Identifying potential offenders on the basis of police records: development and validation of the ProKid risk assessment tool

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to describe the development and validation of the ProKid risk assessment tool, which was designed to enable Dutch police officers to identify youths with elevated risk of committing violent and/or property crimes. Design/methodology/approach The ProKid algorithms were based on the results of logistic regression analyses of police data from a sample of 31,769 adolescents in the former police regions “Amsterdam-Amstelland” and “Gelderland-Midden”. For the validation, logistic regression analyses were performed on police data of youths in the police region “Amsterdam-Amstelland” who had been in contact with the police in 2011 (n=39,977). Furthermore, receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed to assess the instrument’s accuracy. Findings Results indicated that higher ProKid risk categories were associated with greater odds of being registered as a suspect of either a violent or property offence. The instrument was found to have good predictive accuracy. Area under the curve values ranged from 0.83 to 0.84 for violent offences and from 0.82 to 0.83 for property offences. Practical implications The current study demonstrates that ProKid is a valid and accurate tool to be used by police officers to identify youths with elevated risk of future violent and property offending. The automated assessment procedure enables a quick screening of large numbers of both non-offenders and offenders. This study confirms the value of official police records for assessing the risk of future offending for preventive purposes. Originality/value The present study demonstrates the validity of a risk assessment tool based on Dutch police records for both non-offenders and offenders.

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Enterprise risk management and bow ties: going beyond patient safety

Business Process Management Journal ◽

10.1108/bpmj-03-2019-0102 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 26 (3) ◽

pp. 770-785

Author(s):

Hossam Elamir

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Risk Management ◽

Patient Safety ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Enterprise Risk Management ◽

Risk Assessment Tool ◽

Management Tool ◽

Content Type ◽

Enterprise Risk ◽

Bow Tie

Purpose The growing importance of risk management programmes and practices in different industries has given rise to a new risk management approach, i.e. enterprise risk management. The purpose of this paper is to better understand the necessity, benefit, approaches and methodologies of managing risks in healthcare. It compares and contrasts between the traditional and enterprise risk management approaches within the healthcare context. In addition, it introduces bow tie methodology, a prospective risk assessment tool proposed by the American Society for Healthcare Risk Management as a visual risk management tool used in enterprise risk management. Design/methodology/approach This is a critical review of published literature on the topics of governance, patient safety, risk management, enterprise risk management and bow tie, which aims to draw a link between them and find the benefits behind their adoption. Findings Enterprise risk management is a generic holistic approach that extends the benefits of risk management programme beyond the traditional insurable hazards and/or losses. In addition, the bow tie methodology is a barrier-based risk analysis and management tool used in enterprise risk management for critical events related to the relevant day-to-day operations. It is a visual risk assessment tool which is used in many higher reliability industries. Nevertheless, enterprise risk management and bow ties are reported with limited use in healthcare. Originality/value The paper suggests the applicability and usefulness of enterprise risk management to healthcare, and proposes the bow tie methodology as a proactive barrier-based risk management tool valid for enterprise risk management implementation in healthcare.

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