Social distancing in pedestrian dynamics and its effect on disease spreading

Abstract Recently, various mathematical models have been proposed to model COVID-19 outbreak. These models are an effective tool to study the mechanisms of coronavirus spreading and to predict the future course of COVID-19 disease. They are also used to evaluate strategies to control this pandemic. Generally, SIR compartmental models are appropriate for understanding and predicting the dynamics of infectious diseases like COVID-19. The classical SIR model is initially introduced by Kermack and McKendrick (cf. (Anderson, R. M. 1991. “Discussion: the Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic Threshold Theorem.” Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 53 (1): 3–32; Kermack, W. O., and A. G. McKendrick. 1927. “A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics.” Proceedings of the Royal Society 115 (772): 700–21)) to describe the evolution of the susceptible, infected and recovered compartment. Focused on the impact of public policies designed to contain this pandemic, we develop a new nonlinear SIR epidemic problem modeling the spreading of coronavirus under the effect of a social distancing induced by the government measures to stop coronavirus spreading. To find the parameters adopted for each country (for e.g. Germany, Spain, Italy, France, Algeria and Morocco) we fit the proposed model with respect to the actual real data. We also evaluate the government measures in each country with respect to the evolution of the pandemic. Our numerical simulations can be used to provide an effective tool for predicting the spread of the disease.

Download Full-text

SOCIAL DISTANCING STRATEGIES AGAINST DISEASE SPREADING

Fractals ◽

10.1142/s0218348x13500199 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 21 (03n04) ◽

pp. 1350019 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

L. D. VALDEZ ◽

C. BUONO ◽

P. A. MACRI ◽

L. A. BRAUNSTEIN

Keyword(s):

Infectious Diseases ◽

Healthy Individual ◽

Percolation Theory ◽

Quenched Disorder ◽

Epidemic Spreading ◽

Heterogeneous Distribution ◽

Percolation Process ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Disease Spreading

The recurrent infectious diseases and their increasing impact on the society has promoted the study of strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading. In this review we outline the applications of percolation theory to describe strategies against epidemic spreading on complex networks. We give a general outlook of the relation between link percolation and the susceptible-infected-recovered model, and introduce the node void percolation process to describe the dilution of the network composed by healthy individual, i.e., the network that sustain the functionality of a society. Then, we survey two strategies: the quenched disorder strategy where an heterogeneous distribution of contact intensities is induced in society, and the intermittent social distancing strategy where health individuals are persuaded to avoid contact with their neighbors for intermittent periods of time. Using percolation tools, we show that both strategies may halt the epidemic spreading. Finally, we discuss the role of the transmissibility, i.e., the effective probability to transmit a disease, on the performance of the strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading.

Download Full-text

Asian Countries Response and Management against the COVID-19 Pandemic

10.31219/osf.io/9dbjt ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Shipra Agarwal

Keyword(s):

Contact Tracing ◽

Asian Countries ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Case Identification ◽

Disease Spreading ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Restrictive Measures

Restrictive measures like social distancing, lockdown, case identification, isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine of exposed people were revealed to the most efficient actions to control the disease spreading. This presents an overview of the presently obtainable information on the strategies and management of this novel coronavirus

Download Full-text

Social distancing strategies against disease spreading

Perspectives and Challenges in Statistical Physics and Complex Systems for the Next Decade ◽

10.1142/9789814590143_0015 ◽

2014 ◽

pp. 257-283

Author(s):

L. D. Valdez ◽

C. Buono ◽

P. A. Macri ◽

L. A. Braunstein

Keyword(s):

Social Distancing ◽

Disease Spreading

Download Full-text

Social Distancing with the Optimal Steps Model

Collective Dynamics ◽

10.17815/cd.2021.116 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 6 ◽

Author(s):

Christina Maria Mayr ◽

Gerta Köster

Keyword(s):

Social Distance ◽

Personal Space ◽

Simulation Studies ◽

Evacuation Time ◽

Pedestrian Dynamics ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Repulsion Potential ◽

The Social ◽

Physics Modeling ◽

Parameter Values

With the Covid-19 pandemic, an urgent need has arisen to simulate social distancing. The Optimal Steps Model (OSM) is a pedestrian locomotion model that operationalizes an individual's need for personal space. We present new parameter values for personal space in the OSM to simulate social distancing in the pedestrian dynamics simulator Vadere. Our approach is pragmatic. We consider two use cases: in the first, we demand that a set social distance must never be violated. In the second the social distance can be violated temporarily for less than 10s. For each use case we conduct simulation studies in a typical bottleneck scenario and measure contact times, that is, violations of the social distance rule.We conduct regression analysis to assess how the parameter choice depends on the desired social distance and the corridor width. We find that evacuation time increases linearly with the width of the repulsion potential, which is an analogy to physics modeling the strength of the need for personal space. The evacuation time decreases linearly with larger corridor width. The influence of the corridor width on the evacuation time is smaller than the influence of the range of the repulsion, that is, the need for personal space. If the repulsion is too strong, we observe clogging effects. Our regression formulas enable Vadere users to conduct their own studies without understanding the intricacies of the OSM implementation and without extensive parameter adjustment.

Download Full-text

Disease spreading with social distancing: A prevention strategy in disordered multiplex networks

Physical Review E ◽

10.1103/physreve.102.022310 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 102 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Ignacio A. Perez ◽

Matías A. Di Muro ◽

Cristian E. La Rocca ◽

Lidia A. Braunstein

Keyword(s):

Prevention Strategy ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Multiplex Networks ◽

Disease Spreading

Download Full-text

SEIR Model for COVID-19 Dynamics Incorporating the Environment and Social Distancing

10.21203/rs.3.rs-19249/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Samuel Mwalili ◽

Mark Kimanthi ◽

Viona Ojiambo ◽

Duncan Gathungu ◽

Rachel Waema Mbogo

Keyword(s):

Basic Reproduction Number ◽

Human Population ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Epidemic Dynamics ◽

Disease Spreading ◽

Next Generation Matrix ◽

Model Equations ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Fifth Order

Abstract Objective: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic of respiratory disease spreading from person-to-person caused by a novel coronavirus and poses a serious public health risk. The goal of this study is to apply SEIR compartmental mathematical model for prediction of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics incorporating pathogen in the environment and interventions. The next generation matrix approach was used to determine the basic reproduction number R0. The model equations are solved numerically using fourth and fifth order Runge–Kutta methods. Results: The value of basic reproduction number R0 was determined as 2.03, implying that the pandemic will persist in the human population. Results after simulating various scenarios indicate that disregarding social distancing, wearing of masks and frequent washing of hands can have devastating effects on the human population. The model shows that quarantine and isolation are key winners to this pandemic.

Download Full-text