Soleimani’s death may further weaken Iran in Syria

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil War ◽  
The United States ◽  
Pragmatic Approach ◽  
Military Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Complex Operation ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
The Government ◽  
Selection Of

Subject Iranian networks in Syria. Significance Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani played a key role in shaping the array of foreign and local Shia militias that supported the government of President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war from 2011. This was a complex operation involving the mobilisation of sympathetic clerics across the Shia world, who sponsored and recruited the various militias, as well as the selection of capable military leaders. Impacts The Quds Force will seek multiple means of retaliating against the United States through covert operations and proxies. Iran will take a pragmatic approach to preserving key alliances, including with Russia and Syria. The IRGC might accelerate the redeployment of some militias from Syria to Yemen, Iraq or other more promising theatres. IRGC leaders will become more cautious in their travel plans, reducing their scope to deploy personal charisma in co-opting foreign Shia.

Countering extremism drives Egypt's foreign policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Active Role ◽  
The United States ◽  
Strategic Partnership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Direct Involvement ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
At Home

Significance In the midst of economic and security problems at home and accelerating instability in the region, President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi has looked outwards to seek help. Partnerships with the Gulf have aided a reeling Egyptian economy while active relations with Russia have provided military benefits. Yesterday it was announced that Russia will supply Egypt with 46 new Ka-52K Alligator Helicopters for Egypt's two new French Mistral warships. Impacts Any differences with the Gulf on Syria will not be acute enough to damage relations. Besides, Egypt's direct involvement and impact on the Syrian civil war are negligible. However, Egypt will continue taking a more active role in Libya. Relations with the United States will be sustained given the decades-old strategic partnership that is still important to both sides.

Brazil's relations with all key partners risk downturn

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Relations ◽  
The United States ◽  
Trading Partner ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Pragmatic Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance Since taking office in January 2019, Bolsonaro's government has guided its international relations by its right-wing ideology. On the global stage, it has aligned itself closely with the Trump administration and had cordial relations with the government of former Argentine President Mauricio Macri, while initially maintaining a pragmatic approach to China, Brazil’s largest trading partner. Impacts Brazil is on a trajectory that will leave it at odds with the United States, China, Europe and Argentina simultaneously. Failure to roll out COVID-19 vaccines rapidly may inhibit Brazilian participation in international conferences when these resume. The agribusiness caucus in Congress will seek to diminish the government’s animosity towards China.

Diálogos militares by Diego García de Palacio: The first American work on the law of nations

1992 ◽  
Vol 32 (290) ◽  
pp. 446-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Valencia Villa
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Code Of Conduct ◽  
The United States ◽  
Internal Conflict ◽  
Humanitarian Law ◽  
Law Of Nations ◽  
Simon Bolivar ◽  
The Law ◽  
The Government

Over the years the Americas have made significant contributions to the development of international humanitarian law. These include three nineteenth-century texts which constitute the earliest modern foundations of the law of armed conflict. The first is a treaty, signed on 26 November 1820 by the liberator Simón Bolívar and the peacemaker Pablo Morillo, which applied the rules of international conflict to a civil war. The second is a Spanish-American work entitled Principios de Derecho de Genres (Principles of the Law of Nations), which was published in 1832 by Andrés Bello. This work dealt systematically with the various aspects and consequences of war. The third is a legal instrument, signed on 24 April 1863 by United States President Abraham Lincoln, which codified the first body of law on internal conflict under the heading “Instructions for the Government of Armies of the United States in the Field” (General Orders No. 100). This instrument, known as the Lieber Code, was adopted as the new code of conduct for the armies of the Union during the American Civil War.

Energy reform will hit investor confidence in Mexico

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
International Trade Agreements ◽  
The Government ◽  
Energy Reform

Significance The government will appeal the rulings, which follow action by renewables firms. With constitutional battles over energy investments already unfolding, the future of Mexico’s energy framework has been thrown into turmoil. Impacts Increasing energy prices will probably push inflation above Banxico’s upper target limit of 4%. AMLO’s apparent disregard for international trade agreements will strain relations with the United States. AMLO’s pro-austerity fiscal stance could take a toll on his popularity.

