Countering extremism drives Egypt's foreign policy

Significance In the midst of economic and security problems at home and accelerating instability in the region, President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi has looked outwards to seek help. Partnerships with the Gulf have aided a reeling Egyptian economy while active relations with Russia have provided military benefits. Yesterday it was announced that Russia will supply Egypt with 46 new Ka-52K Alligator Helicopters for Egypt's two new French Mistral warships. Impacts Any differences with the Gulf on Syria will not be acute enough to damage relations. Besides, Egypt's direct involvement and impact on the Syrian civil war are negligible. However, Egypt will continue taking a more active role in Libya. Relations with the United States will be sustained given the decades-old strategic partnership that is still important to both sides.

Subject Iranian networks in Syria. Significance Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani played a key role in shaping the array of foreign and local Shia militias that supported the government of President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war from 2011. This was a complex operation involving the mobilisation of sympathetic clerics across the Shia world, who sponsored and recruited the various militias, as well as the selection of capable military leaders. Impacts The Quds Force will seek multiple means of retaliating against the United States through covert operations and proxies. Iran will take a pragmatic approach to preserving key alliances, including with Russia and Syria. The IRGC might accelerate the redeployment of some militias from Syria to Yemen, Iraq or other more promising theatres. IRGC leaders will become more cautious in their travel plans, reducing their scope to deploy personal charisma in co-opting foreign Shia.


2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 131-161
Author(s):  
G. G. Kosach

The paper examines the evolution of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy in the context of wider changes in the Middle East and in the Arab world triggered by the Arab Spring. The author argues that during this decade the Kingdom’s foreign policy has witnessed a fundamental transformation: the very essence of the Saudi foreign policy course has changed signifi cantly as the political es-tablishment has substantially revised its approaches to the country’s role in the region and in the world. Before 2011, Saudi Arabia — the land of the ‘Two Holy Mosques’ — positioned itself as a representative of the international Muslim community and in pursuing its foreign policy relied primarily on the religious authority and fi nancial capabilities. However, according to Saudi Arabia’s leaders, the Arab Spring has plunged the region into chaos and has bolstered the infl uence of various extremist groups and movements, which required a signifi cant adjustment of traditional political approaches. Saudi Arabia, more explicit than ever before, has declared itself as a nation state, as a regional leader possessing its own interests beyond the abstract ‘Muslim Ummah’. However, the author stresses that these new political ambitions do not imply a complete break with the previous practice. For example, the containment of Iran not only remains the cornerstone of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy, but has become even more severe. The paper shows that it is this opposition to Iran, which is now justifi ed on the basis of protecting the national interests, that predetermines the nature and the specifi c content of contemporary Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy including interaction with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), approaches towards the solution of the Israeli-Palestinian confl ict, combating terrorism, and relations with the United States. In that regard, the transformation of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy has, on the one hand, opened up new opportunities for strengthening the Kingdom’s interaction with Israel, but, at the same time, has increased tensions within the framework of strategic partnership with the United States. The author concludes that currently Saudi Arabia is facing a challenge of diversifying its foreign policy in order to increase its international profi le and political subjectivity.


2021 ◽  
pp. 92-122
Author(s):  
Jacob Darwin Hamblin

As with its overall foreign policy, the United States framed its atomic energy offerings as part of the global struggle between the “free world” and the communists, a division that masked the firm US military alignment with colonial powers. The United States continued that framing even as nations such as India and Ghana tried to forge a different path that associated atomic energy with the struggle for national or even racial liberation. The specter haunting Eisenhower and his successors was the emergence of a bloc of countries whose concerns were primarily racial and anti-colonial. Given the reality of racial segregation at home and the government’s close alliance with colonial powers of Europe, such a framing would put the United States on the side of the old colonial masters. American politicians utilized the promise of atomic energy to dim such perceptions amid numerous racially charged challenges in the 1950s and ’60s.


