NLD will push Myanmar banking reform in 2016

Subject Myanmar banking reform outlook. Significance Myanmar's central bank will issue additional banking licences to an undisclosed number of foreign banks in 2016, it announced on December 14. This is part of the wider effort to modernise and build the capacity of Myanmar's banking sector. Impacts Greater banking sector modernisation and liberalisation would aid domestic business sector growth. International donor support will be needed to help Myanmar's banking sector development. Banking sector reform requires the support of Myanmar's central bank personnel, and consumer and foreign investor confidence.

Subject Iran’s banking sector in urgent need of reform. Significance Tehran's banks face major corruption scandals, and a complex policy environment. In July 2016, the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) announced major plans to reform the country’s banking system in line with global standards. Iranian banks have been cut off from the international financial system since 2012, owing to sanctions. After the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran expected that the lifting of sanctions would reverse this situation. However, despite interest among Central Asian and Turkish banks, progress has been limited. Impacts European banks will be slow to engage with Iran, fearing unpredictable US penalties. Differing US and Iranian interpretations of sanctions lifting under the nuclear deal may come up before the dispute resolution mechanism. Macroeconomic strains will put depreciatory pressure on the currency. If President Hassan Rouhani fails to win re-election in May, the chances of banking reform would be much lower.


Subject Banking sector prospects. Significance Private sector banks in Ecuador enjoyed strong double-digit loan growth last year -- a reflection of the troubled economy’s gradual emergence from recession. That economic recovery, and the pragmatic willingness of President Lenin Moreno to work with the private sector, is generating optimism regarding the prospects of the country’s banking sector. Impacts Strong bank lending is key for economic recovery, allowing firms to increase investments and consumers to spend more. Taking the E-money system from the central bank shows Moreno’s pragmatism vis-a-vis the private sector. The planned sale of state-owned lender Banco del Pacifico could attract the interest of foreign banks.


Significance The move, however, has proven controversial, generating a backlash over its potential impact on commercial banks and the central bank (Banxico), which sees it as a threat to its autonomy. The proposals come amid an unusual surge in remittances flowing into the country. Impacts Any legal change that is seen as affecting Banxico’s autonomy would damage investor confidence significantly. AMLO may stop legislation changes if they cause a depreciation of the peso. Mexico’s economy looks set to become far more reliant on remittance income than it has been in past years.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Babajide Oyewo

PurposeThis study investigates firm attributes (namely level of capitalisation, scope of operation, organisational structure, organisational lifecycle, systemic importance and size) affecting the robustness of enterprise risk management (ERM) practice, the extent to which ERM affects the performance of banks and the impact of ERM on the long-term sustainability of banks in Nigeria. This was against the backdrop that the 2012 banking reform was a major regulatory intervention that mainstreamed ERM in the Nigerian banking sector.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed a mixed methodology of content, trend and quantitative analyses. Ex post facto research design was deployed to analyse performance differential of banks, with respect to the implementation of ERM, over a 10-year period (2008–2017). A disclosure checklist developed from the COSO ERM integrated framework was used to assess the robustness of ERM by content-analysing divulgence on risk management in published annual reports. The banking reform periods were dichotomised into pre- (2008–2012) and post- (2013–2017) reform periods. Jonckheere–Terpstra test, independent sample t-test and Mann–Whitney test were applied to analyse a total of 1,036 firm-year observations over the period 2008–2017.FindingsResult shows that bank attributes significantly affecting the robustness of risk management practice are level of capitalisation, scope of operation, systemic importance and size. Performance of banks improved slightly during the post-2012 banking reform period. This suggests that as banks consolidate on the gains of ERM, benefits of the regulatory policy on risk management may be realised in the long run. Result also shows that ERM enhances long-term performance, connoting that effective risk management could serve as a competitive strategy for surviving turbulence that typically characterises the banking sector.Practical implicationsThe emergence of level of capitalisation, scope of operation, systemic importance and size as determinants of ERM provides empirical evidence to support the practice of reviewing the capital requirements for banking business from time to time by regulatory authorities (i.e. recapitalisation policy) as a strategy for managing systemic risk. Top management of banks may consider instituting mechanisms that will ensure risk management is given prominence. A proactive approach must be taken to convert risks to opportunities by banks and other financial institutions, going forward, to cope with the vicissitudes of financial intermediation.Originality/valueThe originality of the study stems from the consideration that it provides some new insights into the impact of ERM on banks long-term sustainability in a developing country. The study also contributes to knowledge by exposing the factors determining the robustness of risk management practice. The study developed a checklist for assessing ERM practice from annual reports and other risk management disclosure documents. The paper also adds to the scarce literature on risk governance and risk management.


