'Brexit' fallout could hit EU financial assets widely

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Run Up ◽  
High Yields ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The potential fallout from 'Brexit' on both UK and EU-wide financial assets. Significance In the run-up to the June 23 referendum on the United Kingdom's EU membership, the 'Brexit' risk has been weighing on UK confidence and investment. The reaction in financial markets has been more benign, with the pound rising by 3.6% against the dollar since end-February and a 54-basis-point (bp) year-to-date fall in the ten-year gilts yield. The absence of a 'Brexit premium' suggests investors may be underpricing both the UK-specific and EU-wide risks associated with a UK exit from the EU at a time of heightened market volatility. Impacts UK government bonds, along with their US equivalents, will remain attractive to investors because of their relatively high yields. Meanwhile, euro-area and Japanese bonds, whose yields are negative or slightly positive at best, will remain unattractive. The prolonged uncertainty during the post-referendum renegotiations could shave 1.0-1.5 pp off UK GDP growth by end-2017. The wide UK current account deficit and the country's reliance on foreign capital underscore the risks associated with Brexit.

EU-UK deal allows Cameron to campaign against Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
David Cameron ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.

UK's Cameron likely to go for EU referendum in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Dutch Government ◽  
German Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Official Position ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The government's preferred timetable for the UK referendum on EU membership. Significance The EU membership referendum will be a major event in both EU and UK political and commercial life. Prime Minister David Cameron's official position is that the poll could take place any time before end-2017. He is less concerned about the likely outcome of the referendum, which he is confident will produce an 'in' result, than about achieving a margin in favour of membership that decisively settles the question and minimises the damage to the Conservative Party arising from the process. Impacts The most likely referendum date is September 15, 2016. This timetable would make the key renegotiation period the first half of 2016, when the sympathetic Dutch government chairs the EU Council. The German government would also prefer the UK referendum to be dealt with relatively quickly.

Disarray will cloud start of EU-UK Brexit talks

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Political Turmoil ◽  
Implementing Strategies ◽  
The Eu

Significance The process has been plunged into further uncertainty by the outcome of the June 8 UK general election, which has sparked renewed debate about what kind of Brexit the United Kingdom wants and what kind of future economic relationship with the EU it should seek to negotiate. Impacts The UK government’s weakness is a cause for concern elsewhere in the EU, raising fears that it may not be able to compromise on key issues. Many businesses will begin implementing strategies for dealing with Brexit early next year, before knowing the outcome of the negotiations. Pressure for a lengthy transition period will continue to build. The political turmoil and slowing economic growth in the United Kingdom may increase support for EU membership elsewhere in the bloc.

Prospects for the EU in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Eu

Subject Prospects for the EU in 2016. Significance The EU faces overlapping crises, in security, migration, macroeconomic policy and financial markets, when it must also deal with the United Kingdom's forthcoming EU membership referendum and related demands to renegotiate membership terms. The EU's crises matter not because of their number but because the bloc's efforts to act in any one area run into conflicts in others. Efforts to resolve these contradictions will dominate the politics of 2016, but may delay or undermine the effectiveness of the EU's response to any one of its crises.

Uncertainty will moderate the UK sterling rally

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
The Eu

Subject Influence of Brexit on financial markets. Significance Prime Minister Boris Johnson's letter to the EU requesting another Brexit delay (although he still hopes to leave by October 31) has injected more uncertainty into financial market trading. Investors see the Brexit outcomes as binary: either a chaotic departure, triggering a dramatic sell-off in UK assets, or an orderly withdrawal, triggering a rally. Impacts The FTSE 100 index has fallen 7% since July 3 and UK equities are likely to remain unpopular as much uncertainty will persist post-Brexit. Monthly data suggest that UK GDP is on track to avoid recession in the July-September quarter, but it will struggle to stay on this track. Sterling will fall if there is a no-deal exit, offsetting trade barriers, but exporters will see little benefit amid weak global growth.

scholarly journals RUSSIA IN THE DISCOURSE OF BREXETEERS AND BREMAINERS IN THE UK

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 438-444
Author(s):  
E.V. Ananieva
Keyword(s):  
Political Culture ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Government ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

The UK EU membership referendum (2016) brought a confused result not giving the Brexiteers or the Bremainers decisive preponderance. This led to sharp divisions in the society at large, and a prolonged political crisis in Britain. Bremainers as early as at the stage of the pre-referendum campaign accused Brexiteers of being under the influence of Russia, meddling on the part of Brexit. The Bremainers initiated a series of inquiries into Russian interference to discredit the Brexiteers, putting under question the results of the referendum and the mandate of the UK government to conduct negotiations with Brussels. This confrontation went through lines of interparty divisions, and its methods went beyond the traditions and unwritten rules of the United Kingdom's political culture. The vicissitudes of inter- and intra-party infighting around the Parliamentary Intelligence and Defence Committee's report “Russia” showed that the government feared the report would influence voters in the run-up to the 2019 early general election. The investigation found no evidence of Russian interference in the referendum, nor in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum or the 2017 and 2019 parliamentary elections. Nevertheless, the “Russia” report became the basis for mutual accusations of the parties in the 2019 election campaign. London's focus on the concept of "Global Britain" indicates that the United Kingdom, regardless of the outcome of negotiations with the EU, views Russia as a strategic adversary.

