Myanmar’s ethnic parties will unite as polls approach

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Minorities ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Parties ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Myanmar's political landscape ahead of next year's elections. Significance As the next general election appears on the horizon, parliament last month began debating possible amendments to the constitution. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), which controls the civilian portion of government, wants to reduce the military’s reserved parliamentary quota. Meanwhile, the NLD faces increased criticism from parties representing the country’s ethnic minorities. Impacts There is unlikely to be any progress in the country's peace process, aimed at ending conflicts between the military and ethnic armed groups. The military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party will aim to enhance its internal organisation. As attention turns to the polls, the government will devote even fewer resources than currently to resolving the Rohingya refugee crisis.

Myanmar armed groups eye leverage through 2020 poll

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China And India ◽  
Ethnic Parties ◽  
National League ◽  
Step Down ◽  
The Government

Subject Situation regarding Myanmar's ethnic armed organisations. Significance The government and military in Myanmar and leaders of ten ethnically based guerrilla groups that have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) last week pledged to step up their commitment to the peace process, to transform the NCA into a lasting settlement. Several other armed groups are still in conflict with the state, notwithstanding occasional ceasefires. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) will very likely retain control over the civilian part of government following this year’s general election, but ethnic parties will probably make parliamentary gains at its expense. Impacts Suu Kyi is very unlikely to face pressure to step down even if the NLD’s parliamentary majority is heavily reduced. Even with increased seat share in parliament, ethnic parties will struggle to influence policy. China and India will double down on their support for the Myanmar military.

Myanmar's partial ceasefire faces precarious future

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for Myanmar's ceasefire process after eight ethnic armed groups agreed to sign up. Significance Myanmar's government will sign a ceasefire agreement on October 15. Despite the deal's "nationwide" title it covers only eight of 15 ethnic armed groups, raising security and political concerns ahead of national elections on November 8. Impacts The government will push for current non-signatory ethnic armed groups to join the ceasefire. The National League for Democracy will foster links with ethnic groups, anticipating the post-election period. The military vote may be used to manipulate the election's result.

Myanmar peace effort could falter after March

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Aung San Suu Kyi ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Military

Subject Prospects for the peace process with ethnic groups under the incoming National League for Democracy government. Significance Peace negotiations between the government, ethnic armed groups (EAGs) and the military (Tatmadaw) were discussed when National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi met Tatmadaw chief Min Aung Hlaing on January 25. This followed the Union Peace Conference (UPC) round held oon January 12-16, which also involved outgoing President Thein Sein, and which marked Suu Kyi's official debut in the peace process. Impacts Progressing peace in Rakhine State could help Myanmar reduce Islamic State group threats. To protect its interests, the military could stymie peace talks by restarting conflict in ethnic areas. The NLD may soften its stance on federalism to keep the military aboard, but likely thus alienating ethnic groups.

Myanmar will ignore West and push on towards new polls

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Military Regime ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National League ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Military ◽  
Public Opposition

Significance The army detained Suu Kyi and other National League for Democracy (NLD) officials on February 1, claiming fraud in the November 8 general election in which the NLD increased its parliamentary majority. It has declared a one-year state of emergency and promises to hold fresh polls thereafter. Impacts The coup will slow the progress of the peace process designed to end conflicts between the military and ethnically based armed groups. Naypyidaw is even less likely than before to cooperate with Dhaka over repatriating Rohingya refugees residing in Bangladeshi camps. Public opposition to the military regime will spike if the authorities fail to maintain a downward trend in COVID-19 infections.