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
Author(s):  
Goran Mitrović ◽  
Živko Erceg

The monetary policy of Bosnia andHerzegovina is rather limited because it is basedon the principles of a currency boardcharacterized by the impossibility of implementingthe basic monetary policy instruments incomparison with the monetary policy of theEuropean Union. However, the constant presenceof European integrations should point the need fora more drastic change in the monetary policy ofBosnia and Herzegovina. By entering theEuropean Monetary Union (EMU), the monetaryterritory of Bosnia and Herzegovina will becomeone of the branches of the European Central Bank(ECB). In addition, it is not difficult to concludewhy the Law about the Central Bank of Bosnia andHerzegovina has been adopted with the first lawsof the Dayton Agreement, if it is known that thelargest part of the banking system, and thereforethe financial market, is owned by foreign banks.This work will point out the significance of theCentral Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as oneof the most important factors for maintaining thepermanent liquidity of the banking sector inBosnia and Herzegovina. The possibilities andlimitations of the Central Bank of Bosnia andHerzegovina will be determined, with theassumption of macroeconomic sustainability overa longer period of time. The need of reforming thebanking system in Bosnia and Herzegovina will beanalyzed through the constant implementation ofthe Basel standards with the increasingparticipation of foreign banks in the Bosnia andHerzegovina. It will be determined the impact ofthe implementation of the Basel III in the bankingindustry in Bosnia and Herzegovina and itsconsequences on the banking and economicsystem.models, on the ways of financing theelimination of adverse consequences of naturaldisasters.


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 185-207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sin-Yu Ho ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the macroeconomic drivers of stock market development in Hong Kong during the period 1992Q4-2016Q3. Specifically, it investigates the impact of banking sector development, economic growth, inflation rate, exchange rate, trade openness and stock market liquidity on stock market development. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses quarterly time-series data covering the period 1992Q4-2016Q3, which have been obtained from various reliable sources. The study uses the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing procedure to identify both the long- and short-run macroeconomic drivers of stock market development in Hong Kong. Findings We find that banking sector development and economic growth have positive impacts on stock market development, whereas the inflation rate and the exchange rate have negative impacts on stock market development both in the long and short run. In addition, the results show that trade openness has a positive long-run impact but a negative short-run impact on stock market development. Originality/value Despite the phenomenal growth of stock market in Hong Kong, there are, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, no relevant studies on the macroeconomic drivers of stock market development in Hong Kong. Therefore, this paper endeavours to enrich the literature by examining the macroeconomic drivers of stock market development in Hong Kong during the period 1992Q4-2016Q3.


2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasin Mahmood ◽  
Maqsood Ahmad ◽  
Faisal Rizwan ◽  
Abdul Rashid

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of banking sector concentration, banking sector development and equity market development in corporate financial flexibility (FF). Design/methodology/approach The study used annual data for the period from 1991 to 2014 to examine the relationship between banking sector concentration, banking sector development, equity market development and corporate FF; hypotheses were tested using an unbalanced panel logistic regression model. Findings The paper provides empirical insights into the relationships between macroeconomic factors and corporate FF. The results suggest a substantial change in FF across firms; banking sector concentration discourages firms from borrowing, leading to the reduction of corporate borrowing, consequently an increase in FF can be observed. Banking sector development facilitates debt financing, hence reducing FF. Equity market development also has a positive impact on FF, as it is a substitute for debt financing. Practical implications The banking sector is an important provider of capital to business entities. A concentrated banking system discourages the provision of capital to firms; hence regulators have to take appropriate measures to resolve the problem of a reduced supply of capital. Banking sector development facilitates the provision of capital; further development may reduce bank lending rates to firms. Equity market development positively affects FF; hence, firm managers can use equity financing to resume FF. By following pecking order theory, managers use internal sources to finance value-maximizing investment projects, debt and issue shares as the last choice to get financing. When borrowing capacity is depleted, managers can obtain further funds by issuing stocks. Originality/value FF is an emergent area of research in advanced countries, while in developing economies, it is in the initial stages. Little work is available in this area to find the impact of banking sector concentration, banking sector development and equity market development, therefore, this study fills this gap in the existing literature.


Subject Prospects for the banking sector. Significance The government is buying a 30% stake in the Austrian lender Erste Bank under a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The MoU signifies a volte-face by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose relationship with foreign-owned banks has been fraught with difficulties since the imposition of a levy on financial institutions in 2010 that drove down earnings and achieved notoriety as one of the highest taxes of its kind in Europe. The government has pledged to reduce the bank tax during 2016-19. Impacts The MoU may not redefine government relations with foreign banks, but could mean more activity on the market by institutional investors. Banks will clean up balance sheets, adopting a 'wait and see' strategy until FX debt relief peters out and the bank tax starts to fall. A return to profitability is unlikely before 2016; much depends on an uptake in corporate and household loans denominated in local currency.


Subject Measures to keep Russia's banking system sustainable. Significance In 2015, the majority of Russian banks recorded operating losses, with the exception of Sberbank. Banks had to repay foreign currency-denominated loans whose cost rose as the ruble fell in value. Access to further foreign loans was severely constrained by Western sanctions, the cost of domestic borrowing was high and consumers' real incomes declined. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) continues to support the sector by offering refinancing facilities and capital support for systemically important banks while shutting down banks engaged in high-risk activity. Impacts Western sanctions continuing into 2017 will worsen investor perceptions of risk. CBR intervention will avoid a collapse in depositor confidence. Geopolitical isolation will limit banking sector development.


Subject Outlook for the banking sector. Significance The two-year recession has made Brazil’s public- and private-sector banks increasingly risk-averse in their lending to households and companies. This is likely to persist in 2017, owing to a very uncertain and fragile economic recovery, high unemployment and elevated levels of private-sector debt. Impacts Less-aggressive lending by national state banks will help public finances and give private banks a chance to increase market share. Spanish Santander will be the only foreign bank capable of competing in Brazil’s retail banking segment in the coming years. Other foreign banks lacking the necessary scale for profitable retail banking will focus on other niches.


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