Analysis of global economic policy uncertainty and export flows for emerging markets with panel VAR modeling

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Çağlayan Aslan ◽  
Senay Acikgoz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Real ◽  
Export Flows

PurposeThe purpose of this paper to examine how global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) affects export flows of emerging market economies.Design/methodology/approachThis study examines the effect of GEPU on 28 emerging markets' export performance. GEPU variable used in the authors’ empirical analysis is measured by partial least square (PLS) factor loading model with the help of 24 countries' economic policy uncertainty index. A panel vector autoregression (VAR) model is employed for the estimations and monthly data over the 2006:01–2019:12 period are used.FindingsThe empirical findings show that while the real external income is the main factor that affects export flows, the real exchange rate is the least effective variable with regard to the variance decomposition, which is not expected by the related economic theory. Panel VAR estimations results confirm the previous studies and find that GEPU affects export flows negatively and significantly.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the sole study in terms of focusing on the impacts of GEPU on the export volume of emerging markets. The contribution of this paper is twofold. Firstly, a large set of countries with monthly frequented data that assist to capture uncertainties better is used. Secondly, the global economic policy index is obtained by employing the PLS method, which provides more robust results that are calculated with respect to the dependent variable.

Economic policy uncertainty and stock market liquidity

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 112-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Byomakesh Debata ◽  
Jitendra Mahakud
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Stock Market Liquidity

Purpose This study aims to examine the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and stock market liquidity in an order-driven emerging stock market. Design/methodology/approach Empirical estimates are based on vector autoregressive Granger-causality tests, impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis. Findings The empirical findings suggest that economic policy uncertainty moderately influences stock market liquidity during normal market conditions. However, the role of economic policy uncertainty for determining stock market liquidity is significant in times of financial crises. The authors have also observed a significant portion of variation in stock market liquidity that is attributed to investor sentiments during financial crises. Originality/value This study is original in nature and provides evidence to consider economic policy uncertainty as a possible source of commonality in liquidity in the context of an emerging market.

Economic policy uncertainty and stock liquidity: the role of board networks in an emerging market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
William Mbanyele
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Adverse Effects ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Stock Liquidity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Board Networks

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the role of board networks in promoting stock liquidity when there is high economic policy uncertainty using a sample of Brazilian firms from 2002 to 2015.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs the ordinary least squares estimation method with standard errors clustered at the firm level for preliminary analysis, besides the study employs the two-step GMM dynamic estimation method to deal with potential endogeneity issues.FindingsFirst, the findings show that economic policy uncertainty disproportionately contributes to stock illiquidity and the impact is mainly prominent for high risky companies, small firms and firms in competitive industries. Second, the author provides evidence that board networks promote stock liquidity more via the information channel when economic policy uncertainty is very high.Practical implicationsGiven the adverse effects of economic policy uncertainty on stock liquidity, governments need to swiftly communicate and implement policies that affect the capital market to avoid the drying up of liquidity, which is exacerbated by communication or implementation lags. Also, there is a need for the regulators to continuously encourage the inclusion of independent directors in boards, which helps to increase board monitoring capacity and the firms' ability to respond to changes in the external environment.Originality/valueUnlike other studies that focus on the adverse effects of economic policy uncertainty on firm outcomes, the novel contribution is that the author uncovers the role of board networks in mitigating the negative effects of economic policy uncertainty on stock liquidity.