Myanmar Panglong meeting will be modest success

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dialogue ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Adequate Response ◽  
National League ◽  
International Donors ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Reconciliation ◽  
Sticking Point

Subject Outlook for Myanmar's Panglong conference, beginning on August 31. Significance Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD)-led government will convene the '21st Century Panglong' peace conference on August 31; today, government, political party and ethnic representatives are reviewing the political dialogue framework for the conference and seeking to finalise agreements, while yesterday a Panglong convening committee was assembled. Billed as the next step in Myanmar's national reconciliation and peace process, the name invokes the 1947 Panglong conference. However, critical questions remain over the 2016 meeting's scope and attendees, and whether it will provide an adequate response to Myanmar's protracted civil conflicts. Impacts A successful conference would bolster the government politically, and encourage international donors and investors. Excluding civil society groups from future conferences could exacerbate frictions. The talks will likely reveal tough remaining obstacles to a true nation-wide ceasefire, even if non-signatory EAGs are included. Chinese influence over the peace process will be a sticking point, potentially igniting nationalist concern.

Myanmar peace process could collapse post-2020

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Military Personnel ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Ethnic Minority Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
China And India ◽  
National League

Significance The meeting, which will be the third in the process so far, has been delayed due to disagreements among ethnic minority groups, including ethnic minority armed groups (EMAGs). Myanmar’s next general election is due in 2020, when State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) will be seeking to retain control of the civilian portion of government. Impacts While ongoing violence may dissuade Western investors, China and India will see opportunity rather than risk in Myanmar. China will encourage EMAGs to negotiate peace. Myanmar military personnel will face US sanctions over attacks on Rohingya Muslims.

Myanmar talks have not lessened two-track deal risks

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
The Government

Significance The talks are part of the effort to end decades of fighting between Myanmar's military (Tatmadaw) and various ethnic minority armed groups (EMAGs). Impacts Myanmar's government will need further Chinese support to bring north-eastern EMAGs back into the peace process. Vested economic interests will likely complicate reaching any peace deal. The government will have difficulty securing new NCA signatories while managing ties with the FPNCC. Pressure will grow for greater civil society involvement in the Panglong process, including media, hitherto barred.

Myanmar’s garment sector will struggle to endure

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Illegal Migration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Garment Workers ◽  
Garment Factory ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Eu

Subject Myanmar's garment industry. Significance A strike at a Chinese-owned garment factory that began in August has just been resolved. In early October, the EU said it was considering withdrawing Myanmar’s generalised scheme of preferences (GSP) tariff status in response to the country’s human rights record in ethnic minority areas. Impacts Garment workers could be prompted to seek illegal migration to neighbouring countries such as Thailand in search of employment. The National League for Democracy, which controls the civilian portion of the government, will lose support ahead of the 2020 elections. The military is likely to be hit by more US sanctions over the Rohingya crisis.

Sudan may shift to containment of Two Areas conflict

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Conflict Resolution ◽  
Humanitarian Assistance ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Liberation Movement ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Conflict resolution in Sudan's Two Areas. Significance Peace talks on February 1-4 between the government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/North (SPLM/N) led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu failed to reach a relatively limited deal on a cessation of hostilities and provision of humanitarian assistance. While many outside observers had held high hopes for the talks, the outcome suggests that, even if conflict may remain limited for now, peace is a long way off. Impacts Hilu’s attempts to extend collaboration with other opposition forces, especially Darfur armed groups, will have little material impact. The government will use the military lull to seek outside patronage to bolster the economy and defuse austerity protests. Humanitarian conditions in the Two Areas will continue to worsen.

Sudan’s partial peace deal builds positive momentum

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Limited Resources ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Direct Role ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Liberation Movement ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Military ◽  
Significant Milestone

Significance The deal represents a significant milestone in both the peace process and the wider transition. However, it remains only a partial peace, given the absence of the main armed groups in Darfur (the Sudan Liberation Movement/Abdel Wahid al-Nur (SLM/AW)) and the ‘Two Areas’ (the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North/Abdel Aziz al-Hilu (SPLM-N/al-Hilu)). Impacts The prime minister may seek a more direct role in finalising the peace process, at the expense of Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo ‘Himedti’. Integration of rebel groups will expand the bloated military, already a major drain on limited resources. Sharing of natural resource revenues may spur tensions with the military, whose affiliated companies control major mines in conflict areas.

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