INNOVATIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SYSTEM OF FOREIGN ECONOMIC SECURITY OF THE COUNTRY

Background. One of the main indicators of the country's economic development is its trade balance, in particular the total size and value of products that the country can adequately represent in foreign markets, ensuring reliable cash flow, balanced development of economic sectors, and, consequently, growing greatness and prosperity. In modern conditions, ensuring such a global export expansion of Ukrainian products to foreign markets, in particular European ones, is impossible without proper innovation of producers and exporters, as well as sufficient investment in planned innovation projects, which requires in-depth economic analysis and strategy in this direction. Using the latest scientific inventions and research. The aim of the article is to study and analyze the current state of Ukrainian exports to world and European markets and substantiate the possibility of differentiation of export flows in order to evenly distribute the share of exports between all industries, including engineering and high technology, etc. and move away from raw materials Materials and methods. The theoretical and methodological basis of the article is the scientific works of Ukrainian and foreign scientists on the problems of innovation development. Results. As we can see from the researched data, during the last decade there is a tendency of prevalence in the general structure of the country's exports of ferrous metallurgy and mining, which is primarily due to the strong potential of these industries inherited from Soviet times, as well as agro-industrial products. in particular, cereals and oils, which is explained by the tradition of these industries for the economy of Ukraine, and established under the Association Agreement tariff quotas for Ukrainian agricultural products in the markets of the European Union. Revolutionary tasks have been set to reduce the share in the structure of exports of these types of goods first to the critical limit of 10%, and then to the target of 5%, while maintaining and even increasing the absolute monetary value of exports of these goods, which is possible only if increasing exports by other product groups, identifying priority areas among such products while legislative incentives and creating a regulatory environment to strengthen the ability of domestic enterprises to compete in world markets, especially in the face of growing protectionism in response to the challenges of the pandemic. Conclusion. Summing up, we can conclude that Ukraine has created all the prerequisites for the implementation and implementation of all short-term and strategic plans for the domestic economy and a worthy place among participants in both European and global markets, subject to improving the scientific and educational system of industrial development, wider implementation of innovation processes, as well as the implementation of plans to diversify export flows.

THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF ANALYSIS OF EXPORT OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

The article is devoted to the study of theoretical and methodological aspects of the analysis of exports of goods and services in the context of regional development. The structural and logical scheme of the analysis of export of goods and services is of-fered. Export of the Kharkiv region was assessed by geographical structure, by goods and by countries. In general, the geograph-ical structure of export Kharkiv region shows a reorientation of commodities to EU countries. The export of services of the Kharkiv region by geographical structure and by types of economic activity is analyzed. Kharkiv region has a developed and diversified economy. There are large enterprises of mechanical engineering, agricultural and food industries, energy, developed oil and gas complex in the region. The geopolitical situation, as well as the crisis caused by the COVID­19 pandemic, have significantly con-tributed to changes in the directions and instruments of the region's foreign policy. Based on this, it is possible to determine the objectives of the study, which is to analyze and evaluate the exports of the Kharkiv region in order to determine priorities to ensure its competitiveness. It is determined that the export of services of the Kharkiv region is dominated by services and computer services. To ensure the efficiency of exports of services, it is necessary to pursue a policy of increasing their volume by expand-ing the volume of other activities, such as education, tourism and others. A SWOT­analysis of exports of the Kharkiv region was conducted. The risks of slowing down export flows and strategic directions for improving the export activity of the Kharkiv region have been identified.Kharkiv region has enough competitive advantages in the development of export of commodities: natural resource potential, high quality and competitiveness of food industry and mechanical engineering, diversification of export flows by country, adaptation to European standards and quality requirements. Foreign economic entities are the most efficient part of business, and therefore deregulation and tax leverages are an important incentive to ensure favorable conditions for export flows. Given the high intellectual capital of the region, it is important to support the development of innovation through attracting investment in research and development, the introduction of public funding. Innovative products and services will help improve he position of the region and the country at the global level and ensure the growth of exports. The imperfection of the institutional framework in the innovation sphere also affects Ukraine's ratings in the internationally competitive environment. Regulatory policy in the context of the region's exports should be comprehensive and balanced using determined instruments.Keywords: export, regional development, Kharkiv region, export of goods, export of services, SWOT­analysis, export potential. Статтю присвячено дослідженню теоретико­методичних аспектів аналізу експорту товарів і послуг у контексті регіонального розвитку. Запропоновано структурно­логічну схему аналізу експорту товарів і послуг. Проведено аналіз експорту Харківського регіону за географічною структурою, за товарами та за країнами. У цілому географічна структура експорту України показує переорієнтацію поставок до країн ЄС. Проаналізовано експорт послуг Харківської області за географічною структурою та за видами економічної діяльності. Визначено, що в експорті послуг Харківської області домінують консалтингові та комп'ютерні послуги. Для забезпечення ефективності експорту послуг необхідно проводити політику щодо збільшення їхніх обсягів шляхом розширення обсягів за іншими видами діяльності, такими як освітні, туристичні та ін. Проведено SWOT­аналіз експортного потенціалу Харківського регіону. Визначено ризики гальмування експортних потоків та стратегічні напрями поліпшення експортної діяльності в Харківській області. Ключові слова: експорт, регіональний розвиток, Харківська область, експорт товарів, експорт послуг, SWOT­аналіз, експортний потенціал.

