Delayed vote raises Nigeria stability risks

Significance Presidential and parliamentary elections have been rescheduled for March 28, with state and governorship elections due on April 11. Attahiru Jega, the head of the INEC, said that while the commission was fully prepared to conduct the election, last minute warnings from the security and intelligence chiefs stated that electoral security could not be guaranteed given the demand on troops needed to fight the Boko Haram insurgency in the north-east. While constitutional provisions allow for this short-term extension, the reason given for the postponement opens up the prospect for further delay. Impacts A severely flawed electoral process will have a knock-on effect on broader perceptions about Africa's democracy trends. Across the region, the outward appearance of democracy through holding elections rarely indicates free opposition participation. Regional Islamist militancy challenges will continue to be associated with reducing political space, from Chad to Kenya.

Significance Boko Haram has been severely weakened by the regional military offensive underway since February. With some assistance from Nigerian soldiers, troops from Chad, Cameroon and Niger have forced the insurgents to retreat from the majority of areas under their control. Completing the defeat of Boko Haram -- at least as a guerrilla force -- will be one of the incoming administration's first priorities. Impacts The incoming government will seek to fund pledges to accelerate reconstruction and rehabilitation of the north-east. However, it is set to inherit a cash-strapped economy, after one of Nigeria's most expensive elections. As laid out by the respected Borno state governor, substantial international aid assistance will be required. Such reconstruction work will also be important to allow the return of tens of thousands of refugees.


Significance In recent weeks, ISWAP captured the town of Kangarwa and reportedly massacred over 100 soldiers in the nearby town of Metele. Coming just months before the February 2019 presidential election, mounting ISWAP attacks are raising questions over the military’s strategy and President Muhammadu Buhari’s performance since taking office in 2015. Impacts The humanitarian situation in the north-east will likely worsen, as insecurity forces aid agencies to reduce their presence in rural Borno. Growing accusations about the military's politicisation could affect the credibility of Buhari’s victory should he win re-election. Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau may be able to win back some rival ISWAP members upset over recent turmoil within their faction.


Significance Regional councils are one of the last institutions provided for in the 1996 constitution yet to be realised and are also meant to give life to the ‘special status’ granted last year to the predominantly anglophone Northwest and Southwest regions. Although President Paul Biya’s government hopes this will help placate long-standing anglophone grievances, a regional crisis risks morphing into a national one. Impacts The reported acquirement of more sophisticated weaponry by armed separatist groups could see an escalation in fighting over the short term. The anglophone crisis, coupled with political protests and Boko Haram attacks in the north, will stretch the security forces' capacities. With rival separatist ‘governments’, achieving a meaningful settlement will be complicated by determining which group is representative.


Significance In recent months, ISWAP has apparently seized large amounts of military weapons and equipment from the Nigerian military, including heavy armour, and strengthened its control of seized areas. With a raging banditry crisis in the north-west dividing its attention, the army is on the back foot against both ISWAP and the Abubakar Shekau-led Boko Haram faction in the Lake Chad Basin. Impacts ISWAP’s funding will likely remain locally based over the short term, but concerns will grow over increasing international links. Shekau’s Boko Haram faction is less potent currently but remains a serious threat over the short-to-medium term. Minimal reported clashes between ISWAP and Boko Haram fighters indicate both are mainly occupied with attacking military targets for now. Scrutiny will grow over the alleged role of Ansaru, a small group of al-Qaida-linked former Boko Haram fighters, in north-western violence.


2020 ◽  
Vol 68 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvia Corona ◽  
Paolo Barbier ◽  
Guangyu Liu ◽  
Osafo A. Annoh ◽  
Marcio Scorsin ◽  
...  

Significance This is expected to be followed by the first parliamentary election since 2014, at some point in early 2022. It now looks increasingly likely that both elections will be delayed. The electoral process lacks the elements it would need to be truly transformative, but it is prompting shifts in the political elite which will dictate developments for at least the next year. Impacts Khalifa Haftar will keep pushing for his armed group to form the core of Libya’s future army Seif al-Islam Qadhafi’s candidacy in the elections is unlikely to result in him becoming president. Aguileh Saleh looks set to stay on as House of Representatives speaker with no clear date for parliamentary elections.


