Ageing workforce will dampen South Korea’s GDP outlook

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Us South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ageing Workforce ◽  
Pull Out ◽  
The Us ◽  
Net Export

Significance Year-on-year GDP growth was little changed at 2.7% in the first quarter after easing to 2.8% in 2015 and 2016 from an average of 3.7% in the five years to 2014. In 2016 consumer spending grew by less than 2.5%, machinery investment did not grow at all and net export volumes subtracted from growth. Impacts The US administration may threaten to pull out of the US-South Korea free-trade deal unless terms are renegotiated. Samsung in the first quarter of 2017 reported its best profits since 2013, but it will face an increasingly competitive market. Talk of reunification with North Korea as a solution to demographic pressures is fanciful.

GDP growth of 3% cannot be sustained in South Korea

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Military Spending ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Content Type

Significance This assumes optimistically that its policies are quick to boost growth in the second half of 2017. However, Bank of Korea data showed on July 27 that annual growth slowed to 2.7% in the second quarter from 2.9% in the first. Impacts South Korea's export-dependence puts it at a disadvantage against US pressure to renegotiate the bilateral free trade agreement. Pyongyang's nuclear capabilities and doubts about US commitment may lead Seoul to raise military spending, eroding fiscal strength faster. Unification with North Korea is a distant prospect with profound economic implications.

Prospects for the US economy in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us History ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Manufacturing Activity

Subject Prospects for the US economy in 2020. Significance Consumer spending is driving GDP growth this year and extending the longest expansion in US history. GDP growth will ease in the fourth quarter of 2019 but remains on track for 2.2-2.3% growth for the full year. Manufacturing activity is contracting, but other sectors are growing solidly and the labour market remains tight. This paradoxical performance raises the question of whether and how the manufacturing weakness might spread -- in particular, the extent to which it could drag on the rest of the economy, or even pull it into recession.

Rising Regionalism: 1998–2007

2019 ◽  
pp. 83-116
Author(s):  
Andrew Yeo
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
South Korea ◽  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Asian Financial Crisis ◽  
Institution Building ◽  
Us South ◽  
East Asia Summit ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asian Regionalism

Chapter 4 describes the rising phenomena of East Asian regionalism in the wake of the Asian financial crisis and demonstrates how debates between inclusive and exclusive variations of Asian regionalism played out in the development of the regional architecture. The chapter traces the establishment of the ASEAN Plus Three, the East Asia Summit, and the Six-Party Talks. Taken together, these three institutions signified greater political will behind regional multilateralism but also revealed the contentious nature of institution building. The discussion of multilateral developments is juxtaposed to an analysis of the US–South Korea and US-Thailand alliances, and their resilience in an era of greater multilateralism and expanding regionalism.

Trump may destabilise Korean Peninsula

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
North And South ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject US relations with North and South Korea under the incoming Trump administration. Significance The period of transition to Donald Trump's presidency in the United States has displayed neglect and misunderstanding of Korean peninsula affairs, adding to risks for the region as it approaches a period of significant strategic challenge. Impacts Until Trump's team enunciates policy on the Koreas, responses to events will be unprepared and reactive. Trump's policy will influence presidential elections in South Korea, where left-of-centre candidates question the value of the US alliance. The Trump administration’s policy and communication via Twitter heightens risk of misunderstanding within the region.

Missile defence plans raise conflict risk in East Asia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence System ◽  
Operational Capabilities ◽  
Pivot To Asia ◽  
The Us ◽  
Defence Policy ◽  
Active Defence ◽  
High Altitude Area ◽  
Conflict Risk

Subject Possible deployment of the US THAAD missile defence system in South Korea. Significance China has threatened South Korea with a serious breach in relations if it agrees to US deployment on its territory of a new theatre missile defence system, called THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense). The threat represents a change in China's posture toward South Korea that may be explained more by Beijing's stiffening opposition to the US rebalancing (the 'pivot to Asia') than by the purely operational capabilities and characteristics of THAAD. Impacts Deployment of THAAD is not yet a sure thing. Seoul will invest heavily in its own missile defence capabilities independent of THAAD. The prospect of any kind of diplomatic breakthrough between Beijing and Washington will have to await the next US administration. Japan's turn towards more active defence policy makes China feel threatened, but Beijing can do little to mitigate it.

Prospects for renewable energy to end-2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Energy Information Administration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pull Out ◽  
The Us ◽  
Energy Information

Subject Prospects for renewable energy to end-2017. Significance On June 1, US President Donald Trump's administration announced its intent to pull out of the Paris Agreement on climate change. Later that week, the US Energy Information Administration revealed in a report that renewables set a record of generating 10% of the country’s electric power in the month of March, highlighting that renewable energy has strong momentum that should carry it through shorter term policy fluctuations.

USMCA has pros and cons for Mexico

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mexico City ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Auto Industry ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Pros And Cons

Subject Implications of the USMCA. Significance Mexico’s Senate on December 12 ratified changes to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on free trade (USMCA), agreed on December 10. Several important changes were signed by the three governments in Mexico City, altering the original agreement signed in November 2018. Mexico now awaits ratification of the final deal in Washington and Ottawa. If enacted, the accord will replace NAFTA, which has determined the rules of trade among the countries since 1994. Impacts What was initially framed as a political victory for AMLO may lose lustre as details emerge on the concessions granted by his government. Long-term auto industry investments in Mexico may suffer due to new stipulations on issues such as regional content and wages. After the USMCA is formally enacted, Trump will probably focus on seeking to reduce the US trade deficit with China.

Australia-US ties face some further difficulty

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade Partner ◽  
Trump Administration ◽  
Security Alliance

Significance Morrison’s visit comes as the Trump administration pushes to build up partnerships with Indo-Pacific countries. Impacts US-Australian economic relations will remain strong, helped by a free-trade deal signed in 2005. Morrison’s refusal to be drawn into the crisis in US-Iran relations will strain the US-Australian security alliance. Australia’s main trade partner, China. will be irked if Morrison gets too close to Trump.

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