Constitutional crisis is accelerating in Venezuela

Significance The Supreme Court (TSJ) has nullified a sweeping amnesty law passed by the National Assembly, and Maduro is assessing constitutional amendments to dissolve the Assembly in 60 days and void recently approved legislative measures. Among other counter-initiatives, the opposition Democratic Unity Movement (MUD) has passed a law changing the composition of the Supreme Court and the requirements for convening a recall referendum. Impacts Further constitutional machinations are inevitable as the PSUV and MUD seek to outmanoeuvre each other. Political violence is likely as both sides mobilise supporters (including rallies this weekend) in a context of lawlessness and impunity. The UNASUR-backed TRC will not defuse political tensions.

Significance Disputes over constitutionality are tense, and similarly between the executive and legislature, with Maduro preparing to cut funding to the opposition-dominated National Assembly. At the same time, regional pressure is mounting with members of the Mercosur group blocking Venezuela from assuming the body's rotating presidency. Impacts Pressure on the CNE will intensify as the opposition and government respectively seek to advance and block next steps in the recall process. For symbolic reasons, the opposition will keep the Assembly open even if funds are cut and the Supreme Court annuls its initiatives. The dispute with Mercosur will put an already pressured Venezuelan Foreign Ministry on a back foot.


Subject Cambodia's banned opposition. Significance The National Assembly last month passed an amendment to a law on political parties, enabling the prime minister to request the king to lift court-imposed bans on politicians. Prime Minister Hun Sen’s Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) won all 125 seats in parliament’s lower house in last July’s election. The Supreme Court in November 2017 dissolved the main opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) and gave 118 senior party officials five-year bans from politics. Impacts Indicted CNRP leader Kem Sokha could receive a royal pardon as part of efforts to appease foreign critics. EU trade sanctions will hit Cambodia’s export-oriented garments industry, threatening Hun Sen’s support base. Increasing Western hostility will push Cambodia further into China’s orbit.


Subject Political purge. Significance Ecuador’s Supreme Court on November 7 ordered former President Rafael Correa (2007-17) to stand trial for his alleged involvement in the kidnapping of a political opponent in 2012. The order comes amid increasing efforts by President Lenin Moreno to purge Correa supporters from the government, legislature and bureaucracy and consolidate power. Correa, who now lives in Belgium, is out of reach of Moreno and the Supreme Court, but his popularity and influence in Ecuador endures and will cause ongoing problems for Moreno. Impacts The risk of political violence will increase as Correa and his supporters are locked out of formal political institutions. Correa will find it easier to claim political persecution if attacks against him and his supporters escalate. The arbitrary use of measures to purge Correa supporters from the state risks undermining trust in democratic institutions.


Significance In a major misstep linked to frantic efforts to raise monies for looming bond payments, on March 29 the Supreme Court (TSJ) temporarily usurped the functions of the opposition-dominated National Assembly. Under intensified international scrutiny, President Nicolas Maduro forced a reversal of the move, but the TSJ actions have exacerbated a fraught and volatile situation. Impacts Critics will redouble efforts to invoke the OAS Democratic Charter and suspend Venezuela from the regional body. The issue will divide the OAS for a long period. The opposition will be lured back into protests and resist pressure for dialogue with the government at the cost of a stable transition. The government will pursue opaque bilateral lending to cover its financing needs.


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 140-151
Author(s):  
Chukwuka Onyeaku ◽  
Tonye Clinton Jaja

As a matter of tradition and necessity, teachers of constitutional law within Nigeria (and elsewhere) are often compelled to refer to case law to provide illustrations of principles of constitutional law as enshrined in the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (as amended). However, in some instances, where the said constitution does not provide explicit provisions, teachers of constitutional law are compelled to cite foreign case law as persuasive precedents. Still there are instances wherein there are neither foreign case law nor indigenous case law as precedents. In such situations, teachers of constitutional law are compelled to examine existing case law and relevant legislation until there is a pronouncement from either the Supreme Court or an alteration of the constitution by the National Assembly. One such situation is the subject of the analysis in this article: the situation whereby a president provides assent to bills after the expiration of the tenure of the National Assembly. As legislative tradition, the last session of each Chambers of the Nigeria’s National Assembly culminating each legislative term is usually a valedictory Session. Accordingly, Thursday, 6 June 2019 witnessed the last Session of the eighth National Assembly. As the president transmitted a Proclamation letter terminating the term of the eighth National Assembly inaugurated on 9 June 2015, it becomes paramount to examine the legal and constitutional implications of bills passed by the eighth National Assembly between 2016 and 2018 and up to 5 June 2019, which were assented to by the president after the tenure of the Assembly and office of the president. Thus, this article examines the constitutionality or otherwise of assenting to bills passed by the National Assembly and assented to by the president after the expiration of tenure of their offices. The article argues that the provisions of the 1999 Constitution had been violated when the president signed into law bills passed by the eighth National Assembly after the tenure of office of the president and the eighth National Assembly. It concludes that bills rejected by the president will require another legislative process of being passed into law again by the same Assembly or subsequent one before it can be assented to by the president. Failure to follow this constitutional process will render the assent unconstitutional.


Subject The politics surrounding impeachment of Supreme Court judges. Significance A cross-party grouping in the Senate has refused to support the impeachment of three Supreme Court judges. This represents a major political setback for President Horacio Cartes and the first opposition victory in Congress since he took office in August 2013. The decision will put pressure on Cartes to accept their demand for a wholesale reform of the Supreme Court. Impacts Cartes faces internal Colorado Party opposition to his re-election ambitions. Congressional opposition to the Supreme Court's impeachment plans will weaken Cartes within the party. The process will do nothing to strengthen the credibility of supposed anti-corruption measures.


Significance In April, similar action was taken against nearly 9,000 other non-profits. These moves are part of intensifying clashes between the government and civil society. Many NGOs are vocal opponents of Modi's key policies, and the government is frustrated at their perceived ability to harness popular opposition and use the judiciary to stall key projects. Impacts Government efforts on coal (and to a lesser extent nuclear energy) will still encounter NGO resistance. The Supreme Court may become embroiled in the NGO-government clash, portending costly and lengthy battles for investors. Western governments are likely to be more sensitive to Modi's regulatory crackdown, risking hurdles in improving diplomatic ties.


Subject Amnesty law implications. Significance On July 13, the Supreme Court declared unconstitutional a civil-war amnesty law, which has been in force since 1993. This has led to fears of investigations against current politicians, and warnings that political stability could be undermined. Impacts The fall-out from the Supreme Court ruling will place a renewed focus on the independence of El Salvador's judiciary. The fact that both main parties are involved may discourage politicians from engaging in tit-for-tat allegations. There will be considerable military pressure on ARENA to oppose reopening civil-war cases.


Subject Morales pressures. Significance The UN-led International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) and the attorney general’s office on August 10 formally requested that the supreme court allow a legislative vote on whether President Jimmy Morales can be stripped of immunity from prosecution. Morales is facing investigation over allegations of illegal campaign financing, which undermine his stated commitment to combating corruption. Impacts Confrontation with the CICIG could affect aid financing from international donors, especially those linked to the UN. A successful push to remove Morales’s immunity would likely spark a series of similar motions against serving legislators. Popular frustration with the political establishment will position new, anti-corruption parties well for the elections in 2019.


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