Do mutual fund managers' possess style liquidity timing abilities?

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahfooz Alam ◽  
Valeed Ahmad Ansari
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Indian Context ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Style Timing

PurposeThis paper investigates the style timing and liquidity style timing vis-à-vis the market, size, value and momentum factors of the actively managed Indian equity mutual funds.Design/methodology/approachWe examine the style timing of the funds using the augmented Carhart four-factor model by incorporating timing measures (Treynor and Mazuy; Henriksson and Merton). Based on this, the study explores the four-factor liquidity and volatility style timing exhibited by fund managers. The sample is from April 2000 to March 2018 and spans the volatile 2008 subprime economic crises. The sample comprised 182 actively managed equity funds from various sizes and was considered to be a well-diversified sample.FindingsThe results of our study provide strong evidence of market liquidity timing in India. No other style timing skills are observed in our analysis. Our results also imply that the fund managers might misidentify size timing as market timing if integrated liquidity timing measures are not employed, leading to false conclusions.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings of our study imply that the fund managers might misidentify size timing as market timing if integrated liquidity timing measures are not employed, leading to false conclusions.Originality/valueThis study, to our knowledge, is the first attempt to investigate the portfolio-based style timing in the Indian context.

Emerging market mutual fund performance: evidence for China

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zia-ur-Rehman Rao ◽  
Muhammad Zubair Tauni ◽  
Amjad Iqbal ◽  
Muhammad Umar
Keyword(s):  
Asset Management ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Equity Funds

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to find whether Chinese equity funds outperform the market and do Chinese fund managers possess positive market timing ability. This study also aims to investigate whether well-performing (worst) funds of last year continue to perform well (worst) in the following year. Design/methodology/approach Capital Asset Pricing Model and Carhart four-factor model are used for performance analysis, whereas for analyzing market timing ability, the Treynor and Mazuy (1966) and Henriksson and Merton (1981) models are applied. To investigate persistence in the performance of Chinese equity funds, all equity funds are divided, on the basis of performance in the past 12 months, into three equally weighted groups (high, middle and low) and then observed for next 12 months. After that, groups are again rebalanced according to their performance. This study uses a panel regression model for analysis. Findings Chinese equity funds are successful in providing higher than market returns, and fund managers possess positive market timing ability. The authors find that Chinese equity funds do not show persistence in performance as witnessed in developed markets. Well-performing funds (worst funds) of last year do not continue to provide higher (lower) return in the following year. Moreover, the authors detect positive relationship of fund size, age and expense ratio with the fund’s performance. Overall results suggest that emerging market equity funds show better performance than that of developed markets. Practical implications Investors are better off if they invest in equity funds instead of index funds, as results illustrate that equity funds outperformed the market. Further, the strategy of buying well-performing funds of last year and selling poorly performing funds of last year does not look very attractive in China. This study helps investors to understand the Chinese managed funds industry, and such an understanding is also helpful for fund managers and asset management companies who use performance information in marketing strategies. Originality/value This is the first study to investigate the performance persistence in Chinese equity funds and also contributes to the literature about the performance and market timing ability of equity funds. The study takes the sample of 520 equity funds for the period from 2004 to 2014, which includes a period of financial crisis of 2008.

scholarly journals MANAGERIAL ABILITIES AND FACTOR INVESTMENT STYLE PERFORMANCES OF MALAYSIAN MUTUAL FUND MANAGERS

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 118-135
Author(s):  
Pick-Soon Ling ◽  
Ruzita Abdul-Rahim
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Investment Style ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Stock Picking