Author(s):  
Robert R. Bianchi

The rise of the New Silk Road is generating fierce debates over the emergence of new megaregions and their role in reshaping world politics. Chinese writers are avid consumers of and contributors to these discussions both at home and internationally. China’s growing interest in megaregional integration accompanied a sharp turn in foreign policy—from a defensive posture that feared provoking war with the United States toward a bold campaign to assert global leadership, economically and diplomatically. Gradually, Chinese leaders are beginning to realize that all of the emerging megaregions are developing lives of their own that cannot be directed by a hierarchical network centered in Beijing. This realization is forcing China’s policymakers to reconsider their traditional assumption that sovereignty belongs only to formal governments and the elites that control them rather than to the all of the citizens who comprise the national communities.


Significance The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) should easily get the most votes, but it faces a likely setback and a dent in its authority. Weakening support from its voters and Turkey's proportional representation system are likely to drive its number of parliamentary seats down from the 327 out of 550 seats it won in 2011, perhaps even to the point where an overall majority is in doubt. Impacts Market confidence and the lira may weaken, but will not deteriorate drastically, unless AKP is forced out of office -- a remote scenario. Fiscal and monetary policy may be loosened to win support until a new government able to last for a full four-year term is in office. A politically weaker AKP risks long-term splits, but these will not emerge unless there have been months of instability. Growing internal discord -- and the government's defiant response to its critics at home and abroad -- may isolate Turkey internationally. The United States and EU will continue to avoid confrontation with the Erdogan government as far as possible.


Significance The FAA's proposed regulations will open up drone use in the United States to commercial exploitation. While in some respects less rigorous than they might have been, the draft regulations will initially limit drone use. This could leave the United States in a less advantageous position than operators elsewhere in the world to develop drone-based services. Impacts The potential market for these larger drones is put at over 89 billion dollars over the next ten years. Military sales will be 72 billion dollars in that period. End-use control on military exports will help Washington influence allied foreign policy.


Subject Foreign policy after the attempted coup. Significance Before the July 15 coup attempt, foreign policy was showing signs of turning towards pragmatism from the ambitious positions associated with former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Rapprochement was sought with both Russia and Israel, and relations with the United States and EU were relatively stable. The attempted coup introduces considerable uncertainty. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's insistence that US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen was behind it is drawing the United States into Turkey's most serious political trauma in decades. Impacts Relations with the West are unlikely to return to their pre-coup warmth soon. The most likely result for US-Turkish relations is what may be termed a 'stressed-out partnership of convenience'. How both US-Turkish relations and Turkey's conflict with the PKK develop will determine Turkish policy on Syria and the ISG.


Subject Russia's new foreign policy document. Significance A new foreign policy concept presents Russia as a nation facing a range of security threats but nevertheless willing to play a global role in a multipolar, chaotic and unpredictable world. Replacing the 2013 foreign policy concept, the document also attempts to assuage fears of Russian expansionist intent. Impacts Assumptions about the United States may change rapidly under President Donald Trump. Moscow will strengthen its foothold in Syria as a bargaining chip with the West and to show its resolve not to back down under pressure. Russia will refuse to relax control over Ukraine's eastern regions. Asian policy will consist partly of courting China and partly of seeking alliances to counterbalance this. Economic cooperation with Japan will be constrained by lack of a near-term deal on territorial issues.


Significance Bolsonaro’s visit to Davos was his first foreign trip since taking office on January 1. His speech, while trying to portray Brazil as “open for business”, also reinforced the radical change his government is promoting in the country’s foreign policy, from a tradition of pragmatism and multilateralism to a highly ideological and nationalistic stance. This move is less the result of a calculated international strategy than part of an effort to strengthen Bolsonaro’s domestic agenda. Impacts Bolsonaro will struggle to balance “open for business” promises with his nationalistic foreign policy. Emulating Trump’s aggressive stance without having the United States' military and economic power risks seriously weakening Brazil globally. Brazil’s new climate change scepticism will further weaken global efforts in this area.


Significance The presidency will put Romania's isolation in the spotlight. It has no backers in the EU prepared to overlook its escalating retreat from democratic and reform commitments, and there is no sign that the United States is prepared to act as a counterweight. Impacts Romania is ill-prepared for the presidency while political warfare at home will absorb government energies. It is likely that real decision-making will reside in Brussels with Romania having no more than a ceremonial role. Dragnea’s hostility to Brussels makes a tough EU response likely in response to more creeping authoritarianism.


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