Impact of Foreign Reserves and Economic Growth on Money Supply: Evidence from the WAMZ Countries

This paper analyzes the impact of foreign currency reserve and economic growth on money supply using panel data from five West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) member states from 2001-2019. The study employed the dynamic technique, fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares (FMOLS and DOLS), and the static method (fixed effect model) for the robustness check. The long run results showed that foreign currency reserves (FCR) have a positive impact on money supply, implying that a one percent increase in FCR augments money supply (M2) by 2.87%, 0.44% and 0.08%, respectively, in the long run. Similarly, economic growth is associated with an increase in money supply in both models. Furthermore, the Dumitrescu & Hurlin (2012) estimation revealed a feedback association between foreign currency reserve and money supply. This means that foreign reserves and money supply are complementary. Conversely, a unidirectional causality moving from economic growth to M2 is observed, demonstrating that economic growth causes M2. This outcome is explained by the quantity theory of money (QTM) in which the velocity of money is a positive function of total money supply. As money circulates in the economy as a result of a surge in investments, this consequently increases money stock. Similarly, investment opportunities that are being exploited day-by-day explains the growing money stock (WAMI, 2018). Central banks should endeavor to monitor the expansionary influence of net foreign assets (NFA) on money supply growth in the WAMZ by establishing suitable methods to sterilize foreign exchange infusions into the economy.

The Deutsche Bundesbank's Concept of Monetary Policy, With Particular Reference to its Choice of Intermediate Variables in the Period 1972-1979

<p>The maintenance of price stability is the Bundesbank's ultimate objective. The memory of two hyperinflations within a 30-year period has made the fight against inflation of paramount social and political importance. In the Bank's view inflation engenders uncertainties which may jeopardise capital investment on which the competitiveness of German industry as well as full employment and economic growth depends. The Bundesbank pursues this goal by setting the marginal cost of central bank money required by the banks to finance their expansion. Thus, both the liquidity of the banking system and the cost of borrowing are controlled. This does not necessarily mean that the banks' loan rate of interest is the Bundesbank's Intermediate target. In fact, the Bank does not have one single intermediate target. Since the Bank's views of the monetary sector are manifested in the form of an interlocking system of financial variables, the selection of an appropriate intermediate target depends on the actual economic situation. In this context, the money stock supply (M3) is seen by the Bundesbank as functionally related to bank lending and the accumulation of long-term funds at the banks (monetary capital formation). An increase in interest rates would reduce bank lending, stimulate monetary capital formation and hence reduce the money stock supply (M3). In addition, it would check the utilisation of the money stock supply. This is seen as important because once money has entered the system it may generate unacceptable expenditure flows. To control the growth of the money stock supply, the Bundesbank relies on monetary capital formation, because small stocks of public debt rule out large-scale open market operations. In the Bank's view monetary policy should aim at keeping the banks' loan rate of interest as closely as possible to the natural rate. Lags in this Wicksellian transmission process may arise if the banks have ample margins between their loan and deposit rates when a restrictive monetary policy is implemented. As deposit rates adjust sooner than loan rates to a change in market rates, this also blunts the immediate impact of a policy change. The Bundesbank favours flexible rates of exchange in order to safeguard the financial system against inflows of foreign capital. It would welcome an appreciation of the D-Mark as a contribution to price stability, even though it could result in a loss of employment and exports as it stimulates German business to invest abroad. Furthermore, the Bank aims at constraining the monetary disturbances arising from public sector deficits and collective wage bargaining by means of its annual monetary growth target. This should serve as a signal to non-banks, which they are supposed to internalise in their decision-making. During the review period, the effectiveness of these safeguards was small as witnessed by inflows of foreign capital, large public sector deficits and excessive wage settlements. Moreover, the Bundesbank has been confronted with the development of parallel markets, in particular the Eurocurrency markets, in which borrowers can avoid the effects of its constraints.</p>

The Deutsche Bundesbank's Concept of Monetary Policy, With Particular Reference to its Choice of Intermediate Variables in the Period 1972-1979