Background and Purpose: Studies focusing on mutual fund managerial abilities and investment style strategies are still scarce in the literature. Thus, this study aims to provide new evidence and insights into the managerial abilities and investment style performances of Malaysian fund managers.   Methodology: A total of 444 Malaysian equity mutual funds (EMFs) were evaluated using Carhart’s model incorporated with Treynor-Mazuy (T-M) and Henriksson-Merton (H-M) market timing models for the study period, from January 1995 to December 2017.   Findings: Fund managers displayed superior stock selection skills with 32 percent and 43 percent of funds for T-M and H-M respectively, with perverse market timing ability which accounted for 39 percent and 42 percent of funds for T-M and H-M respectively. Perverse timing ability had reduced the superior stock-picking skills of fund managers. This suggests that the EMFs performance could further improve if respective fund managers perform better in market timing ability. The finding also indicates that size effect (SMB) and value effect (HML) play significant roles in investment style strategies, while results of momentum factor (WML) propose that Malaysian fund managers have followed the contrarian strategy.   Contributions: This study contributes in several ways especially in the literature of portfolio management as the evidence is obtained from the largest mutual funds sample size and the longest study period. Moreover, this study also used the highest frequency data to study the effects of market timing which were overlooked in previous studies.   Keywords: Adjusted carhart, Malaysian market, market timing, mutual fund, stock selection.   Cite as: Ling, P-S., & Abdul-Rahim, R. (2021). Managerial abilities and factor investment style performances of Malaysian mutual funds.  Journal of Nusantara Studies, 6(1), 118-135. http://dx.doi.org/10.24200/jonus.vol6iss1pp118-135

Evaluating alternative performance benchmarks for Indian mutual fund industry

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjay Sehgal ◽  
Sonal Babbar
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Five Factor Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Asset Pricing Models ◽  
Performance Benchmarks ◽  
Fama And French

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to perform a relative assessment of performance benchmarks based on alternative asset pricing models to evaluate performance of mutual funds and suggest the best approach in Indian context. Design/methodology/approach Sample of 237 open-ended Indian equity (growth) schemes from April 2003 to March 2013 is used. Both unconditional and conditional versions of eight performance models are employed, namely, Jensen (1968) measure, three-moment asset pricing model, four-moment asset pricing model, Fama and French (1993) three-factor model, Carhart (1997) four-factor model, Elton et al. (1999) five-index model, Fama and French (2015) five-factor model and firm quality five-factor model. Findings Conditional version of Carhart (1997) model is found to be the most appropriate performance benchmark in the Indian context. Success of conditional models over unconditional models highlights that fund managers dynamically manage their portfolios. Practical implications A significant α generated over and above the return estimated using Carhart’s (1997) model reflects true stock-picking skills of fund managers and it is, therefore, worth paying an active management fee. Stock exchanges and credit rating agencies in India should construct indices incorporating size, value and momentum factors to be used for purpose of benchmarking. Originality/value The study adds new evidence as to applicability of established asset pricing models as performance benchmarks in emerging market India. It examines role of higher order moments in explaining mutual fund returns which is an under researched area.

Do Mutual Funds Perform When It Matters Most to Investors? US Mutual Fund Performance and Risk in Recessions and Expansions

2011 ◽  
Vol 01 (03) ◽  
pp. 607-664 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Kosowski
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Marginal Utility ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Fund Performance ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Switching Performance ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds

This paper shows that the stylized fact of average mutual fund underperformance documented in the literature stems from expansion periods when funds have statistically significant negative risk-adjusted performance and not recession periods when risk-adjusted fund performance is positive. These results imply that traditional unconditional performance measures understate the value added by active mutual fund managers in recessions, when investors' marginal utility of wealth is high. The risk-adjusted performance (or alpha) difference between recession and expansion periods is statistically and economically significant at 3% to 5% per year. Our findings are based on a novel multi-variate conditional regime-switching performance methodology used to carry out one of the most comprehensive examinations of the performance of US domestic equity mutual funds in recessions and expansions from 1962 to 2005. The findings are robust to the choice of the factor model (including bond and liquidity factor extensions), the use of NBER business cycle dates, fund load, turnover, expenses and percentage of equity holdings.

