Oligarchs risk unleashing new Ukraine tensions

Significance This follows several days of growing tensions between Kyiv and the oligarch over the control of two energy companies. (Two deputy governors, Hennadiy Korban and Svyatoslav Oliynyk, are separately accused of being involved in criminal activities.) However, Kolomoisky and other oligarchs will retain wide-ranging influence, posing an increasing risk to Ukraine's long-term stability. Impacts More Kyiv-oligarch clashes are likely as the government knows it must push on with a reform and anti-corruption agenda to save the economy. Oligarchs like Kolomoisky have been vital to the war effort in Donbas and will remain important for security. 'Grey cardinals' and 'observers' are key links between oligarchs and political parties and help ensure oligarch interest are protected.

Subject Outlook for presidential elections in Guinea-Bissau. Significance Controversial outgoing President Jose Mario Vaz is among twelve candidates vying for the presidency on November 24. While the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)-backed elections are set to go ahead as planned, fears linger that they will not end recurring political turmoil. Impacts If Pereira wins, he will likely try drafting a new constitution to give greater clarity to the current ambiguous semi-presidential system. Ongoing political instability will exacerbate border insecurity and long-standing narco-trafficking. A more active, internationally backed civil society will ensure added scrutiny of political parties and the government over the long term.


2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 327-346
Author(s):  
Tomasz Miksa ◽  
Rudolf Mayer ◽  
Andreas Rauber

Purpose – This paper aims to address the issue of long-term stability of services and systems depending on service-oriented architecture that has become a popular architecture in systems development and is often implemented using Web services. However, the dependency, especially on externally provided services, can impact the reliability of a system. This is often caused by the loose coupling also implying a less stringent policy for change management and notifications. Therefore, the authors characterise the types of changes that can happen in remote services and propose the concept of resilient web services (RWSs) as an example on how to upgrade existing services to better support the long-term stability of services and systems. Design/methodology/approach – Having analysed several use cases where systems broke because of external dependencies not correctly maintained, the authors derived requirements for RWSs. Findings – By means of a prototype implementation and evaluation of this solution in a case study, the feasibility of the approach was verified. Several scenarios of changes in WSs were simulated, correctly identified and responded to. Originality/value – The authors propose a set of extensions to existing standards such as Web Services Description Language to improve the long-term availability of services in SOAs. A prototype implementation was developed for service monitoring and RWSs.


Significance A fifth by-election will also be held to replace another Labor member who resigned earlier for family reasons. The by-elections will test the country's main political parties -- the Liberals (who govern in coalition with the Nationals) and opposition Labor -- ahead of next year’s general election. The elections and the Court ruling that caused them will also reignite the long-term debate over citizenship and eligibility for office. Impacts The government could lose its majority, but seat gains in June would provide a pre-2019 boost. Calls for a constitutional referendum to solve the citizenship and elections question may grow, but referenda seldom pass. Political parties will face greater pressure to ensure their candidates’ eligibility for office.


Subject Political outlook in Zambia. Significance On March 10, the deputy leader of the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND), Geoffrey Mwamba, appeared in court on charges of training an illegal militia, which he denies. Tensions are rising ahead of presidential and legislative elections scheduled for August 11 -- the first polls to be run under amended rules established by the Constitution of Zambia Amendment Bill, signed into law on January 6. Impacts Some media outlets may self-censor by avoiding reports critical of the PF in an attempt to avoid clampdowns by the government. The 275-million-dollar Chinese loan for a public-sector worker housing fund, agreed in December, may bolster PF support from civil servants. Turkish firm Karadeniz's floating power stations, docked at Mozambique's Nacala port, will help to help offset Zambia's power crisis.


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