Islamist movements will sustain popular appeal in Gulf

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Political Debate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
Popular Appeal ◽  
Sectarian Conflict ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
State Group ◽  
Islamist Movements

Subject Islamist movements in the smaller GCC states. Significance The rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Tunisia in the wake of the 2011 Arab uprisings placed political Islam at the centre of political debate in the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) bloc. Qatar's support for Islamists abroad was unacceptable to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) who consider the group to pose a serious threat to both the regional status quo and their domestic monopoly on power. Local Islamist movements remain a force within the smaller GCC states of Qatar, Kuwait and UAE. Governments have significantly adapted their approach to them in response to the Arab uprisings and the subsequent rise of the Islamic State group (ISG). Impacts Differences over Islamist movements impede GCC cooperation on regional policy and security. Longer-term, Islamists would be one of the main beneficiaries of any constitutional reforms that open up political space in the GCC. Sectarian conflict in the region and tougher economic conditions at home may reinforce conservative religious sentiment in the Gulf. The UAE will maintain the toughest policies, while Kuwait and Qatar will pursue more lenient approaches.

United Arab Emirates will maintain strong stability

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Strong Stability ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
State Group

Subject UAE politics and internal security. Significance In a turbulent region, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a rare island of stability. Yet rising concern about Iran, the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamic State group (ISG) has led to mass arrests and an assertive foreign policy in recent years. The internal stability outlook will also be determined by leadership transitions in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the relationship between these two emirates, and popular reactions to economic adjustments to low oil prices. Impacts There is a small but real risk of terrorist attacks, but any incidents are unlikely to harm the business environment. Abu Dhabi and Dubai's differences over Iran will remain challenging in the post-sanctions environment. Differences with Saudi Arabia over the role of the Muslim Brotherhood in Yemen could become serious if southern Yemen tries to secede.

Turkish detente will bolster Saudi regional policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Policy ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Regional Position ◽  
State Group ◽  
Military Campaign ◽  
The Military

Subject Saudi-Turkish relations. Significance After ties soured in the wake of the 2011 Arab uprisings, the Saudi and Turkish leaderships are managing bilateral relations better in order to combat rising regional challenges. These include a potential agreement on Iran's nuclear programme, the expansion of the Islamic State group (ISG) and the stalemate in the Syrian rebel campaign to unseat President Bashar al-Assad. In particular, relations have improved at the leadership level, with the death of Saudi King Abdallah enabling a symbolic turning of a new page in the kingdom's foreign policy and a toning down in the kingdom's hostility towards the Muslim Brotherhood. Impacts Saudi support for the Sisi regime could revive tensions with Turkey, particularly if Egypt intensifies its anti-Islamist crackdown further. Despite common concerns over ISG, both Turkey and Riyadh will limit their involvement in the military campaign owing to domestic concerns. The kingdom's change in tone towards the Brotherhood could strengthen its regional position by improving ties with key Islamist groups. Improved diplomacy could boost already strong trade ties.

Islamic State seeks sectarian conflict in Lebanon

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sectarian Conflict ◽  
Palestinian Refugee ◽  
State Group

Significance Islamic State group (ISG) claimed responsibility for the blast, which killed 44 people, making it the largest terrorist attack in Lebanon since 1990 and the first of its kind since June 2014. Many Lebanese now fear a new wave of bomb attacks by jihadists in response to Hezbollah's intervention in Syria. Impacts ISG offensive will stoke Shia-Sunni tensions, and discrimination towards Syrian and Palestinian refugee communities. An intensified anti-jihadist crackdown risks aggravating Lebanon's Sunni community and undermining trust in the security forces. Hezbollah will target more of its Syria operations in coming weeks against ISG in order to avenge the bombings. Further bombings will dampen Lebanon's prospects for economic recovery.

Egypt's Sinai smuggling links Islamic State to Hamas

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gaza Strip ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Security Force ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Umbrella Organisation ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
The Gaza Strip ◽  
State Group

Subject Links between Hamas and ISG. Significance Egyptian and Israeli authorities claim that the Islamic State group (ISG) in Sinai is receiving support from Hamas, the Palestinian militant group ruling the Gaza Strip. Hamas political leaders and spokesmen deny any connection. ISG and Hamas disagree over ideology, governance and fighting Israel, and Hamas often suppresses ISG-inspired groups in Gaza. ISG propaganda criticises Hamas and its umbrella-organisation, the Muslim Brotherhood. Yet there are strategic reasons for a transactional relationship between Hamas and ISG Sinai. Impacts Support for ISG Sinai by Hamas's military wing complicates efforts, promoted by Saudi Arabia, for Egyptian-Hamas reconciliation. Egyptian politicians will use Hamas as a scapegoat for security force losses in ISG Sinai attacks. Hamas forces will monitor the border with Sinai more closely to watch for infiltration by jihadists.

Middle East Islamist movements fragment under pressure

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Islam ◽  
The Political ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Sudden Rise ◽  
The One ◽  
State Group ◽  
Islamist Movements

Significance Almost two years on from Morsi's removal from office in 2013 mainstream Islamist movements in the region find themselves caught between an authoritarian crackdown led by Egypt and the Gulf on the one hand, and the sudden rise of Islamic State group (ISG) on the other. With political participation discredited, these two pressures are forcing Muslim Brotherhood-inspired movements to revise ideology and strategy as they compete to maintain and expand their constituencies. Impacts Mainstream Islamists will remain a significant political force in the region, but take years to regroup. Long-term stability will depend on allowing non-violent Islamists access to the political sphere. Younger Islamists will be increasingly attracted to radical ideologies. Egypt's slide into a more oppressive police state will continue. Saudi Arabia has put aside differences with Qatar and Turkey over political Islam for now -- but the dispute could resurface.

