Commodity woes and drought will hit Mozambique growth

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
South African ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Food ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
Northern Areas ◽  
The Government ◽  
Recent Attack ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Economic outlook for Mozambique. Significance South African investor SacOil Holdings last week formalised an agreement allowing work to proceed on a 6-billion-dollar, 2,600-kilometre natural gas pipeline from northern Mozambique to South Africa. While providing a boost for the Mozambique government's longer-term plans to develop its liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector, it will do little help the country's economic prospects for 2016, which are weakened by drought and low prices for its main exports. Impacts The recent attack by RENAMO militants in Manica province will push the government to increase troops in central and northern areas. This could lead to an escalation of violence, resulting in some population displacement to neighbouring Malawi. Resulting disruptions to agricultural planting and harvesting cycles would exacerbate regional food insecurity.

Azeri gas export plans still based on one field

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Domestic Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Significant Fall ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
The Government ◽  
Offshore Field ◽  
European Markets

Significance Azerbaijan will start exporting gas to Turkey via the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) at the end of June and onward to European markets from 2020. TANAP is a key link in the Southern Gas Corridor, which requires expanded production at the large Shah Deniz offshore field. Impacts The Southern Gas Corridor will bind Turkey and Azerbaijan even closer together. Azerbaijan will continue importing Russian gas to top up domestic consumption. The government will encourage new exploration as it cannot afford a significant fall in hydrocarbon revenues.

Papua New Guinea investment climate deteriorates

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Political and economic outlook for Papua New Guinea. Significance Papua New Guinea (PNG) has benefitted from over a decade of buoyant economic growth, culminating in a forecast GDP growth rate of 15% in 2015. However, the outlook for PNG's major commodity exports (natural gas and gold) is now declining as aggregate demand for resources falls in China and elsewhere in the region. This will lead to a fall in the growth of overall government revenues. Impacts The price for spot market liquefied natural gas exports to Asia is likely to decline. The government will extend its overall fiscal deficit despite announced intentions to reduce debt under the medium-term fiscal strategy. The much-publicised sovereign wealth fund, announced several times but still not implemented, will continue to languish. Diversifying agriculture and fisheries to provide more options for disadvantaged rural populations and SME development will be slow. Foreign investment in PNG will slow down, particularly in gold, copper and other areas of mining.

Mozambique may look to partners to bolster security

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Foreign Assistance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject Mozambique's northern insurgency. Significance President Filipe Nyusi on February 14 called on Mozambique’s international partners to provide "concrete" support to his government’s efforts to combat an apparent Islamist-inspired insurgency in northern Cabo Delgado Province. As thousands of workers get ready to begin the construction of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) site in Palma district, insurgents' attacks have worsened, and the government appears more open to foreign assistance to help end the conflict. Impacts The government will struggle to get a handle on both northern violence and worsening RENAMO-related insecurity in central provinces. Increased stifling of dissent and threats to journalists will raise fears of worsening authoritarianism. The spread of the insurgency and climatic emergencies will exacerbate worsening provincial food insecurity.

Papua New Guinea politics will enter brittle stability

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost

Subject The outlook for politics and the economy in Papua New Guinea. Significance Prime Minister Peter O’Neill has consolidated his government since winning elections in mid-2017. However, economic growth in Papua New Guinea (PNG) has slowed, forcing the government to rein in its spending plans. A 19-billion-dollar liquefied natural gas (LNG) project has not generated the expected fiscal windfall, with most of the revenue still needed to repay the cost of the earlier infrastructure investment. Impacts Links with China are likely to strengthen after President Xi Jinping's visit next month. O'Neill will consolidate his position through the courts and police. Bougainville cannot afford independence unless it can negotiate with mining firms to reopen the Panguna copper mine.

South African government’s GBV plans may disappoint

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
South African ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Gender Based Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Management Structure ◽  
National Strategic Plan ◽  
The Government ◽  
Gender Based

Significance Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly committed to increase funding to combat what he calls South Africa’s “second pandemic”, there is a lack of transparency in how the government disburses funds linked to its National Strategic Plan (NSP) on Gender-based Violence and Femicide. Impacts Civil society groups will increase pressure on the government to make expenditure on GBV programmes more transparent. A new private-sector fund to contribute to the NSP has received strong early support, but its management structure is opaque. High levels of GBV will not only have significant humanitarian and social costs but may deter much-needed foreign investment.

