On the relation between purchasing manager’s index and trade policy uncertainty: evidence from China, Japan and the USA

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Imlak Shaikh
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uncertainty Index ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Trade Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose Trade uncertainty does influence the firm’s new investment, profitability and supply chain finance. Consequently, it results in decreased consumption and low consumer confidence and eventually disrupts global economic activity. This paper aims to propose a model to uncover the effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the real economic activity and economy’s health measured in terms of the purchasing manager’s index (PMI). Design/methodology/approach This study uses the PMI, trade policy uncertainty index, economic policy uncertainty index and short-term interest rate. The relation between economic activity and uncertainty was studied using nested regression and vector autoregressive model. Findings The empirical results show that PMI of China and Japan were more responsive to the TPU of the USA and remained more fluctuating during the year 2018–2019. Importantly, this paper notices that the US’s PMI reached a low historically subject to its own trade policy and tension with China. Overall, TPU has shown more pronounced effects on PMI across China, Japan and the USA, followed by important economic and political events and major trade tariff uncertainty deals. Practical implications The empirical outcome holds some practical implications trade uncertainty affects not only the economic health of the economy but also market participants, global investors and international political environment, recent trade barriers, tariff wars and ambiguity raise question about free and fair global trade and competitiveness of the member country of the world trade organization. Originality/value The work is a novel that attempts to explain economic activity and supply chain through PMI. Unlike conventional economic indicators, e.g. gross domestic product, producer price index, consumer price index, employment, etc. PMI measures manufacturing industries’ overall status concerning the number of orders, inventory levels, productions, supplier deliveries and employment.

The USA–China trade policy uncertainty and inference for the major global south indexes

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saffet Akdag ◽  
Hakan Yildirim ◽  
Andrew Adewale Alola
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Uncertainty Index ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Market Indexes ◽  
Trade Policy Uncertainty

PurposeThe recent dynamics of trade policy, especially that is associated with the United States of America (USA) and China, has not only triggered policy adjustments in two economies, it has also implied an uncertainty spillover to other economies across the globe. Consequently, the current study attempts to examine the effect of uncertainties in the USA–China trade policies on stock market indexes. In addition, the cointegration evidence between the USA–China trade policy uncertainty index and of the leading Global South fragile quintet (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India and Turkey) stock market indices is investigated.Design/methodology/approachMainly, the FMOLS and DOLS Granger causality analysis with cointegration coefficient estimators were employed for the dataset over the monthly data period of March 2003 and July 2019.FindingsAccordingly, the study found a long-term relationship between the USA–China Trade Policy Uncertainty index and the stock exchange indexes. In addition, a causal relationship was established from the change in the USA–China Trade Policy Uncertainty index to the change in the stock market indexes of almost all of the examined countries (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India and Turkey). In addition, the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach further offers evidence of asymmetric relationship among the examined indicators.Originality/valueMoreover, this study contributed to the existing literature because it employed the indexes of BIST100, BOVESPA, BSE Sensex 30, IDX Composite and South Africa 40 in a novel approach. Thus, the study posited a useful policy guideline for associated economic uncertainties arising from the trade dispute, such as the case of the world’s two largest trading giants or partners (i.e. the USA and China).

Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Global Economic Activity?

FEDS Notes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (2445) ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Dario Caldara ◽  
Matteo Iacoviello ◽  
Patrick Molligo ◽  
Andrea Prestipino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Trade Policy Uncertainty

scholarly journals Assessing the impacts of global economic policy uncertainty and the long-term bond yields on oil prices

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oguzhan Ozcelebi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Might the impact of the global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and the long-term bond yields on oil prices be asymmetric? This paper aims to consider the effects of the GEPU and the US long-term government bond yields on oil prices using quantile-based analysis and nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) model. The author hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the GEPU and the long-term bond yields of the USA have different effects on oil prices. Design/methodology/approach To address this question, the author uses quantile cointegration model and the impulse response functions (IRFs) of the censored variable approach of Kilian and Vigfusson (2011). Findings The quantile cointegration test showed the existence of non-linear cointegration relationship, whereas Granger-causality analysis revealed that positive/negative variations in GEPU will have opposite effects on oil prices. This result was supported by the quantile regression model’s coefficients and nonlinear VAR model’s IRFs; more specifically, it was stressed that increasing/decreasing GEPU will deaccelerate/accelerate global economic activity and thus lead to a fall/rise in oil prices. On the other hand, the empirical models indicated that the impact of US 10-year government bond yields on oil prices is asymmetrical, while it was found that deterioration in the borrowing conditions in the USA may have an impact on oil prices by slowing down the global economic activity. Originality/value As a robustness check of the quantile-based analysis results, the slope-based Mork test is used.

