'Golden visas' will persist despite EU clampdown

Subject The 'golden visa' controversy in the EU. Significance The European Commission's announcement on October 10 that it would investigate so-called 'golden visa' schemes follows a report by Global Witness and Transparency International warning that insufficient applicant background checks exposed the EU to large-scale money laundering and corruption. Impacts Greater public knowledge of golden visas will increase domestic pressure on governments. Scandals could worsen relations between the EU and non-EU countries. Applications for visas in the United Kingdom will likely decline if there is a Brexit deal.

Significance Indeed, by bargaining hard with vaccine providers and opting for a more deliberate approval process, EU countries are considerably behind the United Kingdom and United States in inoculating its citizens. This has fuelled criticism of the European Commission across member states. Impacts The obscure contracts reached with pharmaceutical companies will renew debates about accountability in the EU. Pressure could grow on Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to resign, but France and Germany will strain themselves to avoid this. Russia and China could use the EU's slow vaccine roll-out to promote the vaccines in certain EU countries.


Subject The impact of Brexit on northern European countries. Significance The United Kingdom's vote to leave the EU presents a particular challenge to northern EU countries -- some of which are, like the United Kingdom, not members of the euro-area -- as they will lose a powerful ally for a more competitive, fiscally disciplined and globally oriented EU. Impacts Brexit could accelerate a closer economic, financial and fiscal integration of the euro-area, which many non-euro-area capitals oppose. Brexit could widen the gap between an 'inner circle' of euro-area members and a periphery of non-euro ones. The loss of UK contributions to the EU budget means that the burden shouldered by northern EU countries, all net contributors, will rise.


Subject The impact of the recent money laundering scandal. Significance Danske Bank has lost 28,000 private customers in Denmark between January and June 2018, Reuters reported on August 14. The unfolding money-laundering scandal at Danske Bank’s Estonian branch has sparked a criminal investigation and put the failings of financial supervision under the spotlight in both Estonia and Denmark. Danske Bank, Denmark’s largest lender, has shut down its Estonian operations. The process will be costly for Danske Bank in terms of both money and reputation. It also serves to draw further attention to illicit flows from former Soviet states to the EU. Many countries, including the United Kingdom, have already tightened their legislation accordingly. Impacts The bank will find it more difficult to expand its operations outside its traditional geographical territories. Tighter EU regulations against money-laundering will increase banks’ compliance costs. Some market segments, such as non-resident operations, may become just too costly to service.


Subject Impact of Brexit on Japanese investment into the United Kingdom. Significance Japanese firms are confronting their options by moving their official office locations to EU countries and changing the nationality of their finances. The reactions so far have been limited and largely defensive. Impacts Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Paris will benefit from London-based financial firms relocating, though the scale of movement will be small. Pressure will grow in the United Kingdom for a trade agreement with Japan to balance the new agreement that Japan has with the EU. Slowing European and UK demand for cars will intensify the forces driving Japanese carmakers to consider leaving the United Kingdom.


Significance All three countries are united by the objective to mitigate US-China rivalry by promoting multilateralism and engagement among middle powers, while at the same time using these to contain China’s behaviour and ambitions in the region. Impacts Engaging with like-minded middle powers in the Indo-Pacific will help Europe distance itself from Washington’s tougher policy on China. The Indo-Pacific vision will result in deepening defence partnerships with India, plus Australia and Japan, such as through arms sales. The Indo-Pacific will be an area of potential future collaboration and cooperation between the United Kingdom and EU countries.


Subject Prospects for Europe in the third quarter. Significance For the rest of June and the third quarter, the EU will grapple with the future positions within the bloc of two member states, the United Kingdom and Greece. The period will see the resolution, one way or another, of the immediate crisis in Greece's relations with its international creditors. The way in which this takes place will have profound implications for the future of the single currency.


Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.


Subject The United Kingdom's WTO status after Brexit. Significance The terms of the United Kingdom's WTO membership are linked to those of the EU. In order to continue benefiting from other members' concessions after Brexit, the United Kingdom will need to arrange its own membership and terms in a potentially lengthy and complicated negotiation process with all other WTO members. Impacts Upon Brexit, the United Kingdom will regain its full competence for concluding bilateral and regional trade agreements. The government's slow progress in recruiting experienced UK trade negotiators may put it at a disadvantage. Poor understanding of the complexity of WTO negotiations may mean that economic losses have been underestimated.


Significance This followed a landmark speech on January 17 in which she added more clarity and detail to her previous stance on the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU. May indicated a willingness to leave the single market, strongly implied that the United Kingdom would not be part of the customs union in its current form and asserted that she would rather quit the EU with no permanent or transitional deal agreed than accept an arrangement which limited the United Kingdom’s future freedom of action. Impacts The government is likely to meet its preferred timetable for triggering Article 50 even if it has to obtain approval from parliament. The United Kingdom will probably lose its passporting rights, which allow UK-based banks to sell their products across the EEA. Paris and Frankfurt will probably benefit as banks may seek to move some of their staff out of London.


Significance This comes after the Telegraph reported last week that Soros had donated 400,000 pounds to the group. There is an ongoing debate as to whether the United Kingdom will in fact leave the EU. Central to it is the question of whether the UK government can unilaterally revoke its decision to trigger Article 50 in March 2017. Impacts Voters would be less likely to support the revocation of Article 50 if the Council imposed conditions that made membership less attractive. Revoking Article 50 and remaining in the EU would reduce damage to the UK economy. If Article 50 is revocable, Eurosceptic governments could be tempted to use the prospect of triggering it as leverage in EU negotiations.


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