2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ifeanyichukwu M. Abada ◽  
Nneka Ifeoma Okafor ◽  
Nkemjika C. Duru

The decision among human beings to change their places of residence has remained an age-long strategy of survival practiced for a very long time. However, the migratory activities associated with internal population displacement are often propelled by forced migration occasioned by natural or anthropogenic forces or a combination of both. The upsurge of internal population displacement in the Nigerian state is incontrovertible given the maniacal campaign of the Boko Haram insurgency in the North-east region. The dilemma of internally displaced persons and the imperative management have proven a formidable challenge to the Nigerian state. The aim of this paper therefore is to ethically investigate whether the ineffective control of the Boko Haram insurgency by the state is implicated in the rising incidence of internally displaced persons and evident vulnerabilities. The study adopted qualitative research which relied heavily on the documentary method of data collection and, guided by the ‘Marxist theory of the post-colonial state’ as a theoretical underpinning. The findings of this paper showed that the ineffective control of Boko Haram insurgency by the state was implicated in the rising incidence of internal population displacement in the North-east. The paper critically observed that the state and its agencies like the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), State Emergency Management Agencies (SEMAs), National Commission for Refugees, Migration and Internally Displaced Persons (NCFRMI), Presidential Initiative for the North East (PINE), Presidential Committee on the North-East Initiative (PCNI), among others have become the main instruments for the advancement of the interests of the dominant class. The study however recommends amongst other things that the state should ethically rethink its narrow strategy against Boko Haram insurgency through the adoption of a broader approach according to the dictates of Nigeria’s Countering Violent Extremism framework.


2007 ◽  
Vol 30 (12) ◽  
pp. 942-954 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pooran Wynarczyk

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the “gender management gap” in the scientific labour market in the North East of England. The paper seeks to compare and contrast employment, ownership, management structure and capacity between men and women in the Science, Engineering and Technology (SET) sector.Design/methodology/approachThe empirical investigation is based on a survey of 60 SET‐based small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs), operating in the North East of England.FindingsThe results show that women are particularly under‐represented in managerial and senior positions of scientific nature in the private sector in the North East of England. The “glass ceiling” effect appears to be widespread.Research limitations/implicationsThere are very limited empirical data and research on the nature and level of participation of women in the scientific managerial labour market at firm level in the UK. There is a need for more rigorous research at firm and regional levels to examine the cumulative effects of underlying factors that prevent women from progression, beyond the “glass ceiling”, in the scientific labour market.Practical implicationsThis paper builds upon a research project funded by the ESRC Science in Society Programme. The key findings have resulted in a subsequent award from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Impact Grants to establish the “North East Role Model Platform for Innovative Women” in the light of the Science City Initiative.Originality/valueThe “gender management gap” in the scientific labour market in the North East of England has not, empirically, been investigated before and appears to be a highly neglected area of public policy and research.


2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 655-666 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jon Warren

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to argue that the application of social policy in the North East of England is often characterised by tension and conflict. The agencies and professionals charged with implementation of Westminster driven policies constantly seek to deploy their knowledge of local conditions in order to make them both practical and palatable. Design/methodology/approach This paper examines the region via established literature from history, geography, sociology and social policy. The paper gives illustrations via empirical work which has evaluated initiatives to improve the health of long term health-related benefit recipients and to sustain individuals in employment in the region. Findings Central to the paper’s argument is the notion of “biographies of place”. The core of this idea is that places have biographies in the same way as individuals and possess specific identities. These biographies have been shaped by the intersections between environment, history, culture and economic and social policy. The paper identifies the region’s economic development, subsequent decline and the alliance of labour politics and industrial employers around a common consensus that sought economic prosperity and social progress via a vision of “modernisation” as a key component of this biography. Originality/value The paper argues that an appreciation of these spatial biographies can result in innovative and more effective social policy interventions with the potential to address issues that affect entire localities.


Significance The presidential election will take place on April 11 and parliamentary elections are scheduled for October. As the country prepares for the polls, security challenges and humanitarian emergencies are unfolding in various parts of the country, especially in remote and border regions. Impacts The designation of a vice-president could shift balances of power within the family network that dominates top political and military posts. Western powers and other African states are likely to accept even a highly flawed election, as they have in the past. Further protests may occur, but Deby appears less vulnerable in the short-term than Malian President Ibrahim Keita proved in 2020.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document