The US-China trade war with increasing trade policy uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-94
Author(s):  
Serdar Ongan ◽  
Ismet Gocer
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bilateral Trade Balance ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Trade Policy Uncertainty

Purpose This study aims to examine the impacts of changing US trade policy uncertainty (henceforth, TPU Index) on US bilateral trade balance with China from a nonlinear methodology perspective. Design/methodology/approach The nonlinear auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, recently developed by Shin et al. (2014), is applied. This model decomposes the TPU Index series into its increases (TPU+) and decreases (TPU−) and creates two new TPU Index series. Findings Empirical findings indicate that increases in the TPU Index improve the US bilateral trade balance only in the short-run (no long-run impact). However, decreases in the TPU Index worsen the US trade balance in the short run but improve it in the long run. Apart from these effects detected on US–China bilateral trade balances, this empirical study draws the conclusion that changing trade policy uncertainty plays a significant determining role for bilateral trade volumes. Originality/value Decomposed TPU index with the nonlinear ARDL model enables us to examine the separate impacts of the changes in TPU+ and TPU− indexes on US bilateral trade balance with China. Therefore, this model may discover potentially concealed-hidden true impacts of TPU index on US bilateral trade balance with this country.

School performance trajectories and the challenges for principal succession

2015 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 262-286 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda C. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Elementary School Principals ◽  
Transformational Change ◽  
Urban School District ◽  
New Principals ◽  
New Schools ◽  
Principal Succession ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Principal ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to use empirical data on new principals to clarify the connection between different succession situations and the challenges their successor principals face. Design/methodology/approach – The study draws on two waves of interview data from a random sample of 16 new elementary school principals in a major urban school district in the USA. Findings – New principals face distinct practice challenges depending on the nature of their successions. The less planned the succession, the less information and knowledge the new principal tends to possess. The more discontinuous the new administration’s trajectory is with the previous administration, the greater the staff resistance that the successor principal tends to face. Research limitations/implications – Few studies systematically examine how succession situations differ in schools that are in need of transformation vs those in need of stability. This study addresses this gap by illuminating the varied processes of succession and highlighting specific mechanisms that link these processes to different organizational trajectories. Practical implications – For district officials, this study suggests that principals in unplanned successions need greater support in quickly gathering information about their new schools while principals in discontinuous successions need greater expertise in how to balance trust-building and accountability in their attempts to promote transformational change. Originality/value – This study’s primary value is its detailed articulation of how certain characteristics of succession situations are associated with specific types of challenges. Only studies at this level of specificity can be effective guides to practitioners and policymakers who are charged with preparing, selecting, and supporting new principals and their schools.

Fusion based learning approach for predicting concrete pouring productivity based on construction and supply parameters

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 185-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mojtaba Maghrebi ◽  
Ali Shamsoddini ◽  
S. Travis Waller
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Production Rate ◽  
Learning Method ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Field Database ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Stable Learning ◽  
Ready Mixed Concrete ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to predict the concrete pouring production rate by considering both construction and supply parameters, and by using a more stable learning method. Design/methodology/approach Unlike similar approaches, this paper considers not only construction site parameters, but also supply chain parameters. Machine learner fusion-regression (MLF-R) is used to predict the production rate of concrete pouring tasks. Findings MLF-R is used on a field database including 2,600 deliveries to 507 different locations. The proposed data set and the results are compared with ANN-Gaussian, ANN-Sigmoid and Adaboost.R2 (ANN-Gaussian). The results show better performance of MLF-R obtaining the least root mean square error (RMSE) compared with other methods. Moreover, the RMSEs derived from the predictions by MLF-R in some trials had the least standard deviation, indicating the stability of this approach among similar used approaches. Practical implications The size of the database used in this study is much larger than the size of databases used in previous studies. It helps authors draw their conclusions more confidently and introduce more generalised models that can be used in the ready-mixed concrete industry. Originality/value Introducing a more stable learning method for predicting the concrete pouring production rate helps not only construction parameters, but also traffic and supply chain parameters.

scholarly journals Implications of divergences in adult protection legislation

2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 149-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorna Montgomery ◽  
Janet Anand ◽  
Kathryn Mackay ◽  
Brian Taylor ◽  
Katherine C. Pearson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Elder Abuse ◽  
Consensus Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Responses ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Protection Legislation ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Adult Protection

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the similarities and differences of legal responses to older adults who may be at risk of harm or abuse in the UK, Ireland, Australia and the USA. Design/methodology/approach – The authors draw upon a review of elder abuse and adult protection undertaken on behalf of the commissioner for older people in Northern Ireland. This paper focusses on the desk top mapping of the different legal approaches and draws upon wider literature to frame the discussion of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the different legal responses. Findings – Arguments exist both for and against each legal approach. Differences in defining the scope and powers of adult protection legislation in the UK and internationally are highlighted. Research limitations/implications – This review was undertaken in late 2013; while the authors have updated the mapping to take account of subsequent changes, some statutory guidance is not yet available. While the expertise of a group of experienced professionals in the field of adult safeguarding was utilized, it was not feasible to employ a formal survey or consensus model. Practical implications – Some countries have already introduced APL and others are considering doing so. The potential advantages and challenges of introducing APL are highlighted. Social implications – The introduction of legislation may give professionals increased powers to prevent and reduce abuse of adults, but this would also change the dynamic of relationships within families and between families and professionals. Originality/value – This paper provides an accessible discussion of APL across the UK and internationally which to date has been lacking from the literature.

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