Analysis of global economic policy uncertainty and export flows for emerging markets with panel VAR modeling

PurposeThe purpose of this paper to examine how global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) affects export flows of emerging market economies.Design/methodology/approachThis study examines the effect of GEPU on 28 emerging markets' export performance. GEPU variable used in the authors’ empirical analysis is measured by partial least square (PLS) factor loading model with the help of 24 countries' economic policy uncertainty index. A panel vector autoregression (VAR) model is employed for the estimations and monthly data over the 2006:01–2019:12 period are used.FindingsThe empirical findings show that while the real external income is the main factor that affects export flows, the real exchange rate is the least effective variable with regard to the variance decomposition, which is not expected by the related economic theory. Panel VAR estimations results confirm the previous studies and find that GEPU affects export flows negatively and significantly.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the sole study in terms of focusing on the impacts of GEPU on the export volume of emerging markets. The contribution of this paper is twofold. Firstly, a large set of countries with monthly frequented data that assist to capture uncertainties better is used. Secondly, the global economic policy index is obtained by employing the PLS method, which provides more robust results that are calculated with respect to the dependent variable.

Nigeria’s cocoa exports: a gravity model approach

ABSTRACT: What are the major factors affecting Nigeria’s cocoa export flows? In answering this question, the authors suggest a commodity-specific gravity model with three different analytical approaches, (the Heckman Sample Selection Model, the Generalised Least Square, and the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood), based on a period of 24 years of panel data for Nigeria and it’s 36 importing partners to estimate the models. The results showed that GDP, exchange rate policy, WTO, EU, and colonial link are positively associated with the Nigerian cocoa export flows. Further, the negative impact of the GDP per capita, landlocked, distance, AU, and ECOWAS are observed. The need for the expansion of exports to the trading partners, especially the EU members (Netherlands, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Belgium, Spain, etc.), Canada, Malaysia, and the USA is particularly highlighted. These results are important for the formulation of future trade policy that could boost up the Nigerian cocoa exports. This would eventually contribute to the diversification of the Nigerian exports and also enhance the country’s foreign earnings.

Assessing the Impact of International Sanctions on Russian Economy Sectors Using Network Modeling

This study presents the results of the economic modeling of commodity export flows from the Russian Federation in 2012–2016.Aim. The study aims to assess the direct and indirect effects of the US and European sanctions on export flows from Russia.Tasks. The authors collect the necessary data and carry out modeling using modern analysis methods to obtain a complete picture of the effects of sanctions on Russia, including a quantitative assessment of these effects.Methods. The modeling is based on network analysis, which was selected after consulting a wide range of scientific works and examining possible alternative methodological approaches to the problem under consideration.Results. The authors successfully complete network modeling for the major export commodity groups of the Russian Federation: aluminum, gas, and oil (including crude oil); formulate and test the hypothesis of Russia’s changing role in international trade as a result of sanctions; summarize the results of the model calculations of the aggregate effects of sanctions pressure on the export of the major commodity groups from Russia.Conclusion. In general, sanctions pressure has an obvious negative impact on the Russian economy, but the timeframe and scope of this impact are not up to the original estimates of the US and the European countries that introduced these sanctions.