Momentum return volatility, uncertainty, and energy prices: evidence from major international equity markets

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 411-433
Author(s):  
Spyros Spyrou
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper examines the impact of macroeconomic and risk factors on the profitability and volatility of professional momentum portfolios for the US, the UK, Japan and Germany, for the period 1998–2018. Many of the factors employed, such as energy price changes and economic policy uncertainty, have been largely neglected in the relevant literature.Design/methodology/approachRegression analysis, VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION (VAR), Panel-VAR, Variance Decomposition AnalysisFindingsThe results indicate that, since the financial crises in the US and the EU, energy prices and economic-policy uncertainty have become important return determinants, along with market-related uncertainty that seems to have a stable impact over time, especially for the U.S. and U.K. portfolios.Research limitations/implicationsEconomic policy uncertainty significantly affects contemporaneous momentum returns in the US, UK and Japan, mainly between 2007 and 2018, while market-related uncertainty affects all markets during all subperiods. In addition, the variance of market-related uncertainty (VIX) explains a large percentage of the variance in the momentum returns for the US, UK and Germany.Practical implicationsThe main implication of the findings for portfolio managers is that a manager may increase (decrease) exposure to the momentum factor during optimistic (pessimistic) periods and during periods of rising energy prices (high economic policy and market-related uncertainty).Originality/valueThe paper examines the impact of factors, such as energy prices and economic policy uncertainty, which have been largely neglected in the relevant literature on the possible drivers of the momentum strategies. It employs professional portfolios that are often used in practice as benchmark indexes.

Geopolitical risk, economic growth, economic uncertainty and international inbound tourism: an Indian Illustration

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudeshna Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Geopolitical Risks

Purpose This paper aims to consider the role of geopolitical risk in explaining tourism demand in India, a major tourist destination of the Asian region. Furthermore, the study also considers how in addition to geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, economic growth, exchange rate, inflation and trade openness impact tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach The Bayer and Hanck (2013) method of cointegration is applied to explore the relationship between geopolitical risk and tourism demand. Furthermore, the study has also used the auto distributed lag model to determine whether there is a long-run cointegrating association between tourism demand, geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, economic growth, exchange rate and trade openness. Finally, the vector error correction model confirms the direction of causality across the set of the major variables. Findings This paper finds that geopolitical risk adversely impacts inbound international travel to India. This study also obtains the consistency of the results across different estimation techniques controlling for important macro variables. The Granger causality test confirms the unidirectional causality from geopolitical risk to tourism and further from economic uncertainty to tourism. The findings from the study confirm that geopolitical risks have long-term repercussions on the tourism sector in India. The results indicate that there is an urgent need to develop a pre-crisis management plan to protect the aura of Indian tourism. The tourism business houses should develop skilful marketing strategies in the post-crisis to boost the confidence of the tourists. Research limitations/implications This paper provides valuable practical implications to tourism business houses. The tourism business houses can explore geopolitical risk measure and economic policy uncertainty measure to analyse the demand for international tourism in India. Further, the major stakeholders can establish platforms to help tourists to overcome the fear associated with geopolitical risk. Originality/value This study is the first of its kind to explore the geopolitical risks and their long-run consequences in the context of tourism in India. The study puts emphasis on the role of national policy to maintain peace otherwise it would be detrimental to tourism.

Economic policy uncertainty and stock prices in BRIC countries: evidence from asymmetric frequency domain causality approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mucahit Aydin ◽  
Ugur Korkut Pata ◽  
Veysel Inal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Frequency Domain ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Bric Countries ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Asymmetric Causality

Purpose The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and stock prices during the period from March 2003 to March 2021. Design/methodology/approach The study uses asymmetric and symmetric frequency domain causality tests and focuses on BRIC countries, namely, Brazil, Russia, India and China. Findings The findings of the symmetric causality test confirm unidirectional permanent causality from EPU to stock prices for Brazil and India and bidirectional causality for China. However, according to the asymmetric causality test, the findings for China show that there is no causality between the variables. The results for Brazil and India indicate that there is unidirectional permanent causality from positive components of EPU to positive components of stock prices. Moreover, for Brazil, there is unidirectional temporary causality from the negative components of EPU to the negative components of stock prices. For India, there is temporary causality in the opposite direction. Originality/value The reactions of financial markets to positive and negative shocks differ. In this context, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first attempt to examine the causal relationships between stock prices and uncertainty using an asymmetric frequency domain approach. Thus, the study enables the analysis of the effects of positive and negative shocks in the stock market separately.

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