Northern EU countries may lose influence post-Brexit

Subject The impact of Brexit on northern European countries. Significance The United Kingdom's vote to leave the EU presents a particular challenge to northern EU countries -- some of which are, like the United Kingdom, not members of the euro-area -- as they will lose a powerful ally for a more competitive, fiscally disciplined and globally oriented EU. Impacts Brexit could accelerate a closer economic, financial and fiscal integration of the euro-area, which many non-euro-area capitals oppose. Brexit could widen the gap between an 'inner circle' of euro-area members and a periphery of non-euro ones. The loss of UK contributions to the EU budget means that the burden shouldered by northern EU countries, all net contributors, will rise.

Subject The 'golden visa' controversy in the EU. Significance The European Commission's announcement on October 10 that it would investigate so-called 'golden visa' schemes follows a report by Global Witness and Transparency International warning that insufficient applicant background checks exposed the EU to large-scale money laundering and corruption. Impacts Greater public knowledge of golden visas will increase domestic pressure on governments. Scandals could worsen relations between the EU and non-EU countries. Applications for visas in the United Kingdom will likely decline if there is a Brexit deal.


Subject UK immigration outlook. Significance Under most Brexit scenarios, freedom of movement between the United Kingdom and the EU-27 will end in December 2020. This will require the United Kingdom radically to reform its immigration policy, both towards EU citizens and, to a lesser extent, non-EU citizens. Impacts Immigration reductions will have a small negative impact on UK public finances, even considering the reduced pressure on public services. There will be some increase in non-EU migration, especially of relatively well-paid workers. There may be some upward pressure on wages in specific sectors, although the overall impact on real wages is likely to be small. A change of prime minister may reduce immigration policy restrictiveness, mitigating the impact without altering the direction of travel.


Subject UK-EU trade talks. Significance The United Kingdom will leave the EU on January 31, 2020, but will abide by EU rules as part of the transition period, which runs to December 31, 2020. During this limited period of time, London and Brussels will seek to negotiate a permanent trading relationship. While the transition deadline can be extended, the UK government has committed not to seek an extension. Impacts The impact of no trade deal or a 'thin' one may force the UK government to increase taxes in order to meet spending pledges. UK financial services will rely on an equivalence deal with the EU; London hopes to agree this by mid-2020. The EU’s future trade policy will focus on having stronger sanction powers as well as legal ones for those that unfairly undercut EU firms.


Subject The impact of Brexit on the English-speaking Caribbean. Significance The Caribbean is a region with strong links to the United Kingdom that will be affected significantly by the UK voters' decision to leave the EU ('Brexit'). The region includes sovereign and non-sovereign countries and both groups will be affected, albeit in different ways. Impacts Caribbean concerns will not be a priority for either the United Kingdom or the EU. Uncertainty may further undermine already weak regional economies. CARICOM will need a new trade accord with the United Kingdom, its main export market.


Significance The UK government says it is determined that free movement of people from the EU will end after Brexit. Impacts An upcoming immigration White Paper will provide greater clarity about the UK government’s approach. Proposals to reform the EU's Posted Workers Directive could trigger Eastern European opposition, deepening the east-west divide. Stricter post-Brexit UK immigration policies could lead to labour shortages and skills gaps in sectors such as agriculture and health. Improving euro-area economic prospects could encourage EU nationals living in the United Kingdom to return to the continent.


Subject The impact of Brexit on the civil service. Significance With the formal second reading of the EU Withdrawal Bill in parliament today, UK MPs will start to debate the legislation rescinding the United Kingdom's membership of the EU. London's reluctance to clarify its negotiating position during the Brexit talks with Brussels has led to accusations that the United Kingdom is unprepared for such a complex process, not only politically but administratively, too. Impacts A lack of experienced trade negotiators will hamper the United Kingdom’s ability to conclude trade deals after it has left the EU. Stricter immigration rules for EU nationals would increase the workload of the civil service further. The United Kingdom’s perceived unpreparedness could lower EU trust and confidence.


