Drifting the goals archetype: a systemic study

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Virupaxi Bagodi ◽  
Biswajit Mahanty
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Systems Thinking ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Current Reality

PurposeManagerial decision-making is an area of interest to both academia and practitioners. Researchers found that managers often fail to manage complex decision-making tasks and system thinkers assert that generic structures known as systems archetypes help them to a great deal in handling such situations. In this paper, it is demonstrated that decision makers resort to lowering of goal (quick-fix) in order to resolve the gap between the goal and current reality in the “drifting the goals” systems archetype.Design/methodology/approachA real-life case study is taken up to highlight the pitfalls of “drifting the goals” systems archetype for a decision situation in the Indian two-wheeler industry. System dynamics modeling is made use of to obtain the results.FindingsThe decision makers fail to realize the pitfall of lowering the goal to resolve the gap between the goal and current reality. It is seen that, irrespective of current less-than-desirable performance, managers adopting corrective actions other than lowering of goals perform better in the long run. Further, it is demonstrated that extending the boundary and experimentation results in designing a better service system and setting benchmarks.Practical implicationsThe best possible way to avoid the pitfall is to hold the vision and not lower the long term goal. The managers must be aware of the pitfalls beforehand.Originality/valueSystems thinking is important in complex decision-making tasks. Managers need to embrace long-term perspective in decision-making. This paper demonstrates the value of systems thinking in terms of a case study on the “drifting the goals” systems archetype.

scholarly journals Evaluación comparativa multifuncional de sistemas agrarios mediante AHP: Aplicación al olivar ecológico, integrado y convencional de Andalucía

2011 ◽  
Vol 5 (9) ◽  
pp. 27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Parra López ◽  
Javier Calatrava Requena ◽  
Tomás De Haro Giménez
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Farming Systems ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Olive Groves ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Even though multifunctionality concept is reflected, implicit or explicitly, in the design of actual agrarian policies, its consideration when analysing and assessing farming systems is relatively limited in the scientific literature. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is proposed with this aim. AHP is a multicriteria discrete decision support technique that is used in complex decision making. This methodology is stated jointly with a proposed procedure to measure relative agreement among decision makers and uniformity of alternatives’ performances in group decision making. Finally AHP is implemented in the assessment of organic, integrated and conventional olive groves in Andalusia considering criteria of a different nature – economic, technical, sociocultural and environmental –. The final purpose is determining the more interesting growing techniques from a holistic point of view for all the society in the medium/long-term on the basis of knowledge of experts on olive.

scholarly journals Decision-making on Implementation of IPO Under Topological Uncertainty

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 193-200 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karel Doubravský ◽  
Tomáš Meluzín ◽  
Mirko Dohnal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Trees ◽  
Initial Public Offering ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Structure Topology ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Flexible Integration ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Public Offering

IPO (Initial Public Offering) is a complex decision making task which is always associated with different types of uncertainty. Poor accuracies of available probabilities of lotteries e.g. quantification of investor interest is studied in the first part of this paper (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012). However, IPO is often prohibitively ill-known. This paper takes into consideration the fact that decision makers cannot specify the structure/topology of the relevant decision tree. It means that one IPO task is specified by several (partially) different decision trees which comes from different sources e.g. from different teams of decision makers/experts. A flexible integration of those trees is based on fuzzy logic using the reconciliation (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012). The developed algorithm is demonstrated by a case study which is presented in details. The IPO case integrates two partially different decision trees.

scholarly journals MULTI-CRITERIA MODEL BASED ON LINGUISTIC NEUTROSOPHIC NUMBERS: THE SELECTION OF UNMANNED AIRCRAFT

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Goran Ćirović ◽  
Dragan Pamučar ◽  
Nataša Popović-Miletić
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Unmanned Aircraft ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Linguistic Neutrosophic Numbers ◽  
Selection Of

The paper presents a new approach in treating uncertainty and subjectivity in the decision making process based on the modification of Multi Attributive Border Approximation area Comparison (MABAC) and an Objective-Subjective (OS) model by applying linguistic neutrosophic numbers (LNN) instead of traditional numerical values. By integrating these models with linguistic neutrosophic numbers it was shown that it is possible to a significant extent to eliminate subjective qualitative assessments and assumptions by decision makers in complex decision-making conditions. On this basis, a new hybrid LNN OS-MABAC model was formed. This model was tested and validated on a case-study of the selection of optimal unmanned aircraft intended to combat forest fires.

