Internal divisions will hinder Mexico’s PAN

Subject PAN challenges. Significance Puebla’s new Governor Martha Erika Alonso of the National Action Party (PAN) was killed in a helicopter crash on December 24, along with her husband, former Puebla Governor and leading PAN Senator Rafael Moreno Valle. The tragedy deals a blow on two fronts to a party already struggling with internal divisions and substantially reduced influence. It follows the controversial election of Marko Cortes to the party presidency on November 11 -- a move that prompted PAN stalwart and former Mexican President Felipe Calderon (2006-12) to leave the party. Impacts Local and gubernatorial elections in 2019 will present major challenges for the PAN’s new leadership. The PAN’s lack of younger members -- only 2.9% are under 26 -- will hinder its long-term prospects. Should Calderon succeed in creating a new party, it could offset Morena’s dominance, but this will take time.

Manuel Gómez Morin and the Creation of the National Action Party (PAN)

Manuel Gómez Morin was a multifaceted Mexican whose life spanned the first three quarters of the 20th century, from 1897 to 1972. He was affected personally, domestically, and generationally by the Revolution, which drastically impacted the geographic backdrops of his childhood and youth and severely affected his family’s social standing. In ideological terms, he was aware of the last (and undoubtedly most authoritarian) stages of Porfirio Díaz’s government, as well as Victoriano Huerta’s dictatorship, which had pushed the Mexican population to take up arms. Although he rejected the destructive violence inherent in the process of revolution, he also opposed the dictatorial regimes that were applauded by some for the results they produced. He spent the second half of his life as a critic of the post-revolutionary Mexican state.

Lopez Obrador is the man to beat in Mexico in 2018

Significance Preliminary results of the elections held on June 4 in four states indicate that President Enrique Pena Nieto’s Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) narrowly retained the key State of Mexico. In Coahuila state, the PRI appears to have narrowly defeated the conservative National Action Party (PAN), which won the governorship of Nayarit state comfortably, in coalition with the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). Veracruz state -- which only elected municipal authorities -- saw a significant expansion of non-PRI mayors elected, though only three were independents. Impacts The PAN and PRD may struggle to be competitive alone in 2018 vis-a-vis the PRI machinery or Morena’s outsider appeal. The PRD has yet to decide whether to continue its alliance with the PAN or seek a coalition with Morena ahead of 2018. The failure of independents to perform strongly in these elections suggest that they are unlikely to be competitive ahead of 2018.

Key challenges to redefine Mexico’s political balance

Significance A January 18 Reforma survey showed President Enrique Pena Nieto’s popular approval rating to have plummeted to 12%, from 24% in December. With US President Donald Trump’s first days in power suggesting turbulent times ahead, Pena Nieto’s government looks set to struggle. Impacts The remainder of Pena Nieto’s administration will see governability problems that could exacerbate crime and economic hardship. The outcome of June’s four state elections will have a significant impact on the presidential elections of 2018. Pena Nieto’s Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) is unlikely to win in 2018. The conservative National Action Party (PAN) has the potential to succeed the current government if it avoids internal strife. The radical leftist National Regeneration Movement (MORENA)’s Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will benefit from PRI weakness.

Mexico fuel price spike will have severe impact

Subject Fuel price liberalisation. Significance The liberalisation of Mexican fuel prices this month has seen a sharp increase in pump prices. In a televised address on January 5, President Enrique Pena Nieto said that his government would not reverse the price jump, despite protests throughout the country that have often become violent. Impacts Competition between distributors will take time to develop, precluding any short-term price reductions. The National Action Party (PAN) or the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) may take the presidency in 2018. Uncertainty on whether prices may be artificially lowered by the next government may deter long-term investments in the fuel market.

Mexico's Morena may struggle despite leadership

Subject Morena's election prospects. Significance On April 17, newspaper Reforma published the results of a poll (conducted between April 7-10) revealing the leader of the new, leftist Movement of National Regeneration (Morena) Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to be the most popular candidate ahead of the 2018 presidential election. Although President Enrique Pena Nieto's Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) had the greater share of preferences, all its potential candidates came third after Lopez Oberador and former First Lady Margarita Zavala (2006-12) of the conservative National Action Party (PAN). Impacts While Lopez Obrador's popularity may boost Morena, conversely the party could hold him back, hindering his presidential chances in 2018. Coalitions with the PAN will boost the PRD's election hopes, but its failure to redefine itself may see it lose support to Morena. Morena's continued refusal to enter into coalitions could cripple the Mexican left for years to come.

Parties, Brokers, and Voter Mobilization: How Turnout Buying Depends Upon the Party’s Capacity to Monitor Brokers

Despite its prevalence, little is known about when parties buy turnout. We emphasize the problem of parties monitoring local brokers with incentives to shirk. Our model suggests that parties extract greater turnout buying effort from their brokers where they can better monitor broker performance and where favorable voters would not otherwise turn out. Exploiting exogenous variation in the number of polling stations—and thus electoral information about broker performance—in Mexican electoral precincts, we find that greater monitoring capacity increases turnout and votes for the National Action Party (PAN) and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). Consistent with our theoretical predictions, the effect of monitoring capacity on PRI votes varies nonlinearly with the distance of voters to the polling station: it first increases because rural voters—facing larger costs of voting—generally favor the PRI, before declining as the cost of incentivizing brokers increases. This nonlinearity is not present for the PAN, who stand to gain less from mobilizing rural voters.

Mexican election outcome points to policy continuity

Significance The conservative National Action Party (PAN) came in second place, while the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) lost ground to the more radical National Regeneration Movement (MORENA). The PRI also held on to three of the states it controlled, and recovered the governorship of two more, including the conflictive state of Guerrero. It took Sonora from the PAN, which managed to retain Baja California Sur and won Queretaro from the PRI. The PRD won only one governorship race, in Michoacan. Impacts Fears that the new INE would fail amid poor security conditions did not materialise, validating the institution. If the PRI does not gain a majority, to pass legislation it will require PAN votes, which will come at a hefty price. The PRD faces a difficult period during the 2015-18 legislature as MORENA's arrival has split the leftist vote.