Significance Indeed, by bargaining hard with vaccine providers and opting for a more deliberate approval process, EU countries are considerably behind the United Kingdom and United States in inoculating its citizens. This has fuelled criticism of the European Commission across member states. Impacts The obscure contracts reached with pharmaceutical companies will renew debates about accountability in the EU. Pressure could grow on Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to resign, but France and Germany will strain themselves to avoid this. Russia and China could use the EU's slow vaccine roll-out to promote the vaccines in certain EU countries.


Subject The impact of the recent money laundering scandal. Significance Danske Bank has lost 28,000 private customers in Denmark between January and June 2018, Reuters reported on August 14. The unfolding money-laundering scandal at Danske Bank’s Estonian branch has sparked a criminal investigation and put the failings of financial supervision under the spotlight in both Estonia and Denmark. Danske Bank, Denmark’s largest lender, has shut down its Estonian operations. The process will be costly for Danske Bank in terms of both money and reputation. It also serves to draw further attention to illicit flows from former Soviet states to the EU. Many countries, including the United Kingdom, have already tightened their legislation accordingly. Impacts The bank will find it more difficult to expand its operations outside its traditional geographical territories. Tighter EU regulations against money-laundering will increase banks’ compliance costs. Some market segments, such as non-resident operations, may become just too costly to service.


Subject Impact of Brexit on Japanese investment into the United Kingdom. Significance Japanese firms are confronting their options by moving their official office locations to EU countries and changing the nationality of their finances. The reactions so far have been limited and largely defensive. Impacts Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Paris will benefit from London-based financial firms relocating, though the scale of movement will be small. Pressure will grow in the United Kingdom for a trade agreement with Japan to balance the new agreement that Japan has with the EU. Slowing European and UK demand for cars will intensify the forces driving Japanese carmakers to consider leaving the United Kingdom.


Author(s):  
María Jesús Rodríguez-Gulías ◽  
Vítor Manuel de Sousa Gabriel ◽  
David Rodeiro-Pazos

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effect of six governance indicators on the rate of creation of new companies between countries that are members of the European Union (EU) and those that are not. H1 states that the various dimensions of governance help to explain the immediate creation of new businesses in European and non-European countries. H2 states that the various dimensions of governance help to explain the deferred creation of new businesses in European and non-European countries. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses two types of analyses: firstly, univariate analysis, which is a descriptive statistics of the dependent, independent and control variables, and the results of a t-test; and secondly, multivariate analysis, which estimates using the fixed-effects estimator under the specifications previously raised for the subsample of 28 EU countries and for the subsample of 103 non-EU countries during the period 2004-2014. Findings The results show that the variables of governance are not significantly higher in the EU, although the density of the enterprises is. Within the governance indicators, government effectiveness is significant in the EU. The results obtained for the EU confirmed H1and H2, with a significant positive effect of government effectiveness on entrepreneurship, while the other governance variables were not significant in the EU subsample. The results obtained for non-EU countries suggest no significant immediate effects (H1) and a slightly significant delayed effect of rule of law on the entrepreneurship (H2) concerned. Research limitations/implications Future research in this area could consider introducing another regional division or other types of methodology as variables affect models. Practical implications Governance can be defined as the ability of a government and its public institutions to provide services and design, and implement rules, which is a factor that affects the creation of new companies. However, the effect of governance could differ depending on the country and its economic environment. This paper analyses the effect of six governance indicators on the rate of creation of new companies considering two different geographic regions as countries are presumably heterogeneous. Therefore, these results indicate that the effect of governance variables on entrepreneurship differs according to the region. Social implications The effect of governance variables on entrepreneurship according to the region is also known. Originality/value This study applied panel data analysis to two samples of countries during the period 2004-2014, one formed by 28 countries of the EU and the other by 103 non-EU countries. No other paper considers this number of countries for this period. To assess the impact of governance on the creation of new companies, this paper considered the existence of immediate and deferred effects of governance on entrepreneurship.


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