scholarly journals Funds Manager and Mutual Funds Characteristics on Mutual Funds Performance: Empirical Evidence of Equity Mutual Funds in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 77
Author(s):  
Rina Rachmawati ◽  
Sugeng Wahyudi ◽  
Irene Rini Demi Pangestuti ◽  
Najmudin .
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Fund Management ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Positive Effect

This study examines the effect of investment fund managers' characteristics in the form of tenure, and mutual fund characteristics with proxy turnover portfolios, market timing and stock selectivity on the performance of stock mutual funds. The research sample is 27 stock mutual funds in Indonesia that were active from 2013 to 2017. On the analysis of the relationships between the characteristics of investment managers and mutual funds characteristics on the performance of stock mutual funds, a series of OLS regressions were run. The panel data regression was included based on using the Eviews. All of the above were aimed at achieving portfolio optimization and realizing the maximization of the interests for fund management companies and investors. The main findings are as follows. Tenure does not affect the performance of stock mutual funds during the years 2013 to 2017, but if divided into 2 quadrants of tenure, namely tenure over 19 years and tenure under 19 years of work, the result is that tenure over 19 years has a positive effect on the performance of stock mutual funds, but tenure brought 19 years has no effect on the performance of equity funds, whereas mutual funds characteristics, which are proxied by portfolio turnover, market timing and stock selectivity, have a significant positive effect on the performance of equity funds in Indonesia. The primary limitation in the scope is the sample, because stock mutual funds that publish consistently Financial statements between 2013 and 2017 are few in number. These findings have important implications for fund management companies as input material that the investment strategy of the investment management team affects the performance of equity funds compared to the characteristics of investment managers with proxies for years of service. This paper proposes a new perspective to evaluate the relationship between the fund manager and mutual funds characteristicsanddivide 2 groups of working years, and calculate them with non-linear models.

scholarly journals Market Timing and Selectivity: An Empirical Investigation of European Mutual Fund Performance

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luís Oliveira ◽  
Tomás Salen ◽  
José Dias Curto ◽  
Nuno Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Fund Performance ◽  
Active Management ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds ◽  
Overall Performance ◽  
European Equity

Using the models proposed by (Treynor & Mazuy, 1966; Henriksson & Merton, 1981), the present study examines the selection and timing abilities of mutual fund managers to denote the practice of these strategies as a means to achieve superior performance. For the 163 European equity mutual funds that followed active management strategies between January 2000 and December 2016, there was no evidence that fund managers used market timing abilities to anticipate the market movements. However, the selectivity component of returns presents slightly positive results, despite the poor overall performance.

Reexamining fund manager skill from a new angle

2016 ◽  
Vol 42 (8) ◽  
pp. 746-762
Author(s):  
Qiang Bu ◽  
Nelson Lacey
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Manager Skill ◽  
Robustness Check

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine managerial skill of US equity mutual funds in the context of both abnormal return and risk. Design/methodology/approach – The authors evaluate manager skill based on the outperforming probability and cumulative distribution function of the actual funds and the bootstrapped funds. And the authors recognize the role of fund life cycle and use different evaluation horizons to control for fund age and the overall state of the market. Findings – The authors find that a small percentage of equity funds can beat the market, and the percentage is overall higher than what the control group would predict. The authors find no evidence of persistence. The authors also document that the chance of underperformance is much higher than what the authors had expect from the control group. Taking the risk-return tradeoff into account, any performance advantage of actual funds over bootstrapped funds is correlated with tail risk, and a robustness check confirms this finding. Originality/value – The authors find that the outperforming probability itself is not enough to confirm the existence of manager skill. The complete story of mutual fund alpha, should it exist, would not be complete without incorporating both risk and luck.