<p>The maintenance of price stability is the Bundesbank's ultimate objective. The memory of two hyperinflations within a 30-year period has made the fight against inflation of paramount social and political importance. In the Bank's view inflation engenders uncertainties which may jeopardise capital investment on which the competitiveness of German industry as well as full employment and economic growth depends. The Bundesbank pursues this goal by setting the marginal cost of central bank money required by the banks to finance their expansion. Thus, both the liquidity of the banking system and the cost of borrowing are controlled. This does not necessarily mean that the banks' loan rate of interest is the Bundesbank's Intermediate target. In fact, the Bank does not have one single intermediate target. Since the Bank's views of the monetary sector are manifested in the form of an interlocking system of financial variables, the selection of an appropriate intermediate target depends on the actual economic situation. In this context, the money stock supply (M3) is seen by the Bundesbank as functionally related to bank lending and the accumulation of long-term funds at the banks (monetary capital formation). An increase in interest rates would reduce bank lending, stimulate monetary capital formation and hence reduce the money stock supply (M3). In addition, it would check the utilisation of the money stock supply. This is seen as important because once money has entered the system it may generate unacceptable expenditure flows. To control the growth of the money stock supply, the Bundesbank relies on monetary capital formation, because small stocks of public debt rule out large-scale open market operations. In the Bank's view monetary policy should aim at keeping the banks' loan rate of interest as closely as possible to the natural rate. Lags in this Wicksellian transmission process may arise if the banks have ample margins between their loan and deposit rates when a restrictive monetary policy is implemented. As deposit rates adjust sooner than loan rates to a change in market rates, this also blunts the immediate impact of a policy change. The Bundesbank favours flexible rates of exchange in order to safeguard the financial system against inflows of foreign capital. It would welcome an appreciation of the D-Mark as a contribution to price stability, even though it could result in a loss of employment and exports as it stimulates German business to invest abroad. Furthermore, the Bank aims at constraining the monetary disturbances arising from public sector deficits and collective wage bargaining by means of its annual monetary growth target. This should serve as a signal to non-banks, which they are supposed to internalise in their decision-making. During the review period, the effectiveness of these safeguards was small as witnessed by inflows of foreign capital, large public sector deficits and excessive wage settlements. Moreover, the Bundesbank has been confronted with the development of parallel markets, in particular the Eurocurrency markets, in which borrowers can avoid the effects of its constraints.</p>

The socio economic challenge to improve the productivity of brackish water aquaculture business in Aceh Tamiang Regency

There were 3,624.5 hectares of the brackish water pond in Aceh Tamiang, which can support the national shrimp export program. The problems arise due to the pond ownership matter, the source of financing, the technology used, and the institutionalization action to improve productivity. The purpose of this research is to improve brackish water pond productivity based on socio-economic aspects in the location. The survey to achieve these aims conducted from April - May 2021, in eight villages in Aceh Tamiang. Data and information were interviewed from 160 pond farmers. Simple statistics and descriptive techniques were used to analyse the data. The main findings are: 91.1 % of the traditional brackish water farmers depend on commercial seed and feed; the productivity of the brackish water pond is between 1.2 tonnes/hectares/year - 2.4 tonnes/hectares/year; the average pond ownership is between 1.1 and 3.4 hectares/farmer; 60% - 94,1% of financial funding to run business depends on their source and the rest from investor or trader. This research recommends: the brackish water farmers in all villages should be organized in one “corporate business” to improve productivity. This institution is owned by farmers based on money stock and managed by professionals.

Monetary Policy And Economic Stabilisation In Nigeria; 1986 – 2019; (Distributional Koyck Lag Model Approach)

This study examined the relevance of Monetary Policy in stabilizing the Nigerian Economy for the period (1986-2019); using the Koyck Model, regression. The results obtained reveal that the rate of growth in the money stock has significant impact on output, contrary to its impact on inflation. Changes in money supply did not exert significant influence on the lending interest rate; however operating lag period of money stock on interest rate was instantaneous. The lending interest rates were exogenously determined by lending institutions. Lending interest rates influenced investment significantly, though with a very long operating lag period. The immediate past value of Money supply significantly influenced the succeeding inflation rate and investment. Likewise, inflation caused growth in the gross domestic output. The joint influences of money stock and national output impacted significantly on the general price level. Consequently, monetary policy measures through adjustments in money stock were better in stabilizing growth than Inflation. Measures that make cash directly available to economic units stimulated investment.Based on the results of this study,we recommend that; the growth of Money Supply cannot be used to influence the general price level and the lending Interest Rate especially in the short run. Changes in the stock of Money Supply can be used to stimulate Economic Growth. Inflation can better be managed with proportionate growths in Money Supply and the Gross Domestic Product. Investment can be tracked by manipulating the lending interest rate. Preview

Computational Analysis of the Properties of Post-Keynesian Endogenous Money Systems

