Leader deficit will not halt anti-corruption momentum

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Collective Action ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
British American Tobacco ◽  
Theresa May

Subject Anti-corruption trends. Significance The UK’s Serious Fraud Office (SFO) on August 1 confirmed that it was investigating allegations of bribery by British American Tobacco (BAT). The investigation, which follows the SFO’s 497-million-pound (638-million-dollar) fine on Rolls Royce earlier this year over bribery allegations, demonstrates the agency’s commitment to enforce the 2010 Bribery Act even when major multinationals are involved. The cases have been brought forward even though UK Prime Minister Theresa May and US President Donald Trump appear less committed to pursuing global corruption and bribery than their predecessors. Impacts Technology, such as apps and big data, will bring accountability tools to previously unempowered populations. Collective action initiatives, such as the Maritime Anti-Corruption Network, will sustain the anti-corruption momentum. Concerns that the SFO may be disbanded or merged with the National Crime Agency will hamper the former's ability to recruit and train staff.

Canada-US ties will see fewer irritants under Biden

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Keystone Xl ◽  
Keystone Xl Pipeline

Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.

US trade deal remains a key priority for UK government

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uk Government

Significance However, the departure of former US President Donald Trump -- who was an enthusiastic supporter of Brexit and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson -- has made this harder to achieve. Impacts Johnson will consider holding a snap election in 2023 to capitalise on the successful vaccination campaign and economic reopening. The failure to conclude a US-UK FTA would increase the prospects of an EU-UK veterinary agreement. Without a UK-EU veterinary agreement, the chances of persistent disruption on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland will grow.

Imran Khan is likely to become Pakistan prime minister

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Military

Significance The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s five-year term ended on May 31. PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif faces a tough fight to become prime minister, with the main challenge set to come from Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and further opposition provided by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Impacts With Khan as prime minister, the military would likely have free rein to pursue an anti-India foreign policy. Khan would step up his criticisms of the war in Afghanistan and likely have a difficult relationship with US President Donald Trump. Pakistan under any government will pursue balanced diplomacy in the Middle East, seeking good ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Prospects for India in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Regional Elections

Subject Prospects for India in 2017. Significance As 2017 approaches, both hope and uncertainty prevail regarding India's economic prospects. Politically, the opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government is still ineffective, but important regional elections will test the BJP next year. India's diplomatic outreach will be complicated not least by the election of Donald Trump as the next US president.

US-Vietnam security ties may trump trade

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Business Community ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Technology Transfers ◽  
Look Ahead ◽  
The Us ◽  
Vietnamese Diaspora

Subject US-Vietnam relations. Significance Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc met US President Donald Trump on May 31 in Washington, during a two-day visit in which he also conferred with the US business community and Vietnamese diaspora. Phuc’s visit is part of Hanoi’s plan to forge a relationship with the new US administration. The prime minister sought the continuance of the Obama-era US-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership and to look ahead to the APEC meeting in Da Nang in November, which Trump will attend. Impacts Even without the twelve-member TPP, Vietnam will improve its intellectual property and labour laws. Increased US security support may see more frictions over maritime issues between Beijing and a more confident Hanoi. Trump’s wish to protect US borders will cause Hanoi concern that Vietnamese student numbers in the United States will fall. If so, this could hit knowledge and technology transfers from the United States to Vietnam.

Pakistan’s Khan will not challenge military's power

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type

Subject Military influence in Pakistan. Significance Army Chief Qamar Javed Bajwa earlier this month visited Beijing to reassure China about Pakistan’s commitment to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Pakistan’s military strongly influences the country’s policy. It is widely believed that Prime Minister Imran Khan had the military’s support in winning the July general election. Impacts Any meeting between Khan and US President Donald Trump is likely to be uncomfortable, further straining Pakistan-US ties. Pakistan will strongly defend its commitment to CPEC. The state will increase harassment of political opponents and civil society critics.

UK effort to engage EU on Russia may falter

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Significance The statement is tougher than expected, and the EU also recalled its Moscow ambassador for consultations. The EU's shift is a win for UK Prime Minister Theresa May as she attempts to build a multilateral consensus rather than relying solely on unilateral retaliation. Impacts EU sectoral and individual sanctions on Russia will be extended in July and September despite reluctance among some members. Talk of blocking Russian natural gas imports is impracticable. The US Congress will pressure the White House to target individuals identified in January 2018 'oligarch list'.

New NAFTA helps Canada’s Trudeau hurdle some problems

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dispute Resolution ◽  
Healthcare System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
Supply Management ◽  
Public Healthcare ◽  
System Reform ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Auto Parts

Significance Along with Mexico’s leader President Enrique Pena Nieto, whose term ends on December 1, the new US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be signed by US President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in November, though it then needs ratifying in the three countries. Canada was the last holdout after US and Mexican negotiators reached a deal in August; Canada made concessions on dairy, copyright terms and auto parts rules to safeguard Ottawa’s priorities in the USMCA, notably independent dispute resolution on anti-dumping and countervailing duties. Impacts Canadian pharm firms face increased market competition from US firms newly protected by additional patent protections. Canada’s public healthcare system faces new costs from biological and other new medicines; system reform calls could grow. Canadian dairy will lose some market share to US products but survive (most of the Supply Management system remains). Canadian retailers will see some small revenue slumps as more Canadians use lower duties for US shopping.

Fragile Canada-US relations could fracture further

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Automobile Industry ◽  
North American ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bilateral Negotiations

Significance The tariffs, on 12.8 billion US dollars’ worth of US goods, respond to US tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium exports. This could mark the beginning of a sharp deterioration in relations between the two close economic partners and military allies. The pending US response by President Donald Trump could include tariffs on Canada’s automobile sector, which would disrupt the closely integrated North American automobile industry. Impacts Both countries’ governments will gain new tariff revenues, but lose money from higher unemployment longer term. US steel and aluminium will still be supplied by Canadian suppliers, but increased costs could see firms fail. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will push to keep NAFTA renegotiations going, seeking to work with Mexico. NAFTA renegotiations will stall, if not terminate; separate bilateral negotiations (US-Canada and US-Mexico) are then likely. Bilateral trade talks could cost Trudeau politically if he is seen to bow unduly to Trump.

Kim-Trump meeting presages US climbdown

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type

Subject The outlook for North Korea-US denuclearisation talks. Significance On June 30, President Donald Trump used a long-planned trip to South Korea after the G20 summit in Osaka to visit the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ), for his third meeting in barely a year with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Impacts Working talks will resume, but progress may depend on Pyongyang gaining partial sanctions relief. Inter-Korean relations will likely remain stalled unless sanctions are eased. The peninsula has not become risk-free; Kim may miscalculate or hardliners could push for policies even Trump cannot accept. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seeks his own summit with Kim; Kim has scant incentive to grant one.

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