Impact of economic and market factors on the market liquidity timing ability of mutual fund managers in Turkey

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hale Yalcin ◽  
Sema Dube
Keyword(s):  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Interaction Terms ◽  
Data Analyses ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Market Factors

PurposeThe authors examine whether Turkish fund managers employ liquidity timing along with market return timing, and if additional economic and market factors could affect their timing abilities, to help explain the contradictory results in literature vis-a-vis market timing ability.Design/methodology/approachThe authors apply panel data analyses, with interaction terms and incorporating structural breaks, to monthly data for 96 out of 131 Turkish variable mutual funds which have available data for the sample period of 2011–2018. The authors employ the Amihud (2002) illiquidity measure to study market liquidity timing ability along with how additional economic and market factors affect this ability.FindingsThe authors find liquidity timing to be the performance enhancing method employed by Turkish variable fund managers in conjunction with market timing and that evidence for market timing may depend on whether structural breaks, that may be present in returns, are incorporated in the analysis. The authors also find that economic, technology and market-related factors affect timing abilities of fund managers.Research limitations/implicationsConclusions are for Turkey, for the sample period studied, and for the control factors selected based on literature.Practical implicationsIt is important to understand the role of market liquidity in making investment decisions and the paper contributes toward an understanding of how managers design their timing strategies in order to enhance portfolio performance, as well as the impact of additional factors on their ability to time market returns and liquidity. This is also important for evaluating fund managers' performance in terms of contribution to portfolio value.Originality/valueTo the authors knowledge this is the first study on Turkish markets to employ liquidity timing in the context of panel data analyses using interaction terms, as well as structural breaks, to distinguish the extent of liquidity timing from return timing, while incorporating the effect of additional factors on timing ability.

scholarly journals An Empirical Investigation of the Performance of Fund Managers in Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-68
Author(s):  
Sanaullah Sanaullah ◽  
Amna Noor ◽  
Salleh Khan ◽  
Muhammad Shahbaz Khan
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Performance Study ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Mutual Fund Managers ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Manager Performance

This study aims to determine the stock selection ability and market timing ability of mutual fund managers, focusing on conventional funds and Islamic funds in Pakistan.  Although there has been significant growth in the number and assets of mutual funds in recent years, few studies measure the performance of mutual funds managers. The scarcity of existing literature motivates this study. In this study, two models are used to measure the stock selection and market timing on a sample of conventional mutual funds and Islamic mutual funds over 2010 and 2019 using annual returns. Overall, the results indicate that the performance study of conventional mutual funds and Islamic mutual funds indicates that manager performance is not superior in all three portfolios, i.e., conventional funds, Islamic funds, and overall funds in over sample period. This also indicates that both Conventional and Islamic fund managers do not outperform the market (KSE 100 index). Thus, there is a lack of market timing ability. Using Tranoy and mazuy and Jansen models found a lack of stock selection and market timing ability of mutual fund managers in Pakistani mutual funds. In this study, I have applied only two models to examine both the timing and selection ability of conventional and Islamic Pakistani equity funds. For future possibilities, the study suggests adopting several methods and approaches like the TMFF3 model and HM-FF3 model, making the study more comprehensive and accurate than this research.

scholarly journals Mutual Fund Performance: Evidence From South Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 49-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ömer Faruk Tan
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
South African ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Equity Funds

This paper aims to evaluate the performance of South African equity funds between January 2009 and November 2014. This study period overlaps with the study period of quantitative easing during which developing economies in financial markets have been influenced severely. Thanks to the increase in the money supply directed towards the capital markets, a relief was experienced in related markets following the crisis period. During this 5-year 10-month period, in which the relevant quantitative easing continued, Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) yielded approximately %16 compounded on average, per year. In this study, South African equity funds are examined in order to compare these funds' performance within this period.Within this scope- 10 South African equity funds are selected. In order to measure these funds' performances, the Sharpe ratio (1966), Treynor ratio (1965), Jensen's alpha (1968) methods are used. Jensen's alpha is also used in identifying selectivity skills of fund managers. Furthermore, the Treynor & Mazuy (1966) and Henriksson & Merton (1981) regression analysis methods are applied to ascertain the market timing ability of fund managers. Furthermore, Treynor & Mazuy (1966) regression analysis method is applied for market timing ability of fund managers.

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