Syrian civil war heads for escalation

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
Clinton Presidency ◽  
The Way

Significance A recent upsurge in fighting has undermined the Geneva talks which the truce was supposed to facilitate. The collapse of the talks and truce could pave the way to a regime offensive on the rebels' most important stronghold, Aleppo. Impacts Clinton presidency might be more willing to provide covert military backing to moderate rebels and take a harder line on Assad's removal. A major offensive on Aleppo would cause large new refugee flows towards the Turkish border. Pro-regime forces lack manpower to defeat the rebellion definitively, but can weaken it seriously.

Trump leaves field to Putin and Erdogan in Syria

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
Peace Settlement ◽  
East And West ◽  
Foreign Ministers

Significance The team includes the defence and foreign ministers, the intelligence chief and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s special adviser Ibrahim Kalin. They will visit Washington later. President Donald Trump’s decision to pull US forces out of Syria has opened new chapters in Turkish-Russian and Turkish-US relations as well as the Syrian civil war, with Turkey poised to initiate military operations both east and west of the Euphrates. Impacts Erdogan will use a victory in Syria to crack down on domestic opposition. Russia may attempt a ‘grand deal’ peace settlement for Syria and invite Trump to participate. Turkey will step up anti-PKK operations in Iraq.

Erdogan prepares to intervene in Libyan civil war

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Institutional Framework ◽  
Air Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Way

Significance The deployment of Turkish troops to protect the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) and intervene in Libya’s civil war looks increasingly likely. GNA Prime Minister Fayez Serraj met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul on December 15. Serraj and the Turkish authorities have created a detailed legal and institutional framework for partnership affecting not just Libya but also Turkey’s disputes with its neighbours over rights in the Eastern Mediterranean. Impacts A new round of EU sanctions on Libya could be on the way. United Arab Emirates and Egyptian support for Haftar will probably grow. A swift military resolution in Libya is unlikely, with Turkey preferring to deploy air power, including drones.

Countering extremism drives Egypt's foreign policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Active Role ◽  
The United States ◽  
Strategic Partnership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Direct Involvement ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
At Home

Significance In the midst of economic and security problems at home and accelerating instability in the region, President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi has looked outwards to seek help. Partnerships with the Gulf have aided a reeling Egyptian economy while active relations with Russia have provided military benefits. Yesterday it was announced that Russia will supply Egypt with 46 new Ka-52K Alligator Helicopters for Egypt's two new French Mistral warships. Impacts Any differences with the Gulf on Syria will not be acute enough to damage relations. Besides, Egypt's direct involvement and impact on the Syrian civil war are negligible. However, Egypt will continue taking a more active role in Libya. Relations with the United States will be sustained given the decades-old strategic partnership that is still important to both sides.

Tensions on the Israel-Syria-Lebanon border will rise

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Ballistic Missile ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence System ◽  
Radar Systems ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
Northern Border

Significance This followed the first-ever operational launch of the longer-range Arrow ballistic missile defence system (initially introduced in 2000), when an Arrow-2 missile interceptor on March 17 successfully shot down a Syrian S-200 missile launched at Israeli jets. Tensions on Israel’s northern border are at the highest level since the 2011 outbreak of the Syrian civil war. Impacts Hezbollah’s efforts to acquire precision weapons will ensure ongoing Israeli military operations against the group in Lebanon and Syria. In the event of an accidental strike on Russian forces, Israel would be vulnerable to Russia’s advanced anti-aircraft and radar systems. Any future Hezbollah-Israel war would massively damage Lebanese infrastructure and trigger an evacuation of Israel’s northern communities.

Female candidates eye Guatemala’s presidency

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Female Candidates ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Way

Significance Three female candidates lead the polls at this point. However, all three face legal challenges to their candidacies, raising the prospect that some may be barred before June. With corruption set to be the key electoral issue, all presidential hopefuls will strive to present themselves as the cleanest candidate as campaigning kicks off in earnest. Impacts The election of an anti-corruption candidate could pave the way for the CICIG’s mandate to be reinstated. A new president would enable a reset of relations with Washington, which is becoming increasingly critical of the Morales administration. The new administration could halt controversial proposed legal changes to allow amnesties for civil war human rights abusers.

