Mexico's Morena may struggle despite leadership

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
First Lady ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Institutional Revolutionary Party ◽  
Revolutionary Party ◽  
National Action Party ◽  
To Come

Subject Morena's election prospects. Significance On April 17, newspaper Reforma published the results of a poll (conducted between April 7-10) revealing the leader of the new, leftist Movement of National Regeneration (Morena) Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to be the most popular candidate ahead of the 2018 presidential election. Although President Enrique Pena Nieto's Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) had the greater share of preferences, all its potential candidates came third after Lopez Oberador and former First Lady Margarita Zavala (2006-12) of the conservative National Action Party (PAN). Impacts While Lopez Obrador's popularity may boost Morena, conversely the party could hold him back, hindering his presidential chances in 2018. Coalitions with the PAN will boost the PRD's election hopes, but its failure to redefine itself may see it lose support to Morena. Morena's continued refusal to enter into coalitions could cripple the Mexican left for years to come.

Traditional loyalties may crumble in Mexico in 2018

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
The State ◽  
Gubernatorial Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Preliminary Results ◽  
Institutional Revolutionary Party ◽  
Revolutionary Party ◽  
Democratic Revolution ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Leftist Party

Subject The June 5 state election results. Significance According to preliminary results, President Enrique Pena Nieto's ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) won only five of the twelve state gubernatorial elections held on June 5. In contrast, the conservative opposition National Action Party (PAN) won seven -- four on its own and three in coalition with the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), which did not obtain a single governorship by itself. The radical, leftist National Regeneration Movement (Morena) performed particularly well in Veracruz and Zacatecas, where it won between one-quarter and one-third of the vote, although it did not win any governorships. Impacts Alliances of ideological opposites PAN and PRD are electorally effective and may see them win the State of Mexico in 2017. Nevertheless, the PAN will have little incentive to join forces with a weak PRD for the presidential election in 2018. While Morena did not win any governorship, leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is now well positioned ahead of 2018.

Mexico’s PRI faces a bleak outlook

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Institutional Revolutionary Party ◽  
Revolutionary Party ◽  
Ideological Tensions ◽  
Political Realities ◽  
Voting Intentions

Subject The outlook for the PRI. Significance President Enrique Pena Nieto’s Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) appointed a new chairman on May 2, one month into the formal campaign period of July's presidential election. In an apparent effort to revive enthusiasm among traditional 'priistas' -- many of whom are disappointed with the experimental appointment of non-PRI member Jose Antonio Meade as presidential candidate -- former Guerrero Governor Rene Juarez Cisneros replaces the more reformist Enrique Ochoa Reza. The appointments illustrate the difficulties facing the PRI as it tries to adapt to new political realities and salvage something from the elections; with Meade trailing in voting intentions, the party looks set for a crushing defeat. Impacts Juarez will struggle to win any of this year’s nine gubernatorial races; the PRI is not the favourite in any of them. The PRI may also end up third in terms of its share of congressional seats in both chambers, an unprecedented result. Ideological tensions will push some PRI members to migrate to Morena.

Lopez Obrador is the man to beat in Mexico in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Preliminary Results ◽  
Institutional Revolutionary Party ◽  
Revolutionary Party ◽  
Democratic Revolution ◽  
National Action Party ◽  
Leftist Party

Significance Preliminary results of the elections held on June 4 in four states indicate that President Enrique Pena Nieto’s Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) narrowly retained the key State of Mexico. In Coahuila state, the PRI appears to have narrowly defeated the conservative National Action Party (PAN), which won the governorship of Nayarit state comfortably, in coalition with the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). Veracruz state -- which only elected municipal authorities -- saw a significant expansion of non-PRI mayors elected, though only three were independents. Impacts The PAN and PRD may struggle to be competitive alone in 2018 vis-a-vis the PRI machinery or Morena’s outsider appeal. The PRD has yet to decide whether to continue its alliance with the PAN or seek a coalition with Morena ahead of 2018. The failure of independents to perform strongly in these elections suggest that they are unlikely to be competitive ahead of 2018.

Key challenges to redefine Mexico’s political balance

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Institutional Revolutionary Party ◽  
Approval Rating ◽  
Turbulent Times ◽  
Revolutionary Party ◽  
National Action Party

Significance A January 18 Reforma survey showed President Enrique Pena Nieto’s popular approval rating to have plummeted to 12%, from 24% in December. With US President Donald Trump’s first days in power suggesting turbulent times ahead, Pena Nieto’s government looks set to struggle. Impacts The remainder of Pena Nieto’s administration will see governability problems that could exacerbate crime and economic hardship. The outcome of June’s four state elections will have a significant impact on the presidential elections of 2018. Pena Nieto’s Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) is unlikely to win in 2018. The conservative National Action Party (PAN) has the potential to succeed the current government if it avoids internal strife. The radical leftist National Regeneration Movement (MORENA)’s Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will benefit from PRI weakness.

Mexico's PAN is failing to capitalise on PRI woes

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Election Outcome ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Institutional Revolutionary Party ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Vote Intention ◽  
Revolutionary Party ◽  
Historical Range ◽  
Voting Intentions

Significance A vote intention poll carried out by Buendia & Laredo and published on February 23 shows the conservative opposition National Action Party (PAN) well positioned ahead of the June 7 mid-term elections. The survey shows that support for the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) plummeted by 12 percentage points since its previous poll of November 2014 and is currently only four points above the PAN's vote intention levels, which increased by three points to reach 26%. Impacts PAN voting intentions fall within its historical range, showing its inability to capitalise on the loss of support for its main rivals. However, with many voters undecided, there is some scope for the PAN's support to grow as campaigning starts in April. The election outcome will have a significant impact on the balance of power between the party's main factions. Zavala's bid to contest the PAN's leadership in November will depend largely on the party's electoral success in June.

