The existence of a stable money multiplier in the small open economy of Kazakhstan

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 1211-1223
Author(s):  
Razzaque Hamza Bhatti ◽  
Muhammad Junaid Khawaja
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Monetary Base ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Money Multiplier ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Credit View

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether a long-run stable money multiplier exists in Kazakhstan. It also investigates whether different episodes of currency shocks, including the financial crisis and recession of 2008–2010, have affected the working of the money multiplier in Kazakhstan. Design/methodology/approach The long-run multiplier is tested employing three cointegration tests: Engle–Granger (1987), Phillips–Ouliaris (1990) and Johansen and Juselius (1990). Findings The results of cointegration and coefficient restrictions tests are consistent with the money multiplier when broad money (M2 and M3) is used rather than when narrow money (M1) is used. The relationship between broad money and monetary base is structurally stable when examined on the basis of a dynamic (an error-correction) model. However, the M2 multiplier performs better than the M3 multiplier. Research limitations/implications This paper is restricted to testing a mechanistic version of the money multiplier and its stability using both narrow (M1) and broad money (M2 and M3) supplies. Thus, the paper focusses on the money view of the multiplier rather than the credit view of the multiplier. Practical implications One implication that emerges from the findings of this paper is that the National Bank of Kazakhstan can control M2 by controlling the monetary base, and hence the latter can serve as an indicator for monetary policy. Social implications The validity of the money multiplier implies that monetary policy can be conducted to control the money supply and the provision of bank credit to private sector to stabilize economic activity, thereby leading towards social stability in the economy as well. Originality/value In addition to offering a coherent survey of the literature on the standard money multiplier, this paper is a first attempt to find a stable money multiplier for Kazakhstan.

scholarly journals Does Monetary Policy Boost Economic Growth? The Case of Small Open Economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 216
Author(s):  
Javid Aliyev ◽  
Shahriyar Mukhtarov ◽  
Khanlar Haydarov ◽  
Murad Isgandarov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Policy Tools ◽  
Integration Methods ◽  
Monetary Base ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The main aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of monetary policy tools on economic growth in Azerbaijan during 2005-2018 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Also, different co-integration methods, namely, Johansen, DOLS, FMOLS and CCR were utilized for the robustness test. The outcomes of the different co-integration methods are consistent with one another and confirm the existence of long-run relationships among variables. Furthermore, the estimation results of VECM show that the monetary base and exchange rate have a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth in the long-run, while the discount rate is insignificant. The paper concludes that the monetary base and exchange rate should be promoted by policymakers over other monetary policy tools during monetary policy implementation toward stimulating economic growth.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Behaviour over the Long Run in a Small Open Economy: A Markov-Switching Vector Error-Correction Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 69
Author(s):  
Ronald Henry Lange
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Policy Regimes ◽  
Weighting Matrix ◽  
Stochastic Trends ◽  
Long Run

This study identifies a long-run equilibrium relationship among important information variables with stochastic trends for monetary policy in Canada. The variables serve as both target policy variables for the domestic macroeconomy and reaction variables to external economic disturbances. The parameters of the cointegrated vector of information variables are found to be quite stable. A Markov-switching cointegrated VAR model captures two stochastic policy regimes with low- and high-variances. The weighting matrix for the error-correction terms for both inflation and output are found to be relatively stable across regimes, while the monetary policy rate is found to exhibit asymmetric behavior with error-correction adjustment only in the current low-variance regime.

The response of macroeconomic aggregates to monetary policy shocks in Pakistan

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 314-330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Rashid ◽  
Zainab Jehan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Aggregates

