated whilst authoritative robust analyses remained absent. This study aims to fill this gap by offering a comprehensive demographic analysis of the Syrian population. We focus on the demographic differences (from 1950s to 2015) and demographic trends (from 2015 to 2100) in medium to long term, based on data from World Population Prospects (WPP). We offer a comparative picture to underline potential changes and convergences between populations in Syria, Turkey, Germany, and the United Kingdom. We frame our discussion here with reference to the demographic transition theory to help understanding the implications for movers and non-movers in receiving countries in the near future.

Using Long-Term Population Monitoring Data to Prioritize Conservation Action among Rare Plant Species

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holly L. Bernardo ◽  
Pati Vitt ◽  
Rachel Goad ◽  
Susanne Masi ◽  
Tiffany M. Knight
Keyword(s):  
Plant Species ◽  
Population Monitoring ◽  
Monitoring Data ◽  
Rare Plant ◽  
Conservation Action ◽  
Rare Plant Species

Effects of GMO agricultural products on living things

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
ERCAN ÇATAK ◽  
Ali ATALAY
Keyword(s):  
Genetically Modified Organisms ◽  
World Population ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Living Things ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Agricultural Use ◽  
Late Twentieth Century ◽  
Living Creature

By obtaining changes on gene sequences of living things with the applied biotechnological methods; The idea of "Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO)", which aims to bring the living creature in question the original gene combinations with the desired characteristics, came to life in the late twentieth century. Despite the high probability that hunger problems may increase with the increasing world population; It is thought that plant breeding with classical farming methods will be insufficient in solving these problems. With various GMO applications developed all over the world, it aims to produce solutions to these problems. With the presence of GMO, it was possible to increase the shelf life of qualitative and quantitative values of the existing foods. In addition, decreases in agricultural use of pesticides used in agricultural struggle and threatening human health with GMO production are noteworthy. However, some concerns about anomalies that may occur in living things fed GMO products remain on the agenda. Because, in the long term, there is no clear and precise information that GMO will not have negative effects on living things; There are many recorded incidents showing their negative effects.

Enhancing community welfare through improved water quality: a case for applying staggered pollution charges in the river Musi sub-basin of Andhra Pradesh, India

Water Policy ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 469-483
Author(s):  
Tishya Chatterjee
Keyword(s):  
Andhra Pradesh ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Pollution Prevention ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Marginal Costs ◽  
Community Acceptance ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Over Time

In conditions of severe water-pollution and dormant community acceptance of accumulating environmental damage, the regulator's role goes beyond pollution prevention and more towards remediation and solutions based on the community's long-term expectations of economic benefits from clean water. This paper suggests a method to enable these benefits to become perceptible progressively, through participatory clean-up operations, supported by staggered pollution charges. It analyses the relevant literature on pollution prevention and applies a cost-based “willingness to pay” model, using primary basin-level data of total marginal costs. It develops a replicable demand-side approach imposing charge-standard targets over time in urban-industrial basins of developing countries.

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