Escape adds to Pena Nieto's credibility deficit

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Simple Majority ◽  
Green Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Institutional Revolutionary Party ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
Revolutionary Party ◽  
Alliance Building ◽  
Chamber Of Deputies

Significance The embarrassing jailbreak tarnishes the mandate Mexico's mid-term election gave the administration of President Enrique Pena Nieto to consolidate its reform programme. Furthermore, while the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) -- in alliance with the Mexican Green Party (PVEM) and New Alliance Party (PANAL) -- secured a simple majority in the Chamber of Deputies, overall trends show a steady decline of the PRI, and a failure to address some serious credibility gaps. Impacts The PRI's increasing dependence on alliance-building may preclude further fragmentation of Mexico's main parties. As corruption and human rights scandals intensify, PRI-PVEM-PANAL electoral prospects may suffer. El Chapo's escape will severely damage faith in Pena Nieto's ability to tackle insecurity.

Corruption to dominate Mexican 2018 election campaigns

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Institutional Revolutionary Party ◽  
Revolutionary Party

Subject Corruption and the election. Significance Former Tamaulipas Governor Eugenio Hernandez Flores (2005-10) was arrested on October 6, on suspicion of corruption. He is the latest in a string of former governors -- mostly of the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) -- to be detained. Public indignation at corruption has increased since September 4, when Animal Politico published the findings of an investigation suggesting that in 2013 and 2014 the federal government embezzled more than 7.6 billion pesos (406 million dollars). Sensitivities about this issue have led to mounting concern regarding the potential misuse of funds donated in the aftermath of September's earthquakes. Impacts Congress’s focus on 2018 budget talks will hinder progress on implementing the National Anti-Corruption system. Public sector corruption will not be significantly reduced under the current administration. Reports of misuse of donations following the earthquakes could trigger public unrest.

Lopez Obrador presidency may disappoint Mexican left

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mexico City ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Institutional Revolutionary Party ◽  
Revolutionary Party ◽  
Democratic Revolution

Subject A profile of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Significance With presidential elections due to take place in July 2018, the leftist National Regeneration Movement (Morena) is the only party so far to have a confirmed candidate. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will run for a third time, having come second on both previous occasions -- in 2006 and 2012 with his former Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). With the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) losing popularity, Lopez Obrador now looks well positioned for victory. Impacts Lopez Obrador’s mayorship of Mexico City gives some indication of how he might govern. A reduction of petrol prices could quickly garner him favour. Rejection of an alliance with the PRD could lose him crucial votes in 2018.

Parties, Brokers, and Voter Mobilization: How Turnout Buying Depends Upon the Party’s Capacity to Monitor Brokers

2016 ◽  
Vol 110 (1) ◽  
pp. 160-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
HORACIO LARREGUY ◽  
JOHN MARSHALL ◽  
PABLO QUERUBÍN
Keyword(s):  
Voter Mobilization ◽  
Institutional Revolutionary Party ◽  
Theoretical Predictions ◽  
Revolutionary Party ◽  
National Action Party ◽  
The Cost

Despite its prevalence, little is known about when parties buy turnout. We emphasize the problem of parties monitoring local brokers with incentives to shirk. Our model suggests that parties extract greater turnout buying effort from their brokers where they can better monitor broker performance and where favorable voters would not otherwise turn out. Exploiting exogenous variation in the number of polling stations—and thus electoral information about broker performance—in Mexican electoral precincts, we find that greater monitoring capacity increases turnout and votes for the National Action Party (PAN) and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). Consistent with our theoretical predictions, the effect of monitoring capacity on PRI votes varies nonlinearly with the distance of voters to the polling station: it first increases because rural voters—facing larger costs of voting—generally favor the PRI, before declining as the cost of incentivizing brokers increases. This nonlinearity is not present for the PAN, who stand to gain less from mobilizing rural voters.

New Mexican party leaders will bring no real change

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
New Mexican ◽  
Institutional Revolutionary Party ◽  
Revolutionary Party ◽  
Leader Following ◽  
Democratic Revolution ◽  
Leadership Changes ◽  
Electoral Performance

Subject Mexico's main political parties have announced new leaders but none is likely to rejuvenate their party's fortunes. Significance Mexico's three main political parties announced leadership changes in August. President Enrique Pena Nieto's Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) confirmed the appointment of former Congressman Manlio Fabio Beltrones on August 20, and the conservative opposition National Action Party (PAN) elected Ricardo Anaya -- also a former legislator -- as its president on August 16. On August 6, Carlos Navarrete, head of the main leftist opposition Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), revealed that he was stepping down as leader following a disastrous electoral performance in the 2015 elections. Impacts Amid popular political disillusionment, all new leaders will face difficult conditions in leading their parties to victory in 2018. The new party presidents' abilities will be tested in the 2016 state elections, prior to the presidential election in 2018. The issue of PAN-PRD electoral alliances will fuel divisions within both parties, and may undermine the authority of their new leaders.

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