Estonia affair will tighten checks on money laundering

Subject The impact of the recent money laundering scandal. Significance Danske Bank has lost 28,000 private customers in Denmark between January and June 2018, Reuters reported on August 14. The unfolding money-laundering scandal at Danske Bank’s Estonian branch has sparked a criminal investigation and put the failings of financial supervision under the spotlight in both Estonia and Denmark. Danske Bank, Denmark’s largest lender, has shut down its Estonian operations. The process will be costly for Danske Bank in terms of both money and reputation. It also serves to draw further attention to illicit flows from former Soviet states to the EU. Many countries, including the United Kingdom, have already tightened their legislation accordingly. Impacts The bank will find it more difficult to expand its operations outside its traditional geographical territories. Tighter EU regulations against money-laundering will increase banks’ compliance costs. Some market segments, such as non-resident operations, may become just too costly to service.

Subject The 'golden visa' controversy in the EU. Significance The European Commission's announcement on October 10 that it would investigate so-called 'golden visa' schemes follows a report by Global Witness and Transparency International warning that insufficient applicant background checks exposed the EU to large-scale money laundering and corruption. Impacts Greater public knowledge of golden visas will increase domestic pressure on governments. Scandals could worsen relations between the EU and non-EU countries. Applications for visas in the United Kingdom will likely decline if there is a Brexit deal.


Subject UK immigration outlook. Significance Under most Brexit scenarios, freedom of movement between the United Kingdom and the EU-27 will end in December 2020. This will require the United Kingdom radically to reform its immigration policy, both towards EU citizens and, to a lesser extent, non-EU citizens. Impacts Immigration reductions will have a small negative impact on UK public finances, even considering the reduced pressure on public services. There will be some increase in non-EU migration, especially of relatively well-paid workers. There may be some upward pressure on wages in specific sectors, although the overall impact on real wages is likely to be small. A change of prime minister may reduce immigration policy restrictiveness, mitigating the impact without altering the direction of travel.


Subject UK-EU trade talks. Significance The United Kingdom will leave the EU on January 31, 2020, but will abide by EU rules as part of the transition period, which runs to December 31, 2020. During this limited period of time, London and Brussels will seek to negotiate a permanent trading relationship. While the transition deadline can be extended, the UK government has committed not to seek an extension. Impacts The impact of no trade deal or a 'thin' one may force the UK government to increase taxes in order to meet spending pledges. UK financial services will rely on an equivalence deal with the EU; London hopes to agree this by mid-2020. The EU’s future trade policy will focus on having stronger sanction powers as well as legal ones for those that unfairly undercut EU firms.


Subject The impact of Brexit on the English-speaking Caribbean. Significance The Caribbean is a region with strong links to the United Kingdom that will be affected significantly by the UK voters' decision to leave the EU ('Brexit'). The region includes sovereign and non-sovereign countries and both groups will be affected, albeit in different ways. Impacts Caribbean concerns will not be a priority for either the United Kingdom or the EU. Uncertainty may further undermine already weak regional economies. CARICOM will need a new trade accord with the United Kingdom, its main export market.


Subject The impact of Brexit on the civil service. Significance With the formal second reading of the EU Withdrawal Bill in parliament today, UK MPs will start to debate the legislation rescinding the United Kingdom's membership of the EU. London's reluctance to clarify its negotiating position during the Brexit talks with Brussels has led to accusations that the United Kingdom is unprepared for such a complex process, not only politically but administratively, too. Impacts A lack of experienced trade negotiators will hamper the United Kingdom’s ability to conclude trade deals after it has left the EU. Stricter immigration rules for EU nationals would increase the workload of the civil service further. The United Kingdom’s perceived unpreparedness could lower EU trust and confidence.


Subject The impact of Brexit on northern European countries. Significance The United Kingdom's vote to leave the EU presents a particular challenge to northern EU countries -- some of which are, like the United Kingdom, not members of the euro-area -- as they will lose a powerful ally for a more competitive, fiscally disciplined and globally oriented EU. Impacts Brexit could accelerate a closer economic, financial and fiscal integration of the euro-area, which many non-euro-area capitals oppose. Brexit could widen the gap between an 'inner circle' of euro-area members and a periphery of non-euro ones. The loss of UK contributions to the EU budget means that the burden shouldered by northern EU countries, all net contributors, will rise.


Subject Outlook for UK-EU trade deals. Significance Following the 'Brexit' referendum, a statement from EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom that the United Kingdom must negotiate its EU exit before concluding a trade deal alters assessments of future trading conditions across the English Channel. Even if the United Kingdom were to retain access to the single market or negotiate a free trade area with the EU, UK-EU trade is likely to be governed solely by WTO rules for many years. Impacts Given the UK government's lack of trade negotiators, the private sector could shape the country's negotiating positions. For UK exporters with domestic suppliers, the impact of tariffs on EU shipments will be mitigated by the pound's depreciation. However, the beneficial impact of the latter is reduced for UK exporters that source from abroad.


Subject The impact of Brexit on Norway. Significance Given Norway's close relationship with both the United Kingdom and the EU, the details of any Brexit arrangement could have significant ramifications for the country. Although major changes to its European Economic Area (EEA) agreement with the EU are unlikely, the Norwegian government has adopted a cautious position, for fear of alienating the EU and fuelling growing Eurosceptic sentiment. Impacts The electorate may remain indifferent to the likelihood of Norway being locked out of Europe and its costs. Another referendum on Norway's EU membership or its EEA agreement is unlikely in the near future. Oslo could play an important informal role in the upcoming Brexit negotiations by functioning as a revolving door for EU and UK delegations. Both the United Kingdom and Norway have an incentive to maintain their open trading relationship.


Subject Post-Brexit defence policy. Significance Much of the discussion surrounding the impact of Brexit on defence and security has focused on its effects on the EU. However, with the EU’s recent defence initiatives and London’s lack of a clear position on the future of EU-UK security cooperation, the United Kingdom could face greater risks than the EU. Impacts UK-EU security and defence cooperation will probably remain largely unchanged until the transition period ends in December 2020. EU defence cooperation will continue to develop, regardless of input from the United Kingdom. Uncertainty over Brexit negotiations will make London more reluctant to take on leadership roles in joint EU projects. The United States, France, Germany, Japan and Australia are likely to be London’s main countries of focus for strengthening defence ties.


2021 ◽  
pp. 203228442199492
Author(s):  
Catherine Van de Heyning

The submission discusses the provisions in the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement on data protection as well as the consequences for the exchange of passenger name record data in the field of criminal and judicial cooperation. The author concludes that the impact of the Agreement will depend on the resolvement of the United Kingdom to uphold the standards of protection of personal data equivalent to the EU’s in order to reach an adequacy decision.


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