Shifting the burden archetype: developing a system dynamics game

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 380-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
Virupaxi Bagodi ◽  
Biswajit Mahanty
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Fundamental Solutions ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Two Wheeler

Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to demonstrate the short comings in decision-making in a complex system. An approach to coping with a complex decision-making task is to identify generic structures known as systems archetypes in a given decision situation. In the “shifting the burden” archetype, decision-makers fail to identify the fundamental solution early and are subjected to accumulated side effects as they resort to quick remedial solutions. Design/methodology/approach – A system dynamics-based game has been built to highlight the pitfalls of “shifting the burden” systems archetype for a decision-making situation in the Indian two-wheeler industry. Participants of the game make strategic decisions for a company and receive feedback of their decisions and corresponding actions after every plan period. Findings – The decision-makers who adopt short-term measures to alleviate the company’s problems, invariably fail in their endeavour. Success comes to those who realize the importance of having a long-term perspective in the form of pursuing fundamental solutions. Practical implications – What could be a possible way of avoiding the pitfalls? The decision-makers should be aware of the pitfalls beforehand and identify the same – a decision support system possibly can aid them in this regard. Originality/value – The complexity of the system increases as the business grows. The managers need to adopt systems thinking and embrace a long-term perspective. Decision support systems integrating models of systems archetypes provide an environment to simulate various decision situations and see the effects beforehand.

Integration between knowledge management and business process management and its impact on the decision making process in the construction sector: a case study of Jordan

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sami Wasef Abuezhayeh ◽  
Les Ruddock ◽  
Issa Shehabat
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Knowledge Management ◽  
Business Process Management ◽  
Process Management ◽  
Business Processes ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate and explain how organizations in the construction sector can enhance their decision-making process (DMP) by practising knowledge management (KM) and business process management (BPM) activities. A conceptual framework is developed that recognises the elements that impact DMP in terms of KM and BPM. The development of this framework goes beyond current empirical work on KM in addition to BPM as it investigates a wider variety of variables that impact DMP. Design/methodology/approach A case study is undertaken in the context of the construction industry in Jordan. A theoretical framework is developed and assessment of the proposed framework was undertaken through a questionnaire survey of decision-makers in the construction sector and expert interviews. Findings The outcomes of this research provide several contributions to aid decision-makers in construction organizations. Growth in the usage of KM and BPM, in addition to the integration between them, can provide employees with task-related knowledge in the organization’s operative business processes, improve process performance, promote core competence and maximise and optimise business performance. Originality/value Through the production of a framework, this study provides a tool to enable improved decision-making. The framework generates a strong operational as well as theoretical approach to the organizational utilization of knowledge and business processes.

A case-based reasoning system for fault detection and isolation: a case study on complex gearboxes

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumava Boral ◽  
Sanjay Kumar Chaturvedi ◽  
V.N.A. Naikan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fault Detection ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fault Detection And Isolation ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Case Based Reasoning ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Case Based

Purpose Usually, the machinery in process plants is exposed to harsh and uncontrolled environmental conditions. Even after taking different types of preventive measures to detect and isolate the faults at the earliest possible opportunity becomes a complex decision-making process that often requires experts’ opinions and judicious decisions. The purpose of this paper is to propose a framework to detect, isolate and to suggest appropriate maintenance tasks for large-scale complex machinery (i.e. gearboxes of steel processing plant) in a simplified and structured manner by utilizing the prior fault histories available with the organization in conjunction with case-based reasoning (CBR) approach. It is also demonstrated that the proposed framework can easily be implemented by using today’s graphical user interface enabled tools such as Microsoft Visual Basic and similar. Design/methodology/approach CBR, an amalgamated domain of artificial intelligence and human cognitive process, has been applied to carry out the task of fault detection and isolation (FDI). Findings The equipment failure history and actions taken along with the pertinent health indicators are sufficient to detect and isolate the existing fault(s) and to suggest proper maintenance actions to minimize associated losses. The complex decision-making process of maintaining such equipment can exploit the principle of CBR and overcome the limitations of the techniques such as artificial neural networks and expert systems. The proposed CBR-based framework is able to provide inference with minimum or even with some missing information to take appropriate actions. This proposed framework would alleviate from the frequent requirement of expert’s interventions and in-depth knowledge of various analysis techniques expected to be known to process engineers. Originality/value The CBR approach has demonstrated its usefulness in many areas of practical applications. The authors perceive its application potentiality to FDI with suggested maintenance actions to alleviate an end-user from the frequent requirement of an expert for diagnosis or inference. The proposed framework can serve as a useful tool/aid to the process engineers to detect and isolate the fault of large-scale complex machinery with suggested actions in a simplified way.

scholarly journals GPs’ insights about discontinuing long-term antidepressant use: a qualitative study

2021 ◽  
pp. BJGP.2020.0913
Author(s):  
Maria Donald ◽  
Riitta Partanen ◽  
Leah Sharman ◽  
Johanna Lynch ◽  
Genevieve A Dingle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prescribing Practices ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Relational Context ◽  
Qualitative Interview Study ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Antidepressant Use ◽  
Set Up

