Proxy president may mean inefficient policy in Myanmar

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
National Government ◽  
Vice Presidents ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Presidential Politics ◽  
Political Interests ◽  
National League ◽  
The Military ◽  
Made In ◽  
Regulatory Reforms

Subject Myanmar presidential politics and the outlook for the transfer of power. Significance On March 10, nominations will be made in the Union parliament for Myanmar's next president and two vice presidents. Following this, the National League for Democracy (NLD) will assume the national government. Impacts The prospect of two presidential successions before 2020 may constrain regulatory reforms and worry investors. The NLD may put a Suu Kyi presidency ahead of ethnic peace, inadvertently alienating ethnic groups. The military will push back against any attempts to undermine its economic or political interests.

Myanmar's partial ceasefire faces precarious future

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for Myanmar's ceasefire process after eight ethnic armed groups agreed to sign up. Significance Myanmar's government will sign a ceasefire agreement on October 15. Despite the deal's "nationwide" title it covers only eight of 15 ethnic armed groups, raising security and political concerns ahead of national elections on November 8. Impacts The government will push for current non-signatory ethnic armed groups to join the ceasefire. The National League for Democracy will foster links with ethnic groups, anticipating the post-election period. The military vote may be used to manipulate the election's result.

Myanmar peace effort could falter after March

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Aung San Suu Kyi ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Military

Subject Prospects for the peace process with ethnic groups under the incoming National League for Democracy government. Significance Peace negotiations between the government, ethnic armed groups (EAGs) and the military (Tatmadaw) were discussed when National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi met Tatmadaw chief Min Aung Hlaing on January 25. This followed the Union Peace Conference (UPC) round held oon January 12-16, which also involved outgoing President Thein Sein, and which marked Suu Kyi's official debut in the peace process. Impacts Progressing peace in Rakhine State could help Myanmar reduce Islamic State group threats. To protect its interests, the military could stymie peace talks by restarting conflict in ethnic areas. The NLD may soften its stance on federalism to keep the military aboard, but likely thus alienating ethnic groups.

Myanmar's opposition looks to 2020

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Action ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National League ◽  
Opposition Group ◽  
The Military

Significance The National League for Democracy (NLD), which will soon form its first government, holds 390 of the 664 seats in parliament's two houses, or 58.7% after taking account of the 25% of seats reserved for the military. The former governing party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), is now the largest elected opposition group with 42 seats, or 6.3%. The NLD's majority constricts parliamentary political opposition. Impacts Ethnicity-based political parties may perform strongly in the 2020 election. Other 'progressive' political parties could undermine the NLD down to 2020. There could be more use of direct political action, including protests.

Myanmar’s garment sector will struggle to endure

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Illegal Migration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Garment Workers ◽  
Garment Factory ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Eu

Subject Myanmar's garment industry. Significance A strike at a Chinese-owned garment factory that began in August has just been resolved. In early October, the EU said it was considering withdrawing Myanmar’s generalised scheme of preferences (GSP) tariff status in response to the country’s human rights record in ethnic minority areas. Impacts Garment workers could be prompted to seek illegal migration to neighbouring countries such as Thailand in search of employment. The National League for Democracy, which controls the civilian portion of the government, will lose support ahead of the 2020 elections. The military is likely to be hit by more US sanctions over the Rohingya crisis.

Myanmar’s ethnic parties will unite as polls approach

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Minorities ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Parties ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Myanmar's political landscape ahead of next year's elections. Significance As the next general election appears on the horizon, parliament last month began debating possible amendments to the constitution. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), which controls the civilian portion of government, wants to reduce the military’s reserved parliamentary quota. Meanwhile, the NLD faces increased criticism from parties representing the country’s ethnic minorities. Impacts There is unlikely to be any progress in the country's peace process, aimed at ending conflicts between the military and ethnic armed groups. The military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party will aim to enhance its internal organisation. As attention turns to the polls, the government will devote even fewer resources than currently to resolving the Rohingya refugee crisis.