The “EU Brexit” implication on a single banking license and other aspects of financial markets regulation in the UK

2016 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 468-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norman Mugarura
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Social Implications ◽  
Individual Member ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Regional Markets ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Financial Markets Regulation

Purpose The aim of the paper is to provide a review of potential Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU) and its implication on financial markets regulation in the EU and UK. It explores the terrain for financial markets regulation in the EU, pointing out how it impinges on the national legal system of EU countries and what it could mean for the UK. It navigates the legal reforms the UK will have to undertake to fill the void caused by its exit from the EU. Lastly, the paper proffers its thoughtful analysis of the reform to undertake if the UK exited the EU, both in the UK and the EU. Design/methodology/approach The paper has internalized empirical data generated by different interest groups on the implication of potential British exit from the EU on markets and other core issues which underpin the UK/EU relationship. These data were available in most major UK newspapers, academic journals and textbooks, especially in expositing conceptual and theoretical issues underpinning the paper. It has drawn comparisons with other jurisdictions, especially in East Africa, to demonstrate the inherent challenges in integration of regional markets on individual member countries. The paper also articulates other regulatory issues such as mutual recognition and the cost of Brexit on businesses in the EU/UK. Findings The findings of the paper confirm that British interests are likely to be better protected if it remains the member of the EU but could be undermined if it relinquishes its membership. Studies have been carried out by academic think tanks and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and they all indicate that British exit from the EU could be counterproductive for the UK. Contemporary global challenges need global solutions, thus Britain will still need to forge alliance with EU countries. Research limitations/implications The limitation of the paper was that there are not many comparative studies carried out on countries which have exited regional market initiatives and their experiences after that. The paper has alluded to the experience of Uganda, which quit the East African Community (EAC) in 1977 and rejoined it 23 years later. In a crucial issue like Brexit, the paper would better evaluate the potential Brexit is drawing on experiences of countries which have exited and how they have fared after that. There were not many comparable case studies on countries which have exited regional markets. Practical implications The paper discusses important practical issues relating to Brexit and its implications on the UK/EU government and economies. It is practical because it weighs in on important policy and legal issues on regulation of markets in the post-Brexit era in the UK and EU. As the UK government goes for a referendum to decide its future relationship with EU, it will need to evaluate its decisions by internalizing academic literature on Brexit, such as this paper. Social implications The paper has social implications because Brexit will affect people and markets in varied ways. It addresses pertinent issues related to the UK and its implication in the post-Brexit era on the UK/EU economies. Originality/value The paper is timely, original and a must read because it discusses pertinent issues of the potential British exit and its implication for the UK and other stakeholders in a distinctive way.

May election will guide UK business stance on 'Brexit'

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Election ◽  
Business Community ◽  
Diverse Group ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Wait And See ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject How the UK business community views the UK-EU relationship. Significance Many believe that the intervention of the business community was important in shaping the outcome of the Scottish independence referendum. However, this diverse group remains divided in its attitude towards EU membership and is likely to maintain a 'wait and see' approach until after the general election. Impacts Those in the business community that favour staying in the EU still argue that the UK-EU relationship should be reformed. Despite the wishes of some politicians, it is highly unlikely that business will stay silent on the question of a referendum. Nevertheless, they will most likely wait to ramp up their lobbying until after the May 2015 general election.

UK election result lowers risk of EU exit

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
International Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Parliament ◽  
Policy Challenge ◽  
To Receive ◽  
The Eu

Significance The election of a Conservative-only government will ensure broad continuity in both economic and international policy, as well as more stable government than had been expected. The new Parliament is likely to last its full five-year term. There will be a referendum by the end of 2017 on the United Kingdom's EU membership, but the likelihood of a UK vote to stay in has risen. Scotland may represent the new government's principal policy challenge. Impacts Financial markets are likely to receive the outcome with relief, given that the likely alternative was pronounced and atypical uncertainty. The greatest risk of 'Brexit' is now a renewed euro-area crisis harming the EU economy and UK public opinion. Serious bargaining over a future UK constitutional settlement may be deferred until after the Scottish Parliament election in May 2016. In the medium term, the Labour Party is likely to conclude that it needs to return to a more centrist, business-friendly, 'Blairite' stance. The extent to which the result defied pollsters' and forecasters' predictions could prompt significant change in the business.

Some Cameron demands will meet EU resistance

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Special Treatment ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance Cameron is gauging his counterparts' positions before presenting his reform agenda at the June 25-26 EU summit. He seeks the other EU states' support for a package of reforms that will enable him to claim that he has secured a better deal for the United Kingdom in the EU, and thus campaign for an 'in' vote in the EU membership referendum he has promised by end-2017. Cameron is seeking to build backing for some reforms that would apply across the EU, rather than only seek special treatment for the United Kingdom. However, some of the reforms he has mooted are unacceptable to many other EU states. Impacts The greatest impact of the reforms that Cameron secures could be on the scale of the split in the Conservative Party over EU membership. Some of Cameron's reforms could bring important changes across the bloc, as well as set precedents for other member states. The UK renegotiation will generate bargaining between member states that will affect their negotiation of other issues.

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