Background: There is considerable concern about increasing antidepressant use, with Australians among the highest users in the world. Evidence suggests this is driven by patients on long-term rather than new prescriptions. Most antidepressant prescriptions are generated in general practice and it is likely that attempts to discontinue are either not occurring or are proving unsuccessful. Aim: To explore GPs’ insights about long-term antidepressant prescribing. Design and Setting: A qualitative interview study with Australian GPs. Method: Semi-structured interviews explored GPs’ discontinuation experiences, decision-making, perceived risks and benefits, and support for patients. Data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. Results: Three overarching themes were identified from interviews with 22 GPs. The first, ‘Not a simple deprescribing decision’, speaks to the complex decision-making GPs undertake in determining whether a patient is ready to discontinue. The second, ‘A journey taken together’ captures a set of steps GPs take together with their patients to initiate and set-up adequate support before, during and after discontinuation. The third: ‘Supporting change in GPs’ prescribing practices’ describes what GPs would like to see change to better support them and their patients to discontinue antidepressants. Conclusions: GPs see discontinuation of long-term antidepressant use as more than a simple deprescribing decision. It begins with considering a patients’ social and relational context and is a journey involving careful preparation, tailored care and regular review. These insights suggest interventions to redress long-term use will need to take these considerations into account and be placed in a wider discussion about the use of antidepressants.

Strategic Development of a Decision Making Support System in a Public R&D Center

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 32-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos E. Escobar-Toledo ◽  
Héctor A. Martínez-Berumen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Development ◽  
Organizational Functions ◽  
Transition Plan ◽  
Reliable Methods

Decision making in new technologies is a crucial activity to raise competitiveness, especially for technology organizations. The decision-making process requires the use of information technology tools, since the information amount is large and requires reliable methods for collecting, accessing, storing, processing, distributing, and evaluating, in order to provide reliable information to decision makers. The strategy of an organization must take into account the integration of this aspect with other organizational functions. This paper presents a proposal to integrate new elements into the IT strategy, considering the interactions with other organizational functions, defining an implementation and transition plan that takes into account the organization dynamics, which has limited resources and, therefore, requires a gradual and long term transition plan. This paper refers as case study to a Mexican Public R&D Center, which has re-engineered its operating model with a systems approach.

Including decision-makers preferences in the cost-deprivation trade-off during disaster interventions

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Diehlmann ◽  
Patrick Siegfried Hiemsch ◽  
Marcus Wiens ◽  
Markus Lüttenberg ◽  
Frank Schultmann
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Humanitarian Logistics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Weighted Sum ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Conflicting Objectives ◽  
The Cost

Purpose In this contribution, the purpose of this study is to extend the established social cost concept of humanitarian logistics into a preference-based bi-objective approach. The novel concept offers an efficient, robust and transparent way to consider the decision-maker’s preference. In principle, the proposed method applies to any multi-objective decision and is especially suitable for decisions with conflicting objectives and asymmetric impact. Design/methodology/approach The authors bypass the shortcomings of the traditional approach by introducing a normalized weighted sum approach. Within this approach, logistics and deprivation costs are normalized with the help of Nadir and Utopia points. The weighting factor represents the preference of a decision-maker toward emphasizing the reduction of one cost component. The authors apply the approach to a case study for hypothetical water contamination in the city of Berlin, in which authorities select distribution center (DiC) locations to supply water to beneficiaries. Findings The results of the case study highlight that the decisions generated by the approach are more consistent with the decision-makers preferences while enabling higher efficiency gains. Furthermore, it is possible to identify robust solutions, i.e. DiCs opened in each scenario. These locations can be the focal point of interest during disaster preparedness. Moreover, the introduced approach increases the transparency of the decision by highlighting the cost-deprivation trade-off, together with the Pareto-front. Practical implications For practical users, such as disaster control and civil protection authorities, this approach provides a transparent focus on the trade-off of their decision objectives. The case study highlights that it proves to be a powerful concept for multi-objective decisions in the domain of humanitarian logistics and for collaborative decision-making. Originality/value To the best of the knowledge, the present study is the first to include preferences in the cost-deprivation trade-off. Moreover, it highlights the promising option to use a weighted-sum approach to understand the decisions affected by this trade-off better and thereby, increase the transparency and quality of decision-making in disasters.

PLANNING A PRODUCT FOR TOURING DESTINATIONS THROUGH THE USE OF SPATIAL MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS

2006 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-82
Author(s):  
Chris Vassiliadis ◽  
John Mylonakis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Mathematical Analysis ◽  
Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Northern Greece ◽  
Railway Stations ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Complex Decision

Mathematical models provide spatial analysis to help complex decision-making and can be successfully applied to product planning in tourism. This paper presents a case study, and suggests one process by which planning agencies may evaluate the railway stations in the Northern Greece network. Six geographical points of distinction are identified for promotion based on linear-nearest neighbor analysis and the connectivity index. A functional diagram evaluates each point based on infrastructure, natural and cultural attractions. Finally, these indicators suggest marketing considerations, which may lend support to Management or stakeholders’ discussions to maximize the geographic points.

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