Russia will shape end to Syrian civil war

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Syrian Civil War

Headline SYRIA: Russia will shape end to Syrian civil war

Worsened Russian relations will cut Erdogan’s options

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Nuclear Power Station ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Power Station ◽  
The Caucasus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
Set Up

Significance Uncertainty about whether Moscow will lift its suspension of flights from June 1 is discouraging Russian tourism into mid-summer. Turkey’s growing defence ties with Ukraine, its higher profile in the Caucasus and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s revival of plans for a canal bypassing the Bosphorus threaten to upset Ankara’s delicately balanced relations with Moscow. Impacts Russia will seek to strengthen ties further with Iran and Egypt, Turkey’s rivals in the Caucasus and Eastern Mediterranean. Moscow will be less willing to accommodate Ankara at platforms such as the Astana Process set up to resolve the Syrian civil war. Work on Turkey’s first nuclear power station, being built at Akkuyu by Russia’s Atomstroyexport, is likely to experience further delays.

War against Islamic State to last years in Iraq, Syria

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
International Terrorism ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
The Us ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
Foreign Fighters

Significance Zamili's remarks appear to signal Iraqi government concerns that the US-led international air campaign against the group is not going well. The effectiveness of airstrikes has been constrained by poor intelligence and strict rules of engagement; efforts to support local ground forces are at a standstill; and Iraqi offensive operations have virtually ground to a halt. Impacts Russia's strong intervention into Syria will not break the stalemate in either the fight against ISG or the Syrian civil war. The huge costs of a protracted campaign against ISG will further weaken Iraq's medium-term fiscal outlook. ISG's survival will limit Syrian Kurdish ambitions to establish a contiguous territory across northern Syria. It will also contain Syrian rebel forces, ensuring that the stalemate in the Syrian civil war continues. Continued flow of foreign fighters to Iraq and Syria will ensure international terrorism threat persist over the long term.

Jordan will seek Syrian regime help on border security

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Border Security ◽  
Business Community ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Pressure ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
Northern Border ◽  
The Government

Subject Jordan's Syria policy. Significance The long Syrian civil war has presented Amman with multiple security threats and a huge refugee influx that the government estimates at 1.2 million people. Jordan’s Syria policy prioritises the security of its northern border over all considerations. However, its tactics to achieve that end have changed as the government in Damascus resumes its grip on key geographic areas. Impacts The timing of border normalisation will depend on Syrian military capacity and Jordanian ability to restrain its southern rebel proteges. Amman will come under political and financial pressure from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to resist the early resumption of trade with Damascus. The Jordanian business community will seek opportunities in the reconstruction of Syria. Amman will use a closer relationship with Moscow to deter Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed groups deploying near the Jordan-Syria border.

Soleimani’s death may further weaken Iran in Syria

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil War ◽  
The United States ◽  
Pragmatic Approach ◽  
Military Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Complex Operation ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
The Government ◽  
Selection Of

Subject Iranian networks in Syria. Significance Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani played a key role in shaping the array of foreign and local Shia militias that supported the government of President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war from 2011. This was a complex operation involving the mobilisation of sympathetic clerics across the Shia world, who sponsored and recruited the various militias, as well as the selection of capable military leaders. Impacts The Quds Force will seek multiple means of retaliating against the United States through covert operations and proxies. Iran will take a pragmatic approach to preserving key alliances, including with Russia and Syria. The IRGC might accelerate the redeployment of some militias from Syria to Yemen, Iraq or other more promising theatres. IRGC leaders will become more cautious in their travel plans, reducing their scope to deploy personal charisma in co-opting foreign Shia.

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