Geopolitical tensions will add to UAE cyber threats

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Cyber Security ◽  
Cyber Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Home Depot ◽  
Virus Attack ◽  
State Group ◽  
Cyber Conflict

Subject The threats and capabilities of UAE in cyber security. Significance Concerns over cyber security are mounting with high-profile commercial breaches on companies such as TV5 Monde, Sony Pictures Entertainment, Target and Home Depot, and disclosures on nation-state capabilities and actions, such as the Stuxnet attack on Iranian centrifuges at Natanz in 2010 and the Shamoon virus attack on Saudi Aramco in 2012. The combination of rising cyber crime and geopolitical cyber conflict, not least that emanating from the Islamic State group (ISG), alarms the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as it seeks to enhance its position as a financial and logistics hub. Impacts Cyber-savvy ISG sympathisers are likely to conduct further cyber attacks to avenge the US-led air campaign against ISG. ISG-sympathetic insiders may be an even higher threat to businesses and governments. Managed Security Services Providers (MSSP) will be the primary beneficiary of moves to increase cyber security.

Arab youth opinion points to instability, reform risks

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Youth Population ◽  
State Group ◽  
Regional Governments

Subject Arab youth opinion. Significance Arab youth views Islamic State group (ISG), terrorism and unemployment as the top obstacles facing the Middle East today, according to a new survey released on April 12 by a United Arab Emirates (UAE)-based PR firm, ASDA'A Burson-Marsteller. With the failure of regional governments to meet the aspirations of the region's large youth population contributing to the 2011 uprisings, the attitudes of today's youth expressed in the survey will shape the outlook for stabilisation, security and economic reform. Impacts Reconciliation between Riyadh and Tehran will be a fundamental first step to the region's stabilisation. Concerns about unemployment and falling living standards will drive social unrest and recruitment to militant organisations. Strong anti-US opinion will complicate Washington's engagement in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.

Sober policies are key to Islamic State risk in India

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Group Activity ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Effort ◽  
Indian Men ◽  
State Group

Subject Islamic State group activity in India. Significance Indian authorities have thus far arrested 20 suspected Islamic State group (ISG) operatives, including most recently a cleric accused of spreading violent propaganda on behalf of the Sunni radical organisation based in Iraq and Syria. The arrests are part of a wider crackdown, which has included incarcerations of Indian Muslims accused of ISG links, and separately the arrest by Syrian and the United Arab Emirates' authorities of eight Indian men travelling to joining ISG. At least 23 Indians are said to have already joined the group, with two reportedly killed in fighting. Impacts ISG-linked activity is likely to have limited electoral salience, at least for the time being. It could acquire some prominence if arrests selectively target Muslims because of their religion rather than actions. Indian participation in any international effort against ISG risks intensifying the domestic radicalisation risk.

Jihadists set to stoke sectarian violence in Lebanon

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Refugee Population ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Sectarian Violence ◽  
Syrian Refugee ◽  
Sectarian Conflict ◽  
State Group

Significance The conflict has had an increasing impact on Lebanon since it began in 2011, in the form of sectarian political violence, massive refugee inflows, a deepening government crisis and cross-border movements of fighters. The spillover has destabilised Lebanon's delicate sectarian balance and created an institutional vacuum, with the country lacking an elected government since April 2013, and a president since May 2014. In particular, the emergence of Islamic State group (ISG) as a major force in Syria, and its brief occupation of Lebanese territory, has highlighted the threat of an escalated sectarian conflict on Lebanese soil. Impacts If jihadists capture towns or villages in the Bekaa Valley, they could carry out massacres, and spark fighting in other parts of Lebanon. Fragmentation of the army on Sunni-Shia lines would undermine security and create a vacuum for ISG to step into. ISG could coordinate a campaign inside Lebanon with al-Qaida's Jabhat al-Nusra (JN). Sectarian tensions could help radicalise the Syrian refugee population, strengthening ISG's presence.

Islamic State group has reinvigorated global jihadism

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
The Us ◽  
State Group ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The past year witnessed further jihadi gains amid the political turmoil in the Middle East that has followed the Arab uprisings -- most significantly the Islamic State Group (ISG)'s conquest of Sunni provinces Iraq in June and proclamation of a caliphate. However, the advance is not even across the board; the threat remains centred on regional targets, more than those in the West. More spillover from a metastasising jihadism in the Middle East is to be expected, including sporadic high-profile attacks in the West. Impacts The international reputation of Syria's Assad regime will gradually improve as the West remains focused on the threat of the ISG. Authoritarian regimes will exploit the jihadist threat to justify internal security crackdowns and delay democratic reforms. US-Iranian collaboration against ISG will reinforce the perception of an anti-Sunni conspiracy -- a key feature of jihadi propaganda. The US shale oil revolution will continue to offset disruption to oil supplies by the ISG. Tourism in affected countries, particularly Egypt, will continue to suffer.

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