The debate about whether or not a growth imperative exists in debt-based, interest-bearing monetary systems has not yet been settled. It is the goal of this paper to introduce a new perspective in this discussion. For that purpose, an SFC computational model is constructed that simulates a post-Keynesian endogenous money system without including economic parameters such as production, wages, consumption and savings. The case is made that isolating the monetary system allows for better analysis of the inherent properties of such a system. Loan demands, which are assumed to happen, are the driving force of the model. Simulations can be run in two modes, each based on a different assumption. Either the growth rate of the money stock is assumed to be constant or the loan ratio, expressed as a percentage of the money stock, is assumed to be constant. Simulations with varying parameters were run in order to determine the conditions under which the model converges to stability, which is defined as converging to a bounded debt ratio. The analysis showed that the stability of the model is dependent on net bank profit ratios, expressed relative to their debt assets, remaining below the growth rate of the money stock. Based on these findings, it is argued that the question about the existence of a growth imperative in debt-based, interest-bearing monetary systems needs to be reframed. The question becomes whether a steady-state economy can realistically support such a system without destabilising it. In order to answer this question, the real-world behaviour of economic actors must be included in the model. It was concluded that there are indications that it might not be feasible for a steady-state economy to support a stable debt-based, interest-bearing monetary system without strong interventions. However, more research is necessary for a definite answer. Real-world observable data should be analysed through the lens of the presented model to bring more clarity.

Computational Analysis of the Properties of Post-Keynesian Endogenous Money Systems

&ldquo;Money has always been something of an embarrassment to economic theory. Everyone agrees that it isimportant; indeed, much of macroeconomic policy discussion makes no sense without reference to money.Yet, for the most part theory fails to provide a good account for it.&rdquo;(Banerjee and Maskin, 1996, p. 955)The debate about whether or not a growth imperative exists in debt based, interest bearing mone-tary systems has not yet been settled. It is the goal of this paper to introduce a new perspective inthis discussion.For that purpose an SFC computational model is constructed which simulates a post KeynesianEndogenous Money system without including economic parameters such as production, wages,consumption and savings. A case is made that isolating the monetary system allows for betteranalysis of the inherent properties of such a system.Loan demands, which are assumed to happen, are the driving force of the model. Simulationscan be run in 2 modes, each based on a different assumption. Either the growth rate of the moneystock is assumed to be constant or the loan rate, expressed as a percentage of the money stock, isconsidered to be constant.Simualtions with varying parameters are run in order to determine the conditions under whichthe model converges to stability, which is defined as converging to a bounded debt rate.The analysis shows that stability of the model is dependent on net bank profit ratios, expressedrelative to their debt assets, remaining below the growth rate of the money stock. Based on thesefindings it is argued that the question about the existence of a growth imperative in debt based,interest bearing monetary systems needs to be reframed. The question becomes whether a steadystate economy can support such a system without destabilizing it.It is concluded that there are indications that this might not be the case. However, for a definiteanswer more research is necessary. Real world observable data should be analysed through thelens of the presented model to bring more clarity.

A Bootstrap Method to Test Granger-Causality in the Frequency Domain

We propose a bootstrap test for unconditional and conditional Granger-causality spectra in the frequency domain. Our test aims to detect if the causality at a particular frequency is systematically different from zero. In particular, we consider a stochastic process derived applying independently the stationary bootstrap to the original series. At each frequency, we test the sample causality against the distribution of the median causality across frequencies estimated for that process. Via our procedure, we infer about the relationship between money stock and GDP in the Euro Area during the period 1999–2017. We point out that the money stock aggregate M1 had a significant impact on economic output at all frequencies, while the opposite relationship is significant only at low frequencies.

Money stock determination process and money multiplier: case of South Korea

Purpose This study aims to re-examine the money stock determination process for South Korea under the assumption of the existence of potential asymmetric (non-linear) relations (a mechanism) between the money stock and the monetary base. Because, the true and detailed diagnosis of this mechanism is crucially important for the Bank of Korea’s (BOK)’ monetary policy, as this country has been adopting an inflation targeting policy (ITP) for a long-time. Design/methodology/approach This paper applies the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model by Shin et al. (2014). This model separates the original series of the monetary base into their increases (+) and decreases (−). The increases (+) and decreases (−) done by the BOK correspond to expansionary and contractionary monetary policies, respectively, in this study. Findings The empirical findings are two-fold. First, the money stock determination process in Korea has a non-linear (asymmetric) structure. This means that increases (+) and decreases (−) in the monetary base have asymmetric (different) impacts on money stock. Second, the BOK’s only expansionary monetary policy exhibits exogenous nature money stock determination with an almost stable money multiplier. These findings may help the BOK to take preventive precautions in its monetary policy implementations. Originality/value This study with its methodology may help the BOK to take preventive measures in its ongoing ITP proactively.