Myanmar six-party talks to boost ethnic peace process

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Steering Committee ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Leadership Crisis ◽  
Dialogue Process ◽  
National League

Subject The outlook for subsequent rounds of six-party talks. Significance Six-party talks covering constitutional reform, the November national legislative elections and ongoing negotiations between the central government and armed ethnic groups were held on April 10. Despite the attendees' divergent agendas, this new dialogue process represents a steering committee for Myanmar's evolving political establishment. Impacts The constitutional reform referendum will probably be delayed. A leadership crisis within the National League for Democracy could follow the 2015 polls. Western support is likely to shift somewhat from Suu Kyi towards the wider electoral process.

Myanmar UN court case will be least of Suu Kyi’s woes

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Court Case ◽  
International Court Of Justice ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Court Of Justice ◽  
International Court ◽  
Aung San Suu Kyi ◽  
The Icj ◽  
National League ◽  
The Hague ◽  
The Military

Subject Problems facing State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. Significance The UN's International Court of Justice (ICJ) next week begins hearing a case in which Myanmar is accused of genocide against the Rohingya people. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi plans to lead a delegation to The Hague to defend her country. Meanwhile, her National League for Democracy (NLD) is stepping up preparations for next year’s general election. Impacts If the ICJ issues an initial ruling against Myanmar, foreign investors yet to shun the country may start pulling out. As Myanmar becomes increasingly isolated, it will lean more heavily on China. The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party is unlikely to gain much electoral ground at the 2020 polls.

Myanmar's political civilianisation may face 2015 test

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Interest ◽  
The State ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
Military Rule ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Aung San Suu Kyi ◽  
National League ◽  
The Military

Subject The outlook for Myanmar's political transition from military rule. Significance Myanmar holds elections in late 2015, the first since exiting full military rule; the Tatmadaw (military) is relinquishing power, reinterpreting its relationship with the state. Nonetheless, it remains politically significant. Reported today, President Thein Sein asserts that through "being involved in national politics" the Tatamdaw "is assisting in the flourishing of democracy". The opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) and leader Aung San Suu Kyi disagree, although Suu Kyi underlines building constructive links with the Tatmadaw, as she told an NLD rally on March 1. Impacts As it leaves politics, the Tatmadaw's leadership will seek a new institutional focus. This will probably see force capability modernisation and efforts to enhance troops' professionalism. Tatmadaw leaders will try to balance their perceptions of the national interest with pro-democracy feeling in the military. Stakeholders will cooperate with the Tatmadaw as Myanmar transitions politically; the military will reciprocate where it agrees.

Myanmar business reforms face military obstacles

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Tax Base ◽  
Sector Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private Sector Development ◽  
Business Interests ◽  
National League ◽  
The Military

Subject Military business interests and economic reform in Myanmar. Significance The National League for Democracy (NLD) wants to enable greater competition in Myanmar's business environment. Foreign attention is focused on the prospects for private sector development, privatisation of state-owned enterprises and the role 'crony-owned' conglomerates will play. However, military-owned businesses also need to be factored in -- both in regards as to whether they are 'crowding out' the private sector and whether the military itself will constrain business sector reform. Impacts The military's economic interests do not cover all sectors; earlier reform may be possible in non-military areas. A political tussle is likely over NLD plans to rebalance public spending. According to its manifesto, the NLD will broaden Myanmar's tax base while lowering taxes.

Myanmar will struggle to curb corruption

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Full Control ◽  
National League ◽  
The Military

Subject Myanmar's anti-corruption measures. Significance Myanmar is introducing new anti-corruption legislation. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) has been in full control of the civilian portion of government for just over two years. Impacts Myanmar will find it increasingly difficult to find individuals qualified for senior government positions. The military portion of government will sustain its influence on politics and the economy. President Win Myint would only exert more influence in government if Suu Kyi were for any reason to lose power.

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