The South African public service wage bill deadlock in 2021: living on the edge

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Marianne Matthee ◽  
Albert Wöcke
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
South African ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Subject Area ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Academic Level ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
The Government

Subject area Macro-Economics. Study level/applicability Undergraduate and MBA. Case overview The COVID 19 pandemic-related restrictions devastated South Africa’s economy in 2020 and although the restrictions were generally less damaging than in 2020, the government had to budget for vaccinations and rebuild the economy. Public service unions had just announced that they were demanding an increase of 4% above inflation for their members and that they were preparing for a strike. They were bitter about the fact that the South African Government had withdrawn from the last year of a three-year wage agreement in February 2020 and their members had not received an increase for the two years. These demands and Finance Minister Mboweni’s response to them had to consider the structural and cyclical impact on the fiscus and economy. Expected learning outcomes The learning outcomes are as follows: understand the general objectives of fiscal policy and stakeholders’ interests; understand the tradeoffs in fiscal policy and the implications of taking a position; and make recommendations based on reasoned judgements about those recommendations. Complexity academic level Undergraduate and MBA level courses on Macro Economics. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS 10: Public Sector Management.

Gas prices expose Europe’s energy vulnerability

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indigenous Production ◽  
Europe Today ◽  
The Cost

Significance The cost of gas-fired generation sets the electricity price in much of Europe today. Falling indigenous production has left Europe reliant on gas imports and exposed it to global liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices set by fast-recovering China. This has left retail-only electricity suppliers vulnerable and increases the risk that falling disposable incomes will undermine post-pandemic recovery. Impacts EU carbon allowance prices will stay strong. Higher energy prices will stoke inflation amid a fragile recovery, posing a dilemma for central banks. Rising gas prices have had ancillary but potentially alarming impacts as some fertiliser and CO2 producers have shut in production.

Algeria-Morocco pipeline closure could add to tensions

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
East Mediterranean ◽  
Content Type

Significance The pipeline transit agreement is set to expire at the end of October. It comes as tensions between Morocco and Algeria have escalated, with the latter cutting diplomatic ties with Rabat and closing its airspace to Moroccan airplanes. Impacts Algeria will argue that trans-Morocco gas can be replaced with extra volumes via the Medgaz line and with liquefied natural gas. The supply implications mainly affect Spain and Morocco, and will have little relevance for other European gas projects. In the East Mediterranean, the costs of a pipeline to Europe remain prohibitively high.

New Tanzanian government’s focus may shift

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Rare Earths ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Agenda

Significance Magufuli and the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) have entered 2021 on a high, having swept the October 31 elections and essentially removed all vestiges of opposition to their power. They now need to deliver on their ambitious development agenda. Impacts Crackdowns against the opposition, civil society and other critics will intensify. Persistent bottlenecks in government suggest progress towards a flagship USD30bn liquefied natural gas project may remain slow. Reports that Tanzania is close to finalising a deal for its first ever rare earths mine could give Magufuli’s agenda an early boost.

Russia will increase covert Baltic interference

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Lightning Strike ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Military Exercise

Significance In line with such concerns, Estonia held a large military exercise, Hedgehog, on May 4-15, involving 13,000 troops. On May 6, Lithuania launched Lightning Strike, a military exercise involving 3,000 troops in a simulated defence of the country's new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal at Klaipeda. In December, Latvia said Russian submarines had approached its maritime borders more than 50 times in the past year. However, Russia's more overt activities also pose a major risk to the Baltics. Impacts Russian intelligence will continue to target not just Baltic secrets but, through them, NATO and EU ones. Russian operations will aim to create division by playing on discontent within sizeable ethnic Russian minorities who feel marginalised. NATO will increase the rate and size of Baltic drills to reassure the Baltic states.

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