ASEAN-China defence ties will survive UNCLOS, just

Significance The announcement came days after an international ruling under the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) dismissing China's maritime claims and island-building in the South China Sea -- a ruling that Beijing has rejected. This will affect an aspect of China-South-east Asia relations that has gone under-noticed amid the maritime controversies: security and defence cooperation. Impacts Despite growing Chinese interest, Thailand will still seek security ties with Washington. As a beneficiary of competing Chinese and US diplomacy, Myanmar will try to balance the two powers' advances. The further China pushes defence interests and ties in ASEAN, the harder ASEAN will find reaching common security positions. South-east Asian countries will stay ready for maritime skirmishes; they will need Western military and technological support.

Subject South-east Asia's relations with Russia. Significance Russia’s ties with the West are deteriorating. South-east Asia offers Moscow important diplomatic and economic opportunities. Impacts As Russia-China strategic alignment strengthens, Moscow and Beijing will increase coordination and cooperation in South-east Asia. Advanced Russian defence technology will further strengthen Beijing against South-east Asian claimants in the South China Sea dispute. Washington will try to encourage South-east Asian countries to buy US rather than Russian weapons.


Subject US Coast Guard's aims in South-east Asia. Significance As part of US President Donald Trump’s push for full-spectrum competition with China, the US Coast Guard (USCG) has been tasked with a more active role in the western Pacific. The United States promotes ‘freedom of navigation’ in the South China Sea, waters in which there are conflicting claims between China, Taiwan and several South-east Asian countries. Impacts China’s ability to coerce South-east Asian claimants in the South China Sea will grow as its navy and coast guard deploy more vessels there. As ASEAN’s chair for 2020, Vietnam will try to push back against Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea while maintaining ASEAN unity. Negotiations next year between ASEAN and China for a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea in will be impeded by contentious issues.


Subject The South China Sea dispute. Significance China and the United States increased their military activities in the South China Sea in January and February, with US ‘freedom of navigation operations’ (FONOPs) pushing back on Chinese maritime jurisdictional claims in the area. The Philippines before June 2016 contested China’s expansive claims. Increased rivalry between Beijing and Washington in South-east Asia raises the risk of a dangerous naval confrontation. Impacts The Philippines will continue to solicit investment from China. China is unlikely to undertake actions in the South China Sea that would seriously irk the Philippines. South-east Asian countries will emphasise the importance of the region not becoming a theatre for China-US rivalry.


Significance Both documents will reflect Trump’s emphasis on military solutions to foreign policy problems, which has also been evident from his appointment of several former high-ranking military officers to top national security posts. This trend will likely strengthen traditional US security partnerships in South-east Asia: with Thailand and the Philippines, the two US allies, and with Singapore. However, it could complicate US counterterrorism cooperation with South-east Asian governments, which relies more on partnerships with police and intelligence agencies. Impacts Trump needs to manage Duterte’s suspicion of Washington to build a stronger Philippines-US relationship. This would support a greater US naval presence in the South China Sea. It will also be crucial to tackling IS in South-east Asia given the southern Philippines’ vulnerability to terrorists. Washington will need further to warm ties with other IS-vulnerable South-east Asian countries such as Myanmar.


Significance South-east Asian countries are concerned about growing Chinese assertiveness and anxious about growing superpower rivalry in the region. Impacts ASEAN-China negotiations over a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea will resume in 2021 but be prolonged and contentious. South-east Asian claimants will refuse to make concessions to Beijing in return for COVID-19 vaccine supplies. Brunei, ASEAN’s 2021 chair, will work hard to maintain consensus among the bloc’s ten members over the South China Sea.


Significance It is the only country in South-east Asia with a large-scale nuclear plant, although this was never loaded with fuel. Other countries in the region have tentative plans to develop nuclear power programmes. Impacts The current absence of nuclear power programmes will help avert the diversion of capital from renewable energy development in the region. South-east Asian countries with small, non-power reactors, built for research, will try to maintain these facilities. Across the region, the need for electricity grid investment will increase as more decentralised generation sources are deployed.


1969 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 91-94
Author(s):  
Michael B.W. Fyhn ◽  
Henrik I. Petersen ◽  
Anders Mathiesen ◽  
Lars H. Nielsen ◽  
Stig A.S. Pedersen ◽  
...  

A number of sedimentary basins of various ages are located onand offshore Vietnam (Fig. 1). Some of them have significant petroleum resources and have thus attracted interest from industry and academia (Rangin et al. 1995; Matthews et al. 1997; Lee & Watkins 1998; Lee et al. 2001). Moreover, Vietnam is located in a position central to the understanding of the geological development of South-East Asia (Hall & Morley 2004). The structural style and the stratigraphy of the Vietnamese basins thus provide a valuable record about the development of South-East Asia throughout the Phanerozoic and the subsequent Eocene as well as younger deformation associated with the collision and indentation of India into Eurasia and the opening of the South China Sea (Fyhn et al. 2009a, 2010a).


2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-54
Author(s):  
Arfin Sudirman

The South China Sea conflict has been a highly sensitive issue for the last 5 years in ASEAN. China and the US have been using the South China Sea as the New Cold War Arena of power and military hegemonic competition in the South East Asia region. This has been a major challenge for ASEAN as the only regional organization in the South East Asia region that has direct in the area must take major role in managing and resolving the dispute peacefully even though ASEAN has no defense pact like NATO. This paper argues that ASEAN, at this moment, must maintain its role as a mediator and independent-negotiator in the region but at the same time apply its principle of gradually adapting with the new international system. This article also suggests that in the future, ASEAN can take a major role in the governance of the South China Sea and the South East Asia region.


Subject The outlook for Indian naval engagement with South-east Asian countries and ASEAN. Significance At the ASEAN summit in mid-November, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi underlined India's 'Look East' policy, pledging to cultivate diplomatic, economic and security relationships with South-east Asia. One manifestation of Delhi's willingness to undertake a more strategic regional role is the Indian navy's growing portfolio of partnerships with South-east Asian navies. Amid concerns over China's maritime assertiveness, India's navy has been welcomed in the region as a security partner. Impacts India will avoid South-east Asian undertakings that may provoke China. Delhi will need to define 'Look East' policies concretely to convince South-east Asia fully of Indian strategic utility. Modi will expand bilateral naval exercises, humanitarian aid and counter-piracy/smuggling efforts in South-east Asia.


Subject Prospects for South-east Asia in 2019. Significance The early part of next year will feature important elections in some of South-east Asia's major economies. Meanwhile, financial volatility and a trade downturn pose risks to ASEAN economies. ASEAN under Thailand’s chairmanship will aim to advance the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and a Code of Conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea.


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