Turkish-US talks may limit Armenian genocide damage

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Armenian Genocide ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance Erdogan adopted a relatively conciliatory tone and stopped short of declaring retaliatory measures, for fear of the economic consequences in particular, despite the fact that most Turks see Biden’s move as an insult and an attack on Turkish dignity. Impacts Ankara’s options for retaliation are limited but could include reduced military coordination with Washington in Syria and Iraq. Turkey could ask non-NATO US forces to leave, but closing the Incirlik air and Kurecik radar bases would hurt relations with NATO. The issue could be used internally to rally Turkish nationalist anger with the United States in support of the government.

UK Syria airstrikes strategy carries risks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
International Security ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government ◽  
Jeremy Corbyn

Significance The government is aligning itself with the emerging international strategy against ISG in Syria. Its push to participate in airstrikes in part reflects a wish to reassert the United Kingdom's role as an international security partner, especially to the United States and France. Impacts The government envisages airstrikes as being needed for at least 12-18 months. The United Kingdom will be important but secondary in the anti-ISG coalition, with the United States continuing to conduct most operations. In the interests of its anti-ISG strategy, the government will temper its insistence on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stepping down. The risk of an Islamist terrorist attack in the United Kingdom will increase. If Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn comes to be seen as correct in his anti-airstrikes stance, it will further envenom relations on the left.

Higher Chile growth faces domestic and external risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growing Economy ◽  
Fiscal Austerity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance After four sluggish years, economic growth has been picking up steadily since mid-2017. However, as noted by Moody’s, medium-term prospects remain hampered by reliance on copper exports as, in the shorter term, has also been apparent in the context of the tariff war between the United States and China. Impacts According to the IMF, Chile will be the region’s fastest-growing economy this year, just ahead of Peru. The government will walk tightrope between a need for fiscal austerity and social demands. The tariff war will underscore the pressing need for diversification out of commodity exports.

Mexico’s brain drain to continue unabated

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Brain Drain ◽  
The United States ◽  
Government Agency ◽  
National Council ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The University

Subject Mexico's brain drain. Significance Recent studies suggest increasing numbers of skilled professionals are emigrating from Mexico. A report by the University of Zacatecas (UAZ) published in March shows more than 1.4 million Mexicans with postgraduate degrees left the country between 1990 and 2015 due to a lack of professional development opportunities. According the National Council for Science and Technology (CONACYT), the government agency responsible for policy in this area, 46% of skilled emigrants live in Europe, 30% in the United States, 12% in Latin America and 7% in Canada. Impacts Emigration of skilled workers will be a fiscal burden as it annuls the benefits of investing in human resources. Policies to attract foreign talent could mitigate the problem, but there is no evidence that this is being considered. A contentious election outcome could trigger instability, further fuelling the outward flow of highly skilled Mexicans.

Election reinforces the regime’s control of Algeria

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
The Political ◽  
Young Generation ◽  
National Liberation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Liberation Front ◽  
The Government

Significance The National Liberation Front (FLN) and Democratic National Rally (RND) received the most seats, as expected, amid widespread voter apathy. Impacts The government will continue its austerity strategy in response to the low oil price, and face more social tension and protests. The young generation will lose even more trust in the political system and opt for protest, resignation and emigration. The supporters of security and economic cooperation with the United States within the regime were strengthened.

Infrastructure investments face obstacles in Peru

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Government ◽  
Public Works ◽  
Public Private Partnerships ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
The Government

Subject Public-private partnerships. Significance Amid attempts to secure new investment from Canada and the United States, the government is wrestling with political difficulties surrounding the future of public-private partnerships (PPPs). These have been magnified in recent months by the bad publicity arising from the Odebrecht bribery scandals. Establishing a politically acceptable balance between attracting investors and ensuring the transparency of public works contracts is proving increasingly important. Impacts The problem of corruption in sub-national government will cloud the operations of PPPs. There will be a need for stronger and more independent regulation of PPP projects. The localised reach of the Works for Taxes programme will limit its scope in dealing with wider objectives.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document