Purpose – This paper aims to empirically examine how shocks to monetary policy measures (the short-term nominal interest rate and broad money supply) affect macroeconomic aggregates, namely, output growth of the economy, national price levels and the nominal exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach – Johansen’s (1995) cointegration technique and error correction models are used to explore the long-run relationship among variables. To investigate how macroeconomic aggregates respond to a one-standard deviation shock to the underlying monetary measures, the authors estimate impulse response functions based on error correction models. The study uses quarterly data covering the period 1980-2009. Findings – The results provide evidence that there is a long-run stable relationship between the authors' monetary measures and the underlying macroeconomic aggregates. They also find that the industrial production adjusts at a faster speed relative to commodity prices and the exchange rate over the examined period. Further, they show that the short-term interest rate has relatively stronger effects on output as compared to broad money supply, whereas prices and exchange rates adjust more quickly to their long-run equilibrium when money supply is used as a measure of monetary policy. Finally, the authors find significant evidence of a price puzzle regardless of whether they consider a closed or an open economy case. However, an initial appreciation of exchange rate is observed in response to a one-standard deviation shock to money supply, indicating the overshooting hypothesis phenomenon. Practical implications – The findings of the analysis suggest that the interest rate-oriented monetary policy is more effective when the monetary authorities’ objective is to enhance the output growth of the economy. However, in case of inflation targeting, the broad money supply seems a more appropriate instrument. Our findings also suggest that the monetary policy has a significant role in stabilizing both real and nominal sectors of the economy. Originality/value – The main value of this paper is to examine the significance of monetary policy for a developing and relatively small open economy, namely, Pakistan. The authors use the error correction model, which improves the estimation by accounting for the long-run association. They also take into account the world oil prices by including the world commodity price index as a control variable in their empirical investigation. Finally, they utilize quarterly data rather than annual, and they cover a relatively recent sample period.

Money stock determination process and money multiplier: case of South Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Serdar Ongan ◽  
Ismet Gocer
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Asymmetric Structure ◽  
Money Stock ◽  
Monetary Base ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Money Multiplier ◽  
Determination Process ◽  
Non Linear

Purpose This study aims to re-examine the money stock determination process for South Korea under the assumption of the existence of potential asymmetric (non-linear) relations (a mechanism) between the money stock and the monetary base. Because, the true and detailed diagnosis of this mechanism is crucially important for the Bank of Korea’s (BOK)’ monetary policy, as this country has been adopting an inflation targeting policy (ITP) for a long-time. Design/methodology/approach This paper applies the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model by Shin et al. (2014). This model separates the original series of the monetary base into their increases (+) and decreases (−). The increases (+) and decreases (−) done by the BOK correspond to expansionary and contractionary monetary policies, respectively, in this study. Findings The empirical findings are two-fold. First, the money stock determination process in Korea has a non-linear (asymmetric) structure. This means that increases (+) and decreases (−) in the monetary base have asymmetric (different) impacts on money stock. Second, the BOK’s only expansionary monetary policy exhibits exogenous nature money stock determination with an almost stable money multiplier. These findings may help the BOK to take preventive precautions in its monetary policy implementations. Originality/value This study with its methodology may help the BOK to take preventive measures in its ongoing ITP proactively.

The long-run stability of a small, open economy under crawling peg regime

2002 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-78
Author(s):  
S. Çiftçioğlu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Output Stability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The paper analyses the long-run (steady-state) output and price stability of a small, open economy which adopts a “crawling-peg” type of exchange-rate regime in the presence of various kinds of random shocks. Analytical and simulation results suggest that with the exception of money demand shocks, an exchange rate policy which involves a relatively higher rate of indexation of the exchange rate to price level is likely to lead to the worsening of price stability for all types of shocks. On the other hand, the impact of adopting such a policy on output stability depends on the type of the shock; for policy shocks to the exchange rate and shocks to output demand, output stability is worsened whereas for the shocks to risk premium of domestic assets, supply price of domestic output and the wage rate, better output stability is achieved in the long run.

HABIT FORMATION AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

2003 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cem Karayalçin
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Time Preference ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fiscal Shocks

The paper studies the effects of an expansionary fiscal policy in a general equilibrium model of a small open economy. Households are assumed to possess habit-forming, endogenous rates of time preference. In response to fiscal shocks, the model generates cyclical endogenous persistence and procyclical time paths for consumption, employment, and investment, as well as a countercyclical path for the current account. Furthermore, fiscal shocks are shown to have positive long-run effects on output and negative long-run effects on consumption.

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