Israel, Hamas may slide into new Gaza conflict in 2016
Significance The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) are now searching intensively for new tunnels on the Israeli side of the border, while Israel's leadership is warning Hamas of consequences if the organisation decides to use them to carry out an attack inside Israel. Impacts If a new war breaks out, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will try to broaden his coalition. He will avoid launching a full-scale war for fear of Israeli casualties and the lack of a credible alternative to Hamas rule in Gaza. Washington will call for restraint, but is not likely to admonish Israel publicly, as the United States approaches presidential elections. Prospects for reconciliation between Israel and Turkey will be set back. Egypt and the PA will pay lip service to Gaza's plight, but will